Coal transition in China

The report analyzes two pathways for China's coal transition: a PEAK-2030 scenario aligned with its INDC and a more ambitious PEAK-2025 scenario. It argues that an early peak is possible through stringent policies in the power, industry, and building sectors, while emphasizing the need to manage socio-economic risks such as stranded assets in the electricity sector and job losses in coal-producing regions. The analysis highlights significant co-benefits for air quality and public health, as well as the potential for reducing methane emissions from coal mining.

• China could achieve an early peak of CO2 emissions in 2025 at a level of 10.2 Gt, subsequently dropping to 9.93 Gt by 2030, which is 0.4 Gt lower than the PEAK-2030 scenario.
• Under the PEAK-2025 scenario, coal-fired electricity generation would decline sharply to 422.1 TWh by 2050, with non-fossil energy carriers providing approximately 90% of total electricity generation by that time.
• The electricity sector faces a high risk of stranded assets; the report suggests the government should immediately stop building new coal power plants and consider an auction mechanism or a strategic reserve (similar to Germany) to manage these assets.
• Phasing out coal provides significant health and environmental co-benefits, as coal combustion was responsible for 91.18% of total SO2, 68.56% of NOx, and 52.74% of primary PM2.5 emissions in 2012.
• A transition to the PEAK-2025 scenario would result in marked reductions in fugitive methane (CH4) emissions from coal mining, with a reduction of 100.9 MtCO2e by 2050 compared to the PEAK-2030 scenario.
• The transition poses social risks for coal-producing regions and low-education workers; the report recommends labor policies for reemployment and central government transition funds to prevent demographic decline.
• Decarbonizing the building sector requires a combination of controlling floor area, improving energy efficiency, and shifting the energy mix, which could reduce the share of coal in final energy consumption from 43% in 2010 to 13% in 2050.

APA

Fei, T. (2018). Coal transition in China. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_China_2018.pdf

Chicago

Fei, Teng. Coal transition in China. Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_China_2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fei |first1=Teng |title=Coal transition in China |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2018 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_China_2018.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fei2018coal, author = {Fei, Teng}, title = {{Coal transition in China}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_China_2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }