Coal transition in Germany

The report analyzes Germany's coal transition, contrasting the historical phase-out of hard coal with the more abrupt decline of lignite in East Germany. It presents two future scenarios: an NDC-based pathway and a 2C-compatible pathway, the latter requiring a more rapid shutdown of coal capacities, potentially by 2025-2040. The authors argue that while technically and economically feasible, a successful transition requires a combination of strong carbon pricing, national policy instruments like emissions performance standards, and comprehensive structural support for affected mining regions to ensure social justice.

• Germany's historical hard coal production became uncompetitive against imports in 1964, but subsidies maintained production levels until 1990, with a gradual phase-out concluding in 2018.
• Lignite production in eastern Germany nearly doubled between the 1950s and 1990, but crashed by more than half after reunification due to low productivity compared to western Germany.
• Under the NDC-based scenario, total coal consumption is projected to decrease by 52.7% by 2030 and 86.5% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels, with lignite nearly completely phased out by 2050.
• The 2C-compatible scenario requires more aggressive reductions, with coal consumption falling by 44.3% by 2020, 76.8% by 2030, and 95.1% by 2050.
• To align with 2C targets, studies suggest a rapid shutdown of coal capacity in the early 2020s, with a complete phase-out occurring between 2025 and 2040.
• The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has been ineffective in phasing out coal in Germany due to low carbon prices since 2008, necessitating additional national instruments.
• Proposed national policy instruments to accelerate the phase-out include a CO2 emissions performance standard (EPS), a coal phase-out law with fixed schedules, and a 'climate contribution' fee for older plants.
• Decarbonizing the industrial sector, particularly steel production, is a major challenge; the 2C scenario relies on carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) or alternatives like hydrogen direct reduction.
• A 'just transition' for mining regions requires structural funds for education and research, guaranteed retirement and retraining for workers, and the securing of funds for renaturation.
• Historical evidence from the Ruhr area shows that centrally decided large projects were often ineffective, suggesting that future transitions should shift decision-making to regional levels to utilize local potentials.

APA

Brauers, H., Herpich, P., von Hirschhausen, C., Jürgens, I., Neuhoff, K., Oei, P.-Y., & Richstein, J. (2018). Coal transition in Germany. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Germany_2018.pdf

Chicago

Brauers, Hanna, Philipp Herpich, Christian von Hirschhausen, Ingmar Jürgens, Karsten Neuhoff, Pao-Yu Oei, and Jörn Richstein. Coal transition in Germany. Climate Strategies, 2018. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Germany_2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{brauers2018coal, author = {Brauers, Hanna and Herpich, Philipp and von Hirschhausen, Christian and Jürgens, Ingmar and Neuhoff, Karsten and Oei, Pao-Yu and Richstein, Jörn}, title = {{Coal transition in Germany}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2018}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Coaltransitions_finalreport_Germany_2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }