Coal transition in Poland

The report analyzes the necessity of transitioning Poland's coal-dependent energy system to meet global climate goals. It compares a 'baseline' business-as-usual scenario with a '<2°C-consistent' scenario, the latter requiring a 67% reduction in per capita CO2 emissions by 2050. The analysis highlights that while the power sector must shift toward renewables and nuclear energy, the transition's social viability depends on managing the decline of the mining sector—particularly in the Śląskie region—through natural attrition, retraining, and conditional financial support to avoid the social exclusion seen in previous regional closures.

• To align with global efforts to limit warming to 2°C, Poland would need to reduce CO2 emissions per capita to 2.80t by 2050, representing a 67% decrease from 2010 levels.
• The most cost-effective path to this target involves the complete replacement of coal with alternative energy sources in the power sector by 2050, with the possible exception of existing combined heat and power (CHP) units.
• Under the <2°C scenario, total coal consumption in the Polish economy is projected to fall by 44% by 2030 and reach less than one-third of 2010 levels by 2050.
• Employment in the coal sector will need to be reduced by 47% between 2015 and 2030, and by at least 77% between 2015 and 2050, dropping from 94,000 to an estimated 27,000 workers.
• The report suggests that massive layoffs may be unnecessary because the required reduction in labour demand can be largely met through natural attrition and a hiring freeze, aided by the ageing mining workforce.
• The Śląskie region is disproportionately affected by the transition, as it hosts 90% of hard coal mining employment and mining accounts for 8.0% of male employment in the region.
• Coal miners are particularly vulnerable to transition shocks due to low educational attainment, narrow skill sets, and a significant wage premium compared to other sectors, such as manufacturing.
• Existing lignite mines are expected to face a natural decline in productivity and resource exhaustion by the 2030s, regardless of climate policy.
• Past experience in the Wałbrzych region shows that rapid, spatially concentrated mine closures without adequate policy response can lead to persistent unemployment, social exclusion, and the emergence of illegal 'bootleg pits'.
• To ensure a just transition, the report recommends conditional financial support that rewards ex-miners for remaining employed, rather than unconditional payments which are often spent on consumption.

APA

Baran, J., Lewandowski, P., Szpor, A., & Witajewski-Baltvilks, J. (2018). Coal transition in Poland. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Poland_2018.pdf

Chicago

Baran, Jan, Piotr Lewandowski, Aleksander Szpor, and Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks. Coal transition in Poland. Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Poland_2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Baran |first1=Jan |last2=Lewandowski |first2=Piotr |last3=Szpor |first3=Aleksander |last4=Witajewski-Baltvilks |first4=Jan |title=Coal transition in Poland |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2018 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Poland_2018.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{baran2018coal, author = {Baran, Jan and Lewandowski, Piotr and Szpor, Aleksander and Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan}, title = {{Coal transition in Poland}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Poland_2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }