Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme precipitation across the U.S., with the Northeast and Midwest seeing the largest increases since 1958. Under 2°C of global warming, 85% of U.S. counties are projected to experience a 10% or higher increase in precipitation on the heaviest 1% of days. This intensification contributes to flash flooding and landslides, disproportionately affecting racial minorities and those in mobile homes, particularly in the South and rural areas. Between 1988 and 2021, warming-induced rainfall intensification caused an estimated $84 billion in inland flood damages.

• Between 1958 and 2021, the most extreme precipitation days intensified in every major U.S. region, with the highest increases occurring in the Northeast (60%) and the Midwest (45%). Other regional increases included the Southeast (37%), the Northern Rockies and Plains (24%), and the South (21%).
• Under a scenario of 2°C (3.6°F) of global warming, 85% of the 3,111 U.S. counties (2,645 counties) are likely to see a 10% or higher increase in precipitation on the heaviest 1% of days, with an average increase of 17% across all counties.
• Specific high-risk areas for extreme precipitation intensification at 2°C of warming include Alaska (43%) and Hawaii (30%), as well as Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Maine, North Carolina, and Kentucky, where increases of at least 30% are expected.
• Climate warming increases the air's capacity to hold moisture—approximately 4% more moisture for every 1°F of warming—which leads to heavier downpours and flash floods. In the U.S., hourly rainfall intensity increased by an average of 13% across 150 analyzed locations since 1970.
• Warming-induced rainfall intensification has caused significant economic and social damage. From 1988 to 2021, 37% of the $230 billion in U.S. inland flood damages—amounting to $84 billion—is attributed to precipitation changes caused by climate warming.
• Flood risks are inequitably distributed; racial minorities and residents of mobile homes are disproportionately exposed, particularly in rural areas and the South. Additionally, a projected 26% increase in overall U.S. flood risk by 2050 may disproportionately impact Black communities along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

APA

Climate Central (2024). Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/extreme-precipitation-in-a-warming-climate

Chicago

Climate Central. Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate. 2024. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/extreme-precipitation-in-a-warming-climate.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate |date=1 May 2024 |url=https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/extreme-precipitation-in-a-warming-climate |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentral2024extreme, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/extreme-precipitation-in-a-warming-climate}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }