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The report argues that global thermal coal demand is likely to peak and decline by the early 2020s, driven by technological advances in renewables, air quality concerns, and macroeconomic shifts in China and India. Using the COALMOD-World model, it demonstrates that even scenarios not fully aligned with the 2°C Paris Agreement goal can severely impact major exporters like Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, and the USA. The analysis highlights that the US is the most vulnerable 'marginal' supplier, while South Africa is heavily dependent on Indian demand. The authors warn that new long-lived investments in coal mining run a high risk of becoming stranded assets.