Predicting Armed Conflict, 2011–2050

The research predicts a global decline in internal armed conflict, with the proportion of countries in conflict expected to drop from 15.1% in 2009 to 7.1% by 2050. This trend is driven primarily by projected improvements in education and infant mortality rates. While Western Asia and North Africa are expected to see significant reductions, conflicts are predicted to remain more concentrated in East, Central, and Southern Africa, as well as East and South Asia.

• The global proportion of countries experiencing internal armed conflict is predicted to decline from approximately 15.1% in 2009 to 7.1% by 2050.
• Major conflicts are also expected to decrease globally, falling from 3.5% of countries in 2009 to 1.6% in 2050.
• The reduction in conflict is projected to be most significant in the Western Asia and North Africa region, where incidence is expected to drop from over 27% in 2009 to 6.2% by 2050.
• Conflict is predicted to remain more persistent in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in East and Central Africa, and in East and South Asia.
• The primary drivers for the predicted global reduction in conflict are projected improvements in education levels and infant mortality rates.
• Population size is a significant predictor of conflict risk; larger populations are associated with higher risks, though the per-capita risk decreases as population increases.
• Recent conflict history is a strong predictor of future conflict, with a high risk of recurrence for countries that have recently experienced conflict.
• The model's out-of-sample validation for 2007–2009 showed a True Positive Rate of 0.79 and a False Positive Rate of 0.085 when using a probability threshold of p > 0.30.

APA

Hegre, H., Karlsen, J., Nygård, H. M., Urdal, H., & Strand, H. (2010). Predicting Armed Conflict, 2011–2050. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb13b4d8-4700-46ab-a990-c4df1bf83cdb/Predicting Armed Conflict 2010-2050.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Hegre, Håvard, Joakim Karlsen, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Henrik Urdal, and Håvard Strand. Predicting Armed Conflict, 2011–2050. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2010. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb13b4d8-4700-46ab-a990-c4df1bf83cdb/Predicting Armed Conflict 2010-2050.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{hegre2010predicting, author = {Hegre, Håvard and Karlsen, Joakim and Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv and Urdal, Henrik and Strand, Håvard}, title = {{Predicting Armed Conflict, 2011–2050}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2010}, month = dec, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fb13b4d8-4700-46ab-a990-c4df1bf83cdb/Predicting Armed Conflict 2010-2050.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }