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Analysis of 242 U.S. cities shows that fall temperatures have increased by an average of 2.5°F since 1970, with the most intense warming occurring in the Southwest. This trend is characterized by a higher frequency of above-normal temperature days, which prolongs risks related to heat-related illness, wildfires, and allergies, while also affecting agricultural growing seasons and energy demand for cooling.

Climate Central reports that 89% of 242 analyzed U.S. locations have seen an increase in annual 'warning days' (heat index 80°F to 94°F) since 1979, with the most significant rises in the Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest. Between 1992 and 2022, 986 U.S. workers died from heat exposure, and from 1980 to 2016, an average of 421 million work hours were lost annually, costing $14 billion. The document highlights a lack of comprehensive federal heat standards, noting that only five states have such protections, while some states like Florida and Texas prohibit local municipalities from enacting their own heat safety laws.

Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme precipitation across the U.S., with the Northeast and Midwest seeing the largest increases since 1958. Under 2°C of global warming, 85% of U.S. counties are projected to experience a 10% or higher increase in precipitation on the heaviest 1% of days. This intensification contributes to flash flooding and landslides, disproportionately affecting racial minorities and those in mobile homes, particularly in the South and rural areas. Between 1988 and 2021, warming-induced rainfall intensification caused an estimated $84 billion in inland flood damages.

Between 2000 and 2023, 80% of major U.S. power outages were caused by weather, with a significant increase in frequency during the last decade. Severe weather, winter storms, and tropical cyclones are the primary drivers, with Texas and the Southeast region among the most affected. The document highlights the vulnerability of aging infrastructure and the disproportionate impact on marginalized and medically vulnerable populations, while suggesting grid hardening, microgrids, and emissions reductions as paths toward resilience.

Since 1970, spring temperatures in the contiguous U.S. have increased by an average of 2°F, with the most significant warming occurring in the Southwest. Analysis of 239 locations shows that 96% of cities experienced warming, with some locations in Nevada, Texas, and Arizona exceeding 6°F. This trend is characterized by an increase in warmer-than-normal spring days, which contributes to earlier snowmelt, prolonged allergy seasons, and extended agricultural growing seasons.

Analysis of 240 U.S. weather stations shows that 86% of locations have experienced an increase in unusually warm winter days since 1970, with the most significant rises occurring in the Upper Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast. Winter is the fastest-warming season for 74% of the analyzed locations. These trends are accompanied by a decrease in freezing nights, shorter cold snaps, and a rise in the temperature of the coldest day of the year. The document notes that winter warming affects agriculture, water supplies, public health via allergy and mosquito seasons, and winter sports.

The U.S. experienced a record 28 billion-dollar disasters in 2023, causing over $93 billion in damages. Since 1980, tropical cyclones have been the costliest events, while severe storms are the most frequent. The document details how warming temperatures intensify specific hazards—such as increasing rainfall intensity and fueling stronger tropical cyclones—and notes that the average time between such disasters has shrunk from 82 days in the 1980s to 12 days in 2023.

The document reveals that only 15% of Brazilian family farmers access credit, with resources heavily concentrated in the South region, larger family properties, and grain production. It argues that the current eligibility criteria, particularly the outdated 'fiscal module' system, create distortions that exclude the most vulnerable producers. The brief recommends revising these criteria and integrating sustainability requirements to support a transition to low-carbon agriculture.

Using the EPA's AVERT tool and 2021 data, the analysis finds that ignoring additionality, regionality, line loss accounting, or hourly time-matching can lead to hydrogen production emissions that exceed the threshold for the top $3/kg 45V tax credit. Specifically, forgoing additionality could result in emissions 22 to 40 kgCO2/kgH2, which is more than twice the emissions of steam methane reformation.

The document reports a significant increase in billion-dollar severe storms in the U.S., with a shift in tornado activity toward the Southeast and Mid-South. It highlights the vulnerability of mobile home residents and projects a nationwide increase in supercell frequency and a shift toward more winter and early spring storms by the end of the century.

The report examines the gap between soybean production distribution and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change—manifesting as severe droughts, hail, and frost—has led to unprecedented insurance claim payments. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers found that while insurance data is insufficient to predict losses in the North and Northeast regions, agricultural yield data from PAM/IBGE can effectively identify climate variables (precipitation, fire risk, and wind) that correlate with losses. The authors recommend expanding insurance supply to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA, utilizing production history for pricing in underserved areas, and strengthening the reinsurance market and public-private funds to ensure insurer liquidity.

The document examines the gap between soybean production and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change exacerbates risks through extreme events. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers demonstrate that while insurance data is scarce in regions like the North and Northeast, agricultural yield data can effectively identify climate variables—primarily precipitation, fire risk, and wind—that drive production losses. The brief argues for expanding insurance to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA and improving the solvency of insurers through reinsurance and public-private funds to support a low-carbon agricultural transition.

Between 2000 and 2021, the U.S. experienced 1,542 major weather-related power outages, with 83% of all reported major outages attributed to weather. The average annual number of these events increased by approximately 78% in the 2011-2021 decade compared to 2000-2010. Severe weather, winter weather, and tropical cyclones were the primary drivers, with the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast regions most affected. To address these vulnerabilities, the document suggests solutions such as microgrids, smart grid technologies, grid hardening, and bidirectional charging for electric vehicles.

The report compares the Agricultural Activity Guarantee Program (PROAGRO) and the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program (PSR) in Brazil. It finds that PROAGRO's design, where the government bears the risk while financial institutions operate the program, leads to severe information asymmetries, moral hazard, and higher claim rates. In contrast, the PSR, where insurers bear the risk, provides stronger incentives for monitoring and selection, resulting in lower claim rates and a more sustainable financial balance. The authors recommend migrating resources from PROAGRO to the PSR, improving the training of claims adjusters, and incorporating parametric insurance and sustainable management criteria into policy design.

The report compares the Proagro and PSR rural insurance programs in Brazil, finding that Proagro's design—where the government assumes risk while financial institutions operate the program—creates significant information asymmetries and moral hazard. This leads to higher claim rates and increasing costs for the National Treasury. In contrast, the PSR, where private insurers bear the risk, shows greater efficiency and growth, though it struggles to reach small-scale producers. The authors recommend migrating resources toward the PSR, improving claim verification through technology and training, and integrating sustainable farming criteria into risk zoning to enhance the sustainability of Brazilian agriculture.

Analysis of 246 U.S. locations shows that 74% have experienced an annual increase in extremely hot days since 1970, with Austin, TX seeing the largest increase. The document highlights that extreme heat risks are higher in traditionally cooler regions due to lack of acclimatization and infrastructure, and that vulnerable populations including children, seniors, and low-income households are disproportionately affected.

The report examines BNDES's impact on Brazilian agricultural investment credit, noting that disbursements nearly quadrupled in real terms between 1995 and 2020. The bank's credit is heavily concentrated in crop activities, particularly soy, and the acquisition of harvesters and tractors. Geographically, the Center-West region has become the primary recipient of these funds, reflecting the expansion of the agricultural frontier. Unlike general rural credit in Brazil, which is dominated by public banks, BNDES equipment credit is primarily channeled through private commercial banks and manufacturer-owned banks.

The document argues that the US power sector faces a critical investment window between 2020 and 2030, with an estimated 420 GW of resource procurement needed. It advocates for a shift toward 'all-source', 'objective-aligned', and 'least-regrets' procurement practices to move away from legacy processes that reflect past conditions rather than emerging trends. The guide provides specific actionable recommendations for legislators, state commissions, and utilities to increase transparency, engage stakeholders, and better integrate distributed energy resources (DERs) into the planning and procurement cycle.

The report analyzes Brazil's rural credit system, highlighting its complexity and fragmentation. It provides empirical evidence that rural credit, particularly when directed at small farmers, increases land and labor productivity and reduces deforestation by promoting the conversion of degraded pastures into cropland. The document argues for simplifying the credit system, increasing private sector participation, and strengthening the link between credit access and compliance with the Forest Code to ensure sustainable agricultural growth.

Climate change is intensifying wildfires in the United States by raising temperatures and drying out forests, while a century of fire suppression has increased fuel loads. These fires cause significant loss of life, property destruction, and high federal costs, while simultaneously releasing greenhouse gases that further accelerate global warming.