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The 2024 Scorecard by Insure Our Future argues that the global insurance industry is in a 'vicious cycle,' where it continues to underwrite fossil fuel expansion while simultaneously withdrawing coverage from communities facing the resulting climate risks. Using climate attribution science, the report estimates that over one-third of weather-related insured losses between 2002 and 2022—approximately $600 billion—are attributable to human-caused climate change. The analysis reveals a stark mismatch in underwriting, with renewable energy premiums representing less than 30% of the size of the fossil fuel insurance market in 2023. For 15 of the 28 major property and casualty insurers analyzed, estimated climate-attributable losses exceeded the premiums they collected from fossil fuel clients. While Generali is noted as the first insurer to restrict oil and gas expansion across the entire value chain, the report concludes that voluntary corporate leadership has stalled, necessitating urgent regulatory intervention to mandate 1.5°C-aligned transition plans and higher capital requirements for fossil fuel exposure.

The report details a scenario exercise conducted by the Council on Strategic Risks to explore how biodiversity loss in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) can trigger security crises. Using a hypothetical 2034 'Cichlid Collapse' as a starting point, the study identifies social resilience and economic stability as the primary drivers of future security outcomes. It presents four potential futures ranging from a virtuous cycle of cooperation to a 'death spiral' of widespread conflict and ecological collapse. The report argues that biodiversity loss exacerbates resource competition, governance fragility, and the influence of violent extremist organizations, recommending a 'whole of system' approach integrating defense, diplomacy, and development to mitigate these risks.

The document argues that green bonds are an under-utilised tool that could help Africa meet its estimated USD 2.8 trillion climate finance need by 2030. While the global green bond market reached approximately USD 2.8 trillion in 2023, Africa's share is less than 1%, representing only USD 5.1 billion. The paper highlights successful issuances in South Africa, Nigeria, and Zambia, while identifying key barriers such as low liquidity, inadequate regulation, and high transaction costs. It calls for stronger public-private collaboration and international support at COP29 to create enabling environments for green bond proliferation in Africa.

The document outlines the structure of climate negotiations at COP29, listing various negotiating blocs such as the G77+China, EU, and AOSIS, while providing a glossary of terms and a calendar of thematic focus areas.

The ninth FOCAC Beijing Summit signaled a recalibration of China-Africa relations, moving toward a partnership defined by African agency and a focus on quality outcomes over quantity. Despite a period of declining lending since 2016, China committed USD 50.7 billion over three years, focusing on agricultural market access, mineral processing, and infrastructure. The summit highlighted Africa's desire for value addition and industrialization, as well as China's assertive push to promote its governance model and Global South leadership through the Global Development, Security, and Civilization Initiatives. This shift poses a competitive challenge to the EU and US, as African nations increasingly prioritize partnerships that offer tangible utility and respect for sovereignty.

The research paper analyzes the withdrawal of the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) from Cabo Delgado on 15 July 2024, arguing that the exit was driven by financial constraints and poor coordination rather than security improvements. It highlights that the insurgency, involving groups like Ahlu Sunnah Waljama’a and linked to ISIS, is fueled by a complex mix of religious extremism, poverty, unemployment, and state violence. The author contends that the withdrawal may have created a security void, as attacks have increased in 2024, and argues that military intervention alone is insufficient without addressing the root governance failures and economic inequalities in Mozambique.

The IEU report for May-August 2024 outlines the completion of evaluations on whistleblower protection, the GCF Investment Framework, and the energy sector portfolio. It details ongoing evaluations in Latin America and the Caribbean, health and food security, and Indigenous Peoples' approaches. The report also highlights the LORTA impact evaluation programme, evidence reviews on just transition and market-based approaches, and the progress of a Management Action Report on the Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme, where the Secretariat agreed to all 15 recommendations with varying levels of implementation progress.

The report finds that while climate finance in Africa grew by 48% to USD 43.7 billion in 2021/22, it remains severely insufficient, meeting only 23% of the annual needs required for NDC implementation. Public finance dominates the landscape, providing 82% of total flows, while private finance is heavily concentrated in energy systems and a small number of countries. The document highlights a critical 'trilemma' where climate-vulnerable countries are also debt-distressed and conflict-affected, further hindering their ability to attract investment. Key recommendations include scaling the use of guarantees, improving domestic capital market regulations, and enhancing the transparency and equity of voluntary carbon markets.

The methodology for the Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa 2024 describes the framework used to identify and categorize climate finance flows. It employs a taxonomy to distinguish between mitigation, adaptation, and dual-benefits finance across sectors such as energy, transport, and agriculture. The approach relies on a mix of public and proprietary data from sources like the OECD, BNEF, and the World Bank, while acknowledging significant gaps in domestic public expenditure tracking and private sector reporting. The document also details the classification of African countries by subregion and income status.

Climate finance in Africa grew by 48% between 2019/20 and 2021/22, reaching USD 43.7 billion, yet this remains only 23% of the annual funding required to meet 2030 NDC goals. Public finance dominates the landscape, providing 82% of total flows, while private finance is heavily concentrated in energy systems and a small number of countries. The report highlights a critical 'trilemma' where climate-vulnerable countries are often simultaneously debt-distressed and conflict-affected, further hindering their access to grants and affordable capital. Key recommendations include reforming domestic fiscal policies to remove fossil fuel subsidies, scaling the use of guarantees to de-risk private investment, and leveraging domestic institutional assets, such as pension funds, to reduce reliance on international debt.

Since 2023, Chinese firms have committed over US$100 billion in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) across at least 130 major cleantech transactions, spanning solar, wind, batteries, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). This 'going global' strategy is driven by domestic overcapacity, which has caused solar module prices to drop 60% and battery prices 50% year-on-year, and a need to circumvent trade barriers from the US and EU. The report highlights China's dominance in the global battery supply chain, where it holds over 80% of manufacturing capacity, and its expansion into markets like Morocco, Brazil, and Thailand. For Australia, the report notes that Chinese OFDI reached a multi-decade low of US$613 million in 2023, and argues that Australia should clarify its foreign investment rules to attract Chinese private capital for onshore value-adding in critical minerals and renewable energy infrastructure.

The report identifies soil acidity as a critical threat to food security and agricultural sustainability in East Africa, noting that over 60% of arable land in the region is degraded. It proposes a holistic approach centered on 'high-priority areas' (HPAs) where interventions can be scaled. The core strategy involves combining the application of agricultural lime with integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices, such as crop rotation and organic matter application. To achieve this, the report recommends scaling up soil testing via rapid kits, increasing farmer awareness through community-based extension agents, and developing a robust lime value chain by engaging private sector actors and optimizing last-mile distribution.

The document argues that while WTO rules provide significant policy space for LDCs to invest in agriculture through the 'Green Box' and 'Development Box', the primary barrier to increasing agricultural productivity is a lack of fiscal space rather than regulatory constraints. It suggests that new WTO rules should focus on reducing trade-distorting 'Amber Box' subsidies in developed and large developing countries to make LDC agriculture more competitive and attractive to private investors. Additionally, it recommends improving LDC market access by simplifying sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT) measures and expanding duty-free market access for key agricultural exports.

The document argues that while WTO rules provide significant policy space for LDCs to invest in agriculture through 'Green Box' and 'Development' categories, these countries are primarily constrained by fiscal limitations rather than trade rules. It suggests that food security in LDCs can be improved by reducing trade-distorting 'Amber Box' subsidies in developed nations for key products like cotton and rice, and by easing non-tariff barriers and import duties to stimulate LDC exports.

The report examines the intersection of Africa's blue economy and the Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) agenda, arguing that youth inclusion is essential for sustainable development and maritime security. It identifies climate change, a burgeoning youth population, and coastal migration as critical trends that can either destabilize coastal regions or be harnessed for growth. The document highlights the potential for the blue economy to generate up to US$405 billion by 2030 and provides examples of youth-led initiatives in aquaculture, conservation, and maritime security across various African nations. It concludes that a multidimensional approach, exemplified by the Great Blue Wall initiative, is necessary to build resilience and prevent the radicalization of marginalized youth by providing viable economic alternatives.

The document examines the role of migrant remittances as a resilient financial flow to Africa, highlighting their potential to bypass bureaucratic barriers in climate adaptation. It notes that while remittances reached US$100.1 billion in 2022, high transaction costs and low climate literacy hinder their effectiveness. The brief recommends lowering remittance costs, enhancing diaspora engagement through mechanisms like diaspora bonds, and improving climate literacy to empower local communities in building resilience.

The report highlights that climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices, particularly mulching and agroforestry, can significantly increase coffee yields and carbon sequestration in the East African Community (EAC). It notes a growing export market in the EU, which accounted for 60.1% of EAC coffee exports in 2021, but emphasizes that producers must adopt CSA to meet stringent EU sustainability, traceability, and phytosanitary requirements. Key barriers to CSA adoption include limited finance, land tenure issues, and inadequate extension services.

The report argues that the global push to triple renewable energy capacity must prioritize the quality of investments over quantity to avoid 'green extractivism'. It introduces three core criteria for public finance: driving a 100% renewable future by phasing out fossil fuels, ensuring democratic energy systems through grants and decentralization, and centering human rights and nature. The document criticizes multilateral development banks (MDBs) for continuing to fund fossil gas and relying on debt-creating loans rather than grants. Through case studies in India, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Indonesia, it contrasts the harms of large-scale, profit-driven projects with the benefits of community-led, small-scale renewable energy solutions.

The document analyzes the potential for African nations to move beyond the "pit to port" model of mineral extraction by building integrated battery mineral value chains. It highlights Africa's significant reserves of cobalt, manganese, graphite, and vanadium, and examines the macroeconomic shift from fossil fuel revenues to transition mineral revenues. The paper identifies Morocco as a leader in integrating automotive assembly with battery material production and discusses the potential for South Africa to act as a regional integrator. It concludes that while a continent-wide strategy is unlikely, sub-regional strategies and national policy instruments—such as strategic non-alignment and targeted industrial policies for e-mobility—can help African countries capture more value from their mineral endowments.

The EU CRMA and UK CMS aim to reduce dependence on China and secure supplies for the green transition, but their domestic focus may hinder African industrialization. While the EU targets 10% domestic mining and 40% processing by 2030, its international partnerships are criticized as extractivist. The brief highlights a misalignment in 'criticality' definitions, where African states prioritize regional industrialization and specific minerals like gold or coal, which may conflict with Western climate goals or sanctions. It concludes that without a shift toward supporting in-country processing and reducing certification costs for local firms, these strategies will fail to create mutually beneficial partnerships.