Coal transitions in Australia

The report analyzes the inevitable decline of Australia's coal sector, driven by the cost-competitiveness of renewables and falling global demand for thermal coal. It presents two domestic transition scenarios: a 'moderate' one compatible with Australia's NDC and a 'faster' one aligned with a 2-degree global goal. The document highlights the risks of sudden plant closures, using the Hazelwood power station as a case study to argue for more predictable, planned transitions and a 'just transition' framework to support affected regional communities and workers.

• Australia is a major global coal supplier, providing approximately 19.3% of the world's thermal coal trade and 60% of the world's metallurgical coal trade as of 2016.
• The domestic coal-fired power fleet is aging, with 68% of the 23.1 GW nominal capacity in the National Electricity Market (NEM) being older than 30 years.
• New coal-fired power stations are no longer commercially viable in Australia because the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for wind and solar PV is significantly lower.
• In the 'moderate' transition scenario, coal use would drop to less than half of current levels by 2030 and decline by over 90% by 2040, aligning with Australia's NDC under the Paris Agreement.
• The 'faster' transition scenario projects coal use to be reduced by approximately 30% by 2025 and by two-thirds by 2030, supporting a global 'two degrees or less' goal.
• The closure of the Hazelwood power station in March 2017, Australia's largest plant, was sudden and based on commercial grounds, specifically the $400 million cost required for boiler repairs to meet safety standards.
• Econometric analysis of coal plant closures between 2010 and 2017 indicates that affected regions experienced an average increase in unemployment of approximately 0.7 percentage points, primarily among men.
• The report argues that Australian governments should stop providing subsidies or preferential treatment for coal mines and transport infrastructure to avoid creating stranded assets.
• To ensure an orderly transition, the report recommends establishing stable policy frameworks, including a predictable carbon price signal and mechanisms for the planned closure of power stations.

APA

Jotzo, F., Mazouz, S., & Wiseman, J. (2018). Coal transitions in Australia. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Australia_2018.pdf

Chicago

Jotzo, Frank, Salim Mazouz, and John Wiseman. Coal transitions in Australia. Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Australia_2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jotzo |first1=Frank |last2=Mazouz |first2=Salim |last3=Wiseman |first3=John |title=Coal transitions in Australia |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2018 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Australia_2018.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jotzo2018coal, author = {Jotzo, Frank and Mazouz, Salim and Wiseman, John}, title = {{Coal transitions in Australia}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Australia_2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }