Coal transition in India

The report examines India's coal dependency and the challenges of transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Using the AIM/Enduse model, it compares the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) scenario with two 2°C pathways: a 'conventional' one relying on Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and a 'sustainable' one shifting toward renewables, gas, and nuclear power. Key findings highlight the risk of significant stranded assets—including approximately 220 billion tonnes of unutilized coal reserves valued at USD 6.7 trillion—and the increasing vulnerability of coal power plants to water shortages, which already cause substantial generation losses. The report argues that while coal remains a mainstay until 2030, a managed phase-out is necessary to meet global climate targets, requiring synchronized actions in energy efficiency, renewable scaling, and the retirement of inefficient sub-critical plants.

• India's current energy system is heavily dependent on coal, which provides 70% of its power generation and accounts for 65% of its CO2 emissions.
• Under a 2°C sustainable scenario, coal in the power sector is phased out by 2038, replaced by natural gas, renewables, and nuclear power, leading to a 59% reduction in steam coal demand compared to the INDC scenario.
• A significant volume of coal reserves is at risk of becoming stranded assets; approximately 220 billion tonnes may remain unutilized, with a notional value of roughly USD 6.7 trillion.
• Approximately 100 GW of coal-based capacity added in the last decade is vulnerable to techno-economic-regulatory shocks, as roughly 70% of this capacity uses inefficient sub-critical PC technology.
• Water scarcity is a critical risk for coal-fired power plants, with 45% of plants stranded during certain times of the year located in water-stressed regions; a one-day shutdown of a 1 GW plant results in revenue losses of approximately INR 4-10 Crores (USD 0.6-1.5 million).
• Despite a 'zero-import' policy for thermal coal, India would still require at least 50 to 100 million tonnes of steam coal imports to satisfy demand from import-based power plants.
• To achieve 2°C-compatible transitions, India must scale up renewables—targeting 175 GW of solar by 2030—and increase nuclear capacity to 30 GW by 2030 and 50 GW by 2050 in the sustainable scenario.
• The 2°C conventional scenario relies heavily on the deployment of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) in power and industry sectors to achieve a cumulative emission reduction of 6 Gt by 2050.

APA

Vishwanathan, S. S., Garg, A., & Tiwari, V. (2018). Coal transition in India. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_India_2018.pdf

Chicago

Vishwanathan, Saritha S., Amit Garg, and Vineet Tiwari. Coal transition in India. Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_India_2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Vishwanathan |first1=Saritha S. |last2=Garg |first2=Amit |last3=Tiwari |first3=Vineet |title=Coal transition in India |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2018 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_India_2018.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vishwanathan2018coal, author = {Vishwanathan, Saritha S. and Garg, Amit and Tiwari, Vineet}, title = {{Coal transition in India}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_India_2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }