What does “peak coal” mean for international coal exporters?

The report argues that global thermal coal demand is likely to peak and decline by the early 2020s, driven by technological advances in renewables, air quality concerns, and macroeconomic shifts in China and India. Using the COALMOD-World model, it demonstrates that even scenarios not fully aligned with the 2°C Paris Agreement goal can severely impact major exporters like Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, and the USA. The analysis highlights that the US is the most vulnerable 'marginal' supplier, while South Africa is heavily dependent on Indian demand. The authors warn that new long-lived investments in coal mining run a high risk of becoming stranded assets.

• Global demand for steam coal is projected to stagnate until 2020 and then decline during the early-to-mid-2020s in the most likely central scenarios.
• The decline in coal demand is driven by a combination of climate policies and non-climate factors, including the rapid cost reduction of renewable energy and energy storage, as well as air quality and water scarcity concerns in developing nations.
• China's coal demand has likely peaked and may decline in the early-to-mid-2020s due to macroeconomic rebalancing away from energy-intensive industry and a push to phase out coal in the heating sector.
• India's coal demand growth is expected to be muted in the mid-term due to aggressive renewable energy targets and the deployment of more efficient supercritical plants that consume less coal.
• Major coal exporters—specifically Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa—face significant risks because China and India account for approximately half of global coal imports; declines in these markets cannot be offset elsewhere.
• The United States acts as a 'marginal' supplier in Asian markets due to higher transport costs from the lack of West Coast export terminals, making it the first to be hit by a shrinking global market.
• South Africa's export economy is highly vulnerable due to its lack of diversification, with India serving as its almost exclusive customer in moderate climate scenarios.
• Indonesia is currently the largest exporter in the global market, but its production potential will eventually be limited by the depletion of its coal reserves toward 2050.
• New long-term investments in thermal coal mining, such as the Carmichael Coal Project in Australia, face a high risk of becoming stranded assets even under moderate climate ambition.

APA

Holz, F., Kafemann, I. V., Sartor, O., Scherwath, T., & Spencer, T. (2018). What does “peak coal” mean for international coal exporters? Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/coaltransitions_finalreport_coal-global-trade_2018.pdf

Chicago

Holz, Franziska, Ivo Valentin Kafemann, Oliver Sartor, Tim Scherwath, and Thomas Spencer. What does “peak coal” mean for international coal exporters? Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/coaltransitions_finalreport_coal-global-trade_2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Holz |first1=Franziska |last2=Kafemann |first2=Ivo Valentin |last3=Sartor |first3=Oliver |last4=Scherwath |first4=Tim |last5=Spencer |first5=Thomas |title=What does “peak coal” mean for international coal exporters? |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2018 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/coaltransitions_finalreport_coal-global-trade_2018.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{holz2018what, author = {Holz, Franziska and Kafemann, Ivo Valentin and Sartor, Oliver and Scherwath, Tim and Spencer, Thomas}, title = {{What does “peak coal” mean for international coal exporters?}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/coaltransitions_finalreport_coal-global-trade_2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }