Search Climate Insights Directory

The research argues that the 'unitary actor assumption' in civil war studies overlooks the critical role of internal fragmentation. By analyzing self-determination movements from 1960 to 2005, the author finds that movements with more internal factions are significantly more likely to experience the onset of civil war and to remain in active conflict. This is attributed to the fact that multiple factions create uncertainty for states regarding the movement's preferences and capabilities, and make it difficult for any single faction to provide a credible commitment to a settlement.

The document examines the rise of the Catalan independence movement and the 2014 non-binding referendum, arguing that the event was a performance of 'simulated sovereignty' because it lacked legal recognition and resulted in judicial action by the Spanish state. It details the historical, economic, and political drivers of the movement, the results of the 2014 vote, and the subsequent political polarization leading toward a planned 2017 referendum.

The research examines 'pirogue migration' from West Africa to the Canary Islands, arguing that migrants are not irrational or suicidal but make decisions based on a specific socioeconomic and moral context. It identifies that the inability to achieve social adulthood—defined by financial independence and the ability to marry—creates a 'social moratorium' that makes the risks of the journey acceptable. The study finds that migrants actively filter risk information, often discrediting official awareness campaigns as biased. Furthermore, notions of masculinity, honor, and Sufi Islamic beliefs frame the journey as a courageous sacrifice or a matter of divine destiny, effectively neutralizing the fear of death.

The research employs a lobby group model and cross-country data from 104 countries to analyze the drivers of environmental policy stringency. The authors find that a higher number of environmental lobby groups generally leads to stricter policies. Crucially, the study identifies an interaction effect where political competition increases policy stringency primarily in countries with high levels of democratic participation, whereas participation alone has no effect in pure dictatorships. The results suggest that supporting local environmental NGOs in developing countries may be an effective channel for international donors to improve global environmental quality.

The research argues that ethnic terrorism declines when governments implement accommodation strategies, such as granting political power or regional autonomy to marginalized groups. Using a dataset linking the Global Terrorism Database to the Ethnic Power Relations project, the authors find that moves away from active discrimination significantly reduce the expected number of terrorist attacks. While transitions to democracy generally reduce ethnic terrorism, the effect is heterogeneous, with some Asian countries showing increased activity. The study also notes that while overall terrorism declines after accommodation, attacks by splinter groups may increase as hardliners reject settlements.

The document analyzes the role of the Assembly of Civil Society (ASC) in the Guatemalan peace process (1990–1996). While the ASC successfully influenced agreements on indigenous rights, it was marginalized during sensitive negotiations on the Truth Commission to avoid derailing the peace process. The author argues that this illustrates a conflict between process-related norms (inclusivity) and the paramount goal of stopping violence, suggesting that international support should shift toward empowering civil society during the implementation phase of peace agreements.

The authors use geo-coded data from 31 federal states to argue that both relatively rich and relatively poor regions are more prone to secessionist conflict than those with average wealth. The study also finds that the presence of politically excluded ethnic groups and the existence of regional autonomy further elevate the risk of violent secessionist conflict.

The author examines the 'quantitative-qualitative mismatch' in conflict studies, where large-N statistical analyses often find no link between income inequality and violence, while case studies suggest a strong connection. The paper posits that political violence is a group phenomenon and therefore driven by horizontal inequalities (HIs)—systematic disparities between ethnic, religious, or regional groups—rather than vertical inequalities (VI) between individuals. The author proposes a theoretical framework where HIs create both motives (grievances) and opportunities (resources and cohesion) for mobilization. The review concludes that while measuring HIs is challenging, evidence from survey-based data and disaggregated studies supports the link between HIs and various forms of political violence, including civil war and urban disorder.

The Strategies of Resistance Data Project (SRDP) provides a global dataset of 1,124 organizations involved in self-determination disputes between 1960 and 2005. Unlike previous datasets that focus on mass campaigns or violent actors, SRDP uses the organization as the unit of analysis to track tactical shifts. Findings indicate that nonviolent tactics are more common than violence in these movements, and organizations are more likely to switch from violence to nonviolence than vice versa.

The authors argue that national-level GDP per capita is an ambiguous proxy for the drivers of civil war, as conflict is typically a localized phenomenon. Using a global grid of 0.5-degree cells and G-Econ data for 1990, they test three hypotheses: that poorer areas are more prone to conflict (H1), that pockets of wealth in poor countries attract insurgency (H2), and that deviations from national income averages increase risk (H3). Preliminary results indicate that conflict onsets are more likely in poorer areas of a state and that the relationship between Gross Cell Product (GCP) per capita and conflict risk follows an inverted U-shape, peaking at approximately $1,300 per capita.

The WARICC codebook details the construction of a dataset designed to analyze the frequency and intensity of domestic water-related conflict and cooperation. Using BBC Monitoring as its primary source, the project employs an 11-point Water-Events Scale (WES) to categorize events from substantial national improvements (+5) to overt physical violence or national deterioration (-5). The methodology addresses potential data biases related to urban areas, regime types, and extreme events, while providing a comprehensive system of country and actor codes for standardized reporting.

The report outlines 17 specific measures to protect the integrity of environmental information in France. These include institutionalizing the monitoring of media coverage via the Observatoire des Médias sur l’Ecologie, protecting environmental spokespeople from harassment, and integrating climate disinformation as a systemic risk under the EU's Digital Services Act. It advocates for stronger editorial safeguards against shareholder conflicts of interest, mandatory 'climate contracts' to fight greenwashing, and specialized training for public officials, journalists, and students. Internationally, it urges France to lead the Global Initiative for Climate Information Integrity (GI3C) and coordinate with European regulators via the EU Media Board.

The policy brief identifies a gap between the climate commitments of institutional investors and their actual impact on corporate behavior, citing limited transparency and high barriers to shareholder action. It proposes four primary reforms to the Shareholder Rights Directive (SRD) II: introducing a mandatory 'Say on Climate' vote every three years, ensuring legal security for submitting environmental resolutions, increasing transparency requirements for asset owners, managers, and proxy advisors, and lowering the shareholding threshold for submitting resolutions to a maximum of 2% (and 0.2% for large companies).

The document outlines the environmental and economic dangers of expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. It highlights that the LNG process is energy-intensive and prone to methane leaks, with US-sourced LNG potentially having a carbon footprint 28% higher than coal. Financially, the report warns of severe overcapacity in Europe, where import capacity may reach 400 billion m3 by 2030 despite a projected demand of only 150-190 billion m3, leading to a high risk of stranded assets in countries such as France, Germany, and Italy. It concludes that conversion to hydrogen or biomethane is largely technically and economically unfeasible, urging financial actors to cease all support for gas expansion.

The document outlines the high energy consumption and methane leakage associated with the LNG value chain, highlighting that US-produced LNG can have a carbon footprint 28% higher than coal. It warns of significant financial risks, including the potential for LNG infrastructure to become stranded assets due to overcapacity, particularly in Europe where utilization rates are forecast to drop to 36% by 2030.

This document is a rebuttal by Amory B. Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) to an article and subsequent response by Charles C. Mann in The Atlantic. Lovins argues that Mann ignores the role of efficiency and technological innovation in reducing oil demand and misrepresents the reliability and economic viability of renewable energy, specifically in Germany.

The report argues that utilities often undervalue renewable resources by failing to account for their contribution to overall system reliability and the benefits of geographic diversification. It proposes using financial portfolio theory to minimize variability through dispersed siting and suggests that the costs of integrating intermittent renewables are relatively low compared to the risks of fossil fuel price volatility. The authors conclude that failure to apply these valuation techniques leads to unnecessary investment in conventional generation capacity.

The report examines the role of decentralised renewable energy (DRE) in overcoming barriers to agricultural productivity, such as lack of energy access and finance. It presents 15 case studies across Africa, Asia, and South America, showcasing technologies like solar water pumps, cooling systems, and biomass steam engines. Key findings emphasize the need for holistic, customer-centric designs, innovative financing (including grants, equity, and debt), and the integration of capacity building to ensure long-term sustainability and job creation in rural communities.

This report by the SELCO Foundation examines the technical requirements and solar power system designs for mechanical ventilators in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a specific focus on addressing ventilator shortages and power instability in India.

The report argues that environmental improvements can enhance competitiveness and proposes a strategy for a European eco-efficient economy based on resource efficiency, new technology markets, and stable global carbon pricing. It emphasizes the need for integrated governance, support for SMEs, and international cooperation to prevent carbon leakage and drive global climate action.