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Бум и Крах Угля
In 2024, global coal power reached a 20-year low in new capacity additions (44 GW), though the total global fleet still grew by 18.8 GW. While the EU27 saw a fourfold increase in decommissioned capacity and the UK closed its last coal plant, China saw record construction starts (94 GW) and India proposed record new capacity (38 GW). Russia has emerged as a leading developer of new coal projects, ranking fifth globally for development capacity, with plans focused on Siberia and the Far East to support energy demand and the domestic coal industry.
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Document type: Report
Yükseliş ve Çöküş 2025 Küresel Kömürlü Termik Santral Takibi
In 2024, global coal-fired power capacity additions reached their lowest level in 20 years at 44 GW, though net capacity still increased by 18.8 GW due to continued growth in China and India. While the EU saw a fourfold increase in retired capacity and the UK became the sixth country to fully exit coal since the Paris Agreement, China and India saw record-high numbers of new plant starts and proposals. In OECD countries, planned coal plants have dropped from 142 in 2015 to five today, with Turkey and Australia remaining among the few with active projects. Turkey specifically is noted as the only OECD country actively increasing coal-based electricity production, despite a 2053 net-zero target and the recent approval of an expansion at the Afşin-Elbistan complex.
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Document type: Report
活況と不況-石炭 2025 世界の石炭火力発電所の計画追跡
In 2024, global new coal capacity reached its lowest level in 20 years, though total capacity still grew by 18.8 GW due to record construction starts in China and high proposal numbers in India. While OECD nations have seen planned coal plants drop from 142 in 2015 to 5 currently, Japan and South Korea are pursuing ammonia co-firing to extend coal use, a strategy the report describes as costly and inconsistent with Paris Agreement goals.
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Document type: Report
Boom and Bust Coal 2025
In 2024, the world commissioned the lowest amount of new coal power capacity in twenty years (44 GW), yet the global fleet still grew by 18.8 GW because additions exceeded retirements (25.2 GW). While the UK became the sixth country to phase out coal entirely and EU27 retirements grew fourfold, China and India dominated new developments, accounting for 92% of all newly proposed coal capacity. China saw its highest construction starts since 2015 (94 GW), and India recorded its highest year for new proposals (38.4 GW). In the OECD, proposals dropped to five, but annual retirements must more than triple to 70 GW to align with 1.5C pathways. Other trends include a surge in captive coal plants in Indonesia, the promotion of ammonia co-firing in Japan and South Korea, and continued coal pursuit in Russia, Mongolia, and Central Asia.
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Document type: Report
Boom and Bust Coal 2025
In 2024, the world commissioned the lowest amount of new coal power capacity in twenty years (44 GW), yet the global fleet still grew by 18.8 GW because additions exceeded retirements. While OECD countries and the EU are accelerating phaseouts—with the UK becoming the sixth country to eliminate coal entirely—China and India continue to drive global expansion. China saw its highest construction starts since 2015 (94 GW), and India recorded its highest year for new proposals (38.4 GW). Outside these two nations, coal development has declined for ten consecutive years. However, the report notes that current retirement rates in OECD countries must more than triple to meet 1.5°C warming targets.
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Document type: Report
Boom and Bust Coal 2025
In 2024, global new coal capacity reached its lowest level in two decades at 44 GW, though China and India continued significant expansions. While the EU27 saw a fourfold increase in plant closures and the UK shut its last coal plant, Indonesia faces a contradictory trend: overall proposed capacity is down 90% since 2015, but 'captive' coal plants for industrial use are surging. Indonesia's transition is further complicated by conflicting government statements on a 2040 phase-out, the withdrawal of the US from the JETP leadership, and record coal production reaching 831 million tons in 2024.
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Document type: Report
Boom and Bust Coal 2025
In 2024, the world commissioned the lowest amount of new coal power capacity in twenty years (44 GW), yet the global coal fleet still grew by 18.8 GW because additions exceeded retirements. The report highlights a stark divergence: while the UK became coal-free and EU27 retirements quadrupled, China saw its highest construction starts since 2015 (94 GW) and India recorded its highest year for new proposals (38.4 GW). Together, China and India accounted for 92% of all newly proposed coal capacity in 2024. In the OECD, proposals have plummeted from 142 in 2015 to five today, though annual retirements must more than triple to 70 GW to meet 1.5°C pathways. The report also notes the rise of 'captive' coal plants in Indonesia and the promotion of ammonia co-firing in Japan and South Korea as strategies to prolong coal use.
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Document type: Report
Carbon offsets primer
The document examines the systemic failures of carbon offsetting, highlighting that most credits—particularly those for forestry and renewable energy—lack additionality and environmental integrity. It argues that offsetting often leads to an overall increase in emissions by delaying necessary mitigation and allowing continued investment in high-emitting technologies. The briefing concludes that carbon avoidance and reduction offsets have no place in ambitious climate policies, recommending that priority be given to direct emissions cuts and non-market-based climate finance.
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Document type: Briefing
The Fall of Bukavu: Rwanda, M23 and the Battle for Influence in the Eastern DRC
In February 2025, M23 rebels captured Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province in the eastern DRC, following the previous seizure of Goma. The document argues that Rwanda's support for M23 is driven by a combination of national security concerns—specifically the threat posed by the Democratic Forces of the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)—and economic interests related to minerals like gold, tin, and tantalum. It further notes that rivalry with Uganda and a perceived weakness in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have emboldened Rwanda's actions. Despite calls from the US, France, the UK, and China for Rwandan forces to withdraw, the international response remains tepid, with few concrete sanctions or aid cuts implemented.
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Document type: Research paper
Roadmap to Reform: Building Sustainable Transit for Africa’s Cities
The paper examines the impact of colonial legacies and rapid urbanisation on African transportation, highlighting the contrast between South Africa's high-cost Gautrain and more inclusive BRT systems like Rea Vaya and MyCiTi. It identifies the dominance of informal paratransit, such as minibuses, as a critical gap in regulation and safety, noting high road fatality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and Addis Ababa. The author advocates for a holistic approach combining infrastructure, travel subsidies, and the integration of informal networks, while cautioning against unchecked car ownership and conditional foreign aid.
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Document type: Research paper
Pre-SONA Considerations for Moving SA onto a Growth Trajectory
The briefing argues that South Africa's economic growth is contingent upon strengthening political institutions, professionalising the public service, and enhancing electoral accountability. It calls for a cohesive foreign policy to restore regional leadership within SADC and the AfCFTA, a decisive plan to combat corruption and gender-based violence, and the effective operationalisation of the Climate Change Act through local government reform and private-public partnerships.
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Document type: Briefing
Pre-SONA considerations for moving South Africa onto a growth trajectory
The report argues that South Africa's economic growth is contingent upon strengthening political institutions and accountability. It recommends a ten-point plan focusing on electoral reform, the professionalization of the public service, and the governance redesign of state-owned enterprises like Eskom and Transnet. Regionally, it urges a more proactive role in SADC to defend electoral integrity and improve security mechanisms. On climate, it advocates for the operationalization of the Climate Change Act and a just energy transition through public-private partnerships.
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Document type: Report
Repositioning Africa in a rapidly changing global order
The report argues that Africa remains hindered by colonial legacies, financial dependency, and weak institutional leadership. It highlights critical crises in food security, youth unemployment, and rising conflict, while critiquing the AU's leadership selection process and its focus on reparations over immediate structural reforms. The document recommends a more proactive AU Commission, a reformed Peace and Security Architecture, and a unified foreign policy to transition Africa from a passive observer to a powerful global actor.
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Document type: Report
Digging Deeper: Embedding Minerals Sovereignty in Africa’s Mining Value Chains
The document examines systemic barriers in Africa's mining sector, including tax avoidance, high borrowing costs, and technological monopolies. It proposes a 'resource leverage strategy' to exchange mineral access for technology transfer and local beneficiation, while advocating for the adoption of African-led financial frameworks like the African Continental Ratings Agency (AfCRA) and AMREC-PARC to foster economic independence.
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Document type: Policy brief
Unearthing the Reality of “Zombie Energy Systems” in Africa’s Energy Transition
The paper defines Zombie Energy Systems (ZES) as outdated, inefficient, and environmentally harmful energy assets that persist in Africa despite being obsolete. It argues that the current international focus on new renewable energy projects overlooks the necessity of decommissioning or rehabilitating these failing systems, which include ageing power plants, inefficient grids, and second-hand appliances. The authors trace the origins of ZES to colonial legacies, poor maintenance, and political corruption, and propose a holistic strategy involving comprehensive system assessments, regulatory strengthening, and local capacity building to ensure a just and effective energy transition.
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Document type: Research paper
Mapping Africa’s Green Mineral Partnerships
The report maps nearly one hundred agreements on critical minerals between African states and global actors, highlighting the strategic competition for resources. It identifies a lack of transparency in these deals and notes that while China and Russia are prominent, other actors like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are expanding their footprints. The analysis emphasizes that these partnerships often reflect broader geopolitical and historical ties rather than just economic needs.
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Document type: Report
Pan-African and Regional Trade and Policy for the Food Systems Transition
The document examines the intersection of trade policy and food systems transformation in Africa, specifically advocating for the alignment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) with agroecological principles. It identifies significant hurdles to this transition, including high intra-continental tariffs, complex non-tariff barriers, and the dominance of industrial agriculture. The briefing emphasizes the role of territorial markets in supporting smallholder farmers and calls for philanthropic investment to bridge funding gaps, as agroecology currently receives less than 10% of total agricultural funding in Africa. It provides specific recommendations for philanthropies to support local food trade, advocate for policy changes that recognize ecological services, and invest in capacity-building for agroecological communities.
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Document type: Briefing
Gender and Women in Agroecological Transition
The document argues that while agroecology offers a sustainable alternative to industrial agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, these transitions are not gender-neutral and often overlook the systemic barriers facing women. It highlights how women's indigenous knowledge is critical for biodiversity and resilience, yet they face significant hurdles in land tenure, financing, and market access. The brief provides recommendations for philanthropic and governmental support to ensure equity, including long-term funding and investment in women-led cooperatives and processing infrastructure.
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Document type: Policy brief
Urban Food Environments
The document argues that Africa's rapid urban growth necessitates immediate investment in food environments to prevent unhealthy path dependencies. It identifies a funding gap of US$100 million over the next five years across four key initiatives: AfriFOODlinks, the Africa Food Environment Research Network (FERN), the Living Off-Grid Food & Infrastructure Collaboration (LOGIC), and the Resilient Municipal Market Fund (ReMark). The brief emphasizes that urban food environments are shaped by physical, economic, social, and infrastructural factors, and suggests aligning these with agroecological principles to improve resilience, equity, and resource efficiency.
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Document type: Briefing
Food Retail, Markets and Informality in Africa
The document examines 'territorial markets' in Africa—informal retail spaces where 70–90% of agricultural products are traded. It argues that while these markets are essential for food security, nutrition, and the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and women, they are frequently neglected or criminalized by governments. Through case studies in Benin, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, the brief highlights systemic failures in infrastructure and legal protections, advocating for philanthropic and government investment to align these markets with agroecological principles.
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Document type: Briefing