BURUNDI Elections without competition and no peace without participation: where might it go from here?

The document examines the 2010 Burundian elections, which were marked by a widespread opposition boycott of the presidential race and a subsequent shift toward one-party dominance by the CNDD-FDD. It traces the roots of this crisis to constitutional disputes and the ruling party's perceived authoritarianism since 2005. The author warns that while a full-scale rebellion is currently remote, the lack of trust and exclusion of opposition parties could lead to gradual political deterioration or renewed violence. Recommendations include urgent international mediation by the East African Community and the UN, as well as long-term capacity building to transform former rebel movements into democratic political parties.

• The 2010 electoral process in Burundi shifted the state from a multiparty system toward one-party dominance, as the ruling CNDD-FDD won 81 of 106 National Assembly seats and 32 of 34 Senate seats.
• Opposition parties boycotted the presidential elections after alleging fraud in the communal elections, leading to a presidential result where 90% of the 76.9% who voted supported President Pierre Nkurunziza.
• The political crisis is rooted in the CNDD-FDD's history of disregarding constitutional provisions, such as altering cabinet portfolio allocations after the 2005 elections and using an unconstitutional court ruling in 2008 to replace 22 dissident MPs.
• The document identifies three potential future scenarios: a return to rebellion (most likely in Bujumbura and Bururi), a continuation of the status quo with increased human rights abuses, or a gradual deterioration leading to large-scale violence in 5 to 10 years.
• The author argues that political parties in Burundi still operate under the logic of rebel movements, viewing laws as instruments for confrontation rather than rules for non-violent competition.
• Short-term recommendations emphasize the need for a comprehensive international effort led by the East African Community (EAC), UN, and AU to address government intimidation, arrests of leaders, and the role of armed militias.

APA

Boshoff, H., & Ellermann, R. (2010). BURUNDI Elections without competition and no peace without participation: where might it go from here? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No19Jul2010.pdf

Chicago

Boshoff, Henri, and Ralph Ellermann. BURUNDI Elections without competition and no peace without participation: where might it go from here? Institute for Security Studies, 2010. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No19Jul2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Boshoff |first1=Henri |last2=Ellermann |first2=Ralph |title=BURUNDI Elections without competition and no peace without participation: where might it go from here? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2010 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No19Jul2010.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{boshoff2010burundi, author = {Boshoff, Henri and Ellermann, Ralph}, title = {{BURUNDI Elections without competition and no peace without participation: where might it go from here?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2010}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No19Jul2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }