Making Waves at The Atlantic: A Rebuttal to The Atlantic Magazine’s Contention That “We’re Going to Keep Burning Oil—and Lots of It”

This document is a rebuttal by Amory B. Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) to an article and subsequent response by Charles C. Mann in The Atlantic. Lovins argues that Mann ignores the role of efficiency and technological innovation in reducing oil demand and misrepresents the reliability and economic viability of renewable energy, specifically in Germany.

• Lovins asserts that the economics of transitioning to oil-free automobiles in the U.S. are highly favorable, with benefits estimated at $3.8 trillion, or up to $12 trillion if economic and military externalities are included. The analysis suggests a 14-percent internal rate of return and an average cost of approximately $25/barrel equivalent to remove all mobility from oil, assuming externalities are zero.
• The document argues that 'peak oil' is increasingly likely to be driven by a decline in demand rather than a shortage of supply, as efficiency outcompetes oil. Lovins notes that oil intensity has dropped in nearly all industrialized nations, and suggests that developing countries like China and India may 'leapfrog' inefficient 20th-century vehicle technology in favor of oil-free models.
• Lovins disputes claims that Germany's transition to renewables has compromised grid reliability or led to widespread blackouts. He states that German power remains more reliable than U.S. power and that the president of Germany's network agency has confirmed renewables are not compromising reliability. He attributes high residential electricity prices in Germany to taxes and industry exemptions rather than the cost of renewables.
• The author challenges the claim that Germany is switching to coal to replace nuclear power or because it is cheaper than renewables. He states that Germany has not started any new coal plants since the Fukushima disaster and will see a net loss in coal capacity, noting that existing coal plants are often losing money.
• Lovins argues that 100% renewable power can be reliably provided without expensive bulk battery storage. He cites an analysis from eastern Australia's grid operator and RMI's own simulations for the Texas ERCOT power pool to support the claim that grid flexibility can be achieved through demand-side management, flexible generation, and other techniques.
• The document highlights a lack of connection between electricity generation and oil use in the U.S., stating that less than one percent of U.S. oil is used for electricity and less than one percent of U.S. electricity is generated from oil.

APA

Lovins, A. B. (n.d.). Making Waves at The Atlantic: A Rebuttal to The Atlantic Magazine’s Contention That “We’re Going to Keep Burning Oil—and Lots of It”. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2013-08_AtlanticMannRebuttal.pdf

Chicago

Lovins, Amory B. Making Waves at The Atlantic: A Rebuttal to The Atlantic Magazine’s Contention That “We’re Going to Keep Burning Oil—and Lots of It”. RMI, n.d. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2013-08_AtlanticMannRebuttal.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lovins |first1=Amory B. |title=Making Waves at The Atlantic: A Rebuttal to The Atlantic Magazine’s Contention That “We’re Going to Keep Burning Oil—and Lots of It” |publisher=RMI |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2013-08_AtlanticMannRebuttal.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lovinsndmaking, author = {Lovins, Amory B.}, title = {{Making Waves at The Atlantic: A Rebuttal to The Atlantic Magazine’s Contention That “We’re Going to Keep Burning Oil—and Lots of It”}}, institution = {RMI}, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_2013-08_AtlanticMannRebuttal.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }