Implementing coal transitions

The report argues that coal transitions are already underway due to economic shifts, the falling cost of renewables, and environmental concerns, independent of climate policy. Through analysis of China, India, South Africa, Poland, Germany, and Australia, it concludes that phasing out coal is technically feasible and cost-neutral or advantageous for consumers. It emphasizes that a 'just transition' for workers and communities is possible through early stakeholder consultation, tailored workforce programs, and regional economic diversification. The document also warns coal exporters of the risks of stranded assets and the potential for abrupt declines in global demand.

• Coal transitions are already occurring globally, driven by a combination of climate policy and non-climate factors. Global coal consumption may begin to decline by the early 2020s, with 36 governments and 28 companies already committing to phase out coal from the power sector by 2030.
• The transition from coal to alternative energy sources is technically feasible and affordable. In the six studied countries, coal can be replaced by 2040-2050 with a mix of solar, wind, hydro, biomass, nuclear, and natural gas without significantly increasing electricity costs for consumers.
• Renewable energy is becoming competitive with or cheaper than coal. In India, renewable-based mini-grids and off-grid solutions are identified as more cost-effective and reliable for providing universal electricity access to poor populations than new industrial-scale coal plants.
• A 'just transition' for workers is achievable through early preparation and meaningful stakeholder participation. Effective strategies include setting clear phase-down timelines, providing pension bridges for older workers, and prioritizing on-the-job retraining and worker transfer programs over stand-alone retraining courses.
• Regional economic resilience can be built through 'related diversification' and 'smart specialisation,' which leverage a region's existing strengths (such as infrastructure or workforce skills) to attract new industries. This is necessary to avoid the 'lock-in' effect where incumbent industries resist economic diversification.
• Major coal exporters face significant risks from stranded assets and non-linear declines in global demand. Even a 5-10% drop in Chinese coal demand could eliminate approximately one-third of the global export market.
• To avoid stranded assets, governments should cap approvals for new coal-fired power or mining capacity after 2020 and signal that public funds will not be used to compensate assets closed due to climate policy.
• Coal transitions can deliver significant co-benefits, such as reducing water conflicts in water-stressed regions of India and eliminating major contributors to air pollution (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) in China and India.

APA

Sartor, O. (2018). Implementing coal transitions. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Coal-Synthesis-Report_2018.pdf

Chicago

Sartor, O. Implementing coal transitions. Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Coal-Synthesis-Report_2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sartor |first1=O. |title=Implementing coal transitions |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=September 2018 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Coal-Synthesis-Report_2018.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sartor2018implementing, author = {Sartor, O.}, title = {{Implementing coal transitions}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, month = sep, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Coal-Synthesis-Report_2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }