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The research predicts a global decline in internal armed conflict, with the proportion of countries in conflict expected to drop from 15.1% in 2009 to 7.1% by 2050. This trend is driven primarily by projected improvements in education and infant mortality rates. While Western Asia and North Africa are expected to see significant reductions, conflicts are predicted to remain more concentrated in East, Central, and Southern Africa, as well as East and South Asia.

The document argues that climate compatible development (CCD) planning in developing countries is often skewed toward external accountability to secure international finance, which can lead to ineffective domestic outcomes. To address this, the authors analyze experiences from the Rio Conventions and Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) processes, recommending multi-stakeholder engagement, evidence-based planning, wide communication, integrated planning across sectors and scales, and robust monitoring and evaluation to ensure that CCD strategies address real domestic needs while meeting international standards.

The report challenges the 'miracle crop' narrative of jatropha, presenting ten reasons why industrial-scale plantations fail. It argues that jatropha requires fertile land, significant water, and chemical inputs to be productive, contradicting claims that it thrives on marginal land. This leads to competition with food production, displacement of local communities, and biodiversity loss. Economically, the report highlights a pattern of failed investment projects and unrealistic yield promises. Environmentally, it asserts that land-use change for jatropha can increase carbon emissions, undermining its purpose as a climate solution.

The document outlines ten reasons why jatropha is an unsustainable investment, noting that yields are often lower than claimed and the crop requires significant water and fertile land rather than thriving on marginal soils. It highlights negative impacts including the displacement of local communities, loss of biodiversity, and competition with food production. The text concludes that large-scale plantations are not economically viable and may increase greenhouse gas emissions due to land-use change.

The document provides a comprehensive survey of quantitative research on the health impacts of climate change, categorizing studies by their methodological approach (primary, secondary, and comparative risk assessments) and the statistical models employed (time-series, non-parametric, and panel/spatial models). It highlights the complex relationship between climatic variables and diseases, particularly malaria, and reviews major global reports from the WHO and the Stern Review to outline the broader economic and public health implications of global warming.

The document assesses Saudi Arabia's transition toward a diversified, non-oil-dependent economy and the resulting commercial opportunities for South Africa. It highlights Saudi Arabia's economic reforms, including the development of six mega-cities and the opening of its investment climate through SAGIA. The authors argue that South Africa is currently lagging behind other emerging powers like China and India in exploiting these opportunities and recommends reviving dormant bilateral mechanisms such as the Joint Economic Commission to attract Saudi investment and expand South African trade in the Gulf region.

The report argues that AWM interventions often fail to capture holistic impacts beyond direct project boundaries, frequently overlooking negative externalities and socio-economic shifts. To address this, the authors propose a synthesised M&E framework based on five livelihood capitals: financial, human, natural, physical, and social. The document emphasizes the necessity of baseline assessments, participatory M&E, and the inclusion of both project-level and impact-level indicators to facilitate adaptive management. It applies this framework to review the M&E practices of International Development Enterprises (IDE) and IDE-India, and demonstrates its use in a baseline assessment in the Mkindo watershed of Tanzania.

The document examines how natural resources—both through abundance and scarcity—fuel social and armed conflicts in Africa. It argues that traditional peace processes often fail by focusing on 'high politics' (like power-sharing) while ignoring the underlying political economy of resource distribution. Using the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (IC/GLR), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) as examples, the author advocates for integrating natural resource management into diplomatic and mediation frameworks to achieve sustainable peace.

The document analyzes China's 'exceptionalism' in Africa, a policy framework based on the 1955 Bandung conference principles of sovereignty, non-interference, and mutual benefit. While this approach seeks to differentiate China from Western powers by emphasizing political equality and a non-donor-recipient model, the author identifies three primary challenges to its sustainability: the tension between non-interference and the protection of economic interests, the gap between nominal sovereign equality and actual power asymmetry, and the lack of central government control over autonomous sub-state and private actors.

The DRC faces significant hurdles in establishing state authority and territorial integrity, complicated by a stalled decentralisation process and border disputes over oil and gas deposits. The transition from MONUC to MONUSCO represents a symbolic shift toward stabilisation, while the STAREC programme attempts to restore basic institutional infrastructure in conflict zones. Resource governance remains precarious due to illegal mineral trade, lack of monitoring technology for oil exports, and legal disputes over mining contracts involving international corporations.

The document examines the 2010 Burundian elections, which were marked by a widespread opposition boycott of the presidential race and a subsequent shift toward one-party dominance by the CNDD-FDD. It traces the roots of this crisis to constitutional disputes and the ruling party's perceived authoritarianism since 2005. The author warns that while a full-scale rebellion is currently remote, the lack of trust and exclusion of opposition parties could lead to gradual political deterioration or renewed violence. Recommendations include urgent international mediation by the East African Community and the UN, as well as long-term capacity building to transform former rebel movements into democratic political parties.

The report examines the surge in land acquisitions across Africa for agrofuel production, driven largely by EU mandatory targets for renewable transport fuels. It finds that approximately 5 million hectares of land have been acquired for fuel crops, often without community consent. The document argues that these 'land grabs' threaten food security by competing with food crops for fertile land and water, while providing minimal local employment. Environmental impacts include deforestation in the Congo Basin and habitat loss in Ethiopia's Babile Elephant Sanctuary. The report concludes that agrofuels are often exported for international profit rather than providing local energy security, leaving African nations with depleted natural resources.

The report argues that the expansion of agrofuels in Africa, driven largely by European Union mandates, leads to 'neo-colonialism' where land is acquired by foreign companies and governments. This process results in the displacement of local farmers, increased food insecurity, and significant ecological damage, including deforestation and water scarcity. The document highlights the 'myth of marginal lands,' asserting that land claimed as unused is often vital for communal survival. It recommends halting land acquisitions, prioritizing food sovereignty, and ensuring the free, prior, and informed consent of local communities.

The report argues that the 2006–2008 global food crisis was a spike in a long-term trend of food insecurity in Southern Africa. It highlights the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) as the primary framework for coordinated regional responses, emphasizing long-term structural improvements over short-term reactionary measures. The analysis covers specific SADC and COMESA initiatives, the role of strategic grain reserves, and the impact of international trade subsidies on African agricultural productivity.

The report analyzes women's political participation in post-conflict Burundi and Nepal, finding that while affirmative action quotas significantly increased numerical representation in legislatures, entrenched patriarchal norms and party cultures continue to limit women's actual influence. It highlights the critical role of women's civil society organizations in advocating for rights and legal reforms, while noting that these organizations are often hampered by fragmented coordination and a heavy dependence on short-term international funding.

The report finds that significant greenhouse gas mitigation is possible in developing countries at low or negative costs, primarily through energy efficiency and forestry. While macroeconomic analyses for countries like Mexico and South Africa suggest that low-carbon transitions can be net-positive for GDP, the report warns that technical cost curves often omit significant implementation and transaction costs. It emphasizes that low-income countries (LICs) have different drivers, focusing on co-benefits like health and energy security rather than absolute emission cuts. The document also highlights a critical knowledge gap regarding 'climate resilient growth'—how to structure economies to reduce long-term vulnerability—and calls for better integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avoid trade-offs.

Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), delivered opening remarks on April 13, 2010, for the launch of the ISS's expanded Nairobi office. The speech details the ISS's evolution from a South African organization founded in 1991 to a pan-African think tank focused on "sustainable human security." Cilliers highlights the institute's regional presence in Pretoria, Cape Town, Addis Ababa, and Nairobi, and its collaborations with various African Union and regional bodies. The remarks also introduce new initiatives, including the African Conflict Prevention System (ACPS) and the proposed ISS Peace Academy in Addis Ababa, which aims to provide training on non-traditional security issues such as climate change.

The author contends that South Africa is experiencing a retrenchment of its global diplomatic ambition under President Zuma, characterized by a lack of policy clarity and a 'managerial lacuna' within the government. While acknowledging the institutional legacy of the African Union left by former President Mbeki, the text warns that continental crises—including climate change, energy insecurity, and water stress—require decisive leadership that is currently absent. The author calls for greater policy coherence between the Department of International Relations and Co-Operation (DIRCO) and other state organs and the private sector, suggesting that DIRCO must modernize its diplomatic skills to include environmental and economic literacy to drive domestic growth.

This report examines the mining sector in Tanzania, focusing on the economic contributions of the industry, the challenges of securing a 'social licence to operate' from local communities, and a case study of the Barrick Gold Corporation's operations within the country.

The report evaluates Tanzania's marine fisheries governance, highlighting a disconnect between progressive national policies and actual implementation. It identifies critical gaps in research capacity, institutional coordination between mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar, and the challenges of managing an open-access artisanal sector. A detailed case study of the Mafia Island Marine Park (MIMP) explores the tensions between conservation goals and the livelihoods of local communities, while questioning the degree of genuine community participation in the park's establishment.