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Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 46
This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) reports on a suspected coup attempt in Sudan in November 2012, detailing the arrests of high-ranking officials and analyzing the internal political and economic pressures facing President Omar al-Bashir's government.
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Document type: Briefing
Lake Malawi dispute: no agreement on mediation process
A briefing on the territorial dispute between Malawi and Tanzania over Lake Malawi, focusing on the disagreement regarding the mediation process and the structural limitations of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in resolving such conflicts.
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Document type: Briefing
Peace and Security Council Report
The October 2012 Peace and Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides detailed country analyses of Somalia, South Sudan, and Côte d’Ivoire, focusing on political transitions, security vulnerabilities, and the role of regional and international bodies in stabilizing these nations.
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Document type: Report
Rapport sur le Conseil de paix et de sécurité
This October 2012 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analysis and country-specific assessments for Somalia, South Sudan, and Côte d'Ivoire, focusing on political transitions, security architecture, and regional stability within the framework of the African Union's Peace and Security Council (PSC).
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Document type: Report
A STITCH IN TIME WOULD HAVE SAVED NINE
This policy brief examines the delays in operationalising the African Standby Force (ASF), an African Union (AU) mechanism designed for rapid response to violent armed conflicts in Africa. Despite multiple roadmaps and timelines (2005, 2008, 2010), the force remained non-operational as of 2012, with a revised target of 2015. The author identifies systemic failures in political command, logistical infrastructure, and institutional capacity, arguing that the AU has relied too heavily on ad hoc missions rather than using actual deployments to refine the ASF architecture.
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Document type: Policy brief
Peace and Security Council Report
The September 2012 Peace and Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides analysis on early warning issues in Africa, focusing on the electoral risks in Kenya, the democratic transition in Egypt, and a retrospective of the 19th African Union (AU) Summit.
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Document type: Report
Timber Trade in Africa’s Great Lakes: The Road from Beni, DRC to Kampala, Uganda
This report examines the drivers and flows of tropical timber exports from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) through Uganda to regional markets, highlighting the prevalence of unregulated trade and the disparity in benefits among actors within the supply chain.
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Document type: Report
The Timber Trade in Africa’s Great Lakes: Implications for Uganda and the Region
This policy briefing examines the tropical timber trade from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to and through Uganda into the wider East African region. It highlights the challenges of regulating a trade characterized by informal operators and middlemen, and provides recommendations for improving regional coordination, domestic regulation in Uganda, and the use of existing platforms like the ICGLR and the Albertine Rift Strategic Planning Process to promote sustainable development.
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Document type: Policy brief
Eastern DRC and the protests in Sudan
This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes two distinct security and political crises: the escalating violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) involving the M23 rebel group and Rwandan influence, and the economic instability and civil unrest in Sudan under President Omar al-Bashir.
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Document type: Briefing
Coming into its own: An analysis of South Africa’s voting patterns and the achievement of its foreign policy goals in the UNSC
This research paper analyzes South Africa's voting patterns and foreign policy achievements during its first (2007-2008) and second (2011-2012) terms as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC). The author finds that South Africa has become more confident, increasing its co-sponsorship of resolutions and successfully promoting its 'African Agenda,' particularly regarding cooperation between the UNSC and the African Union (AU).
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Document type: Research paper
Between the CPA and Southern Independence: China’s Post-Conflict Engagement in Sudan
This research paper by Daniel Large for the South African Institute of International Affairs examines China's engagement in Sudan between the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the independence of South Sudan in July 2011. It analyzes how Beijing transitioned from a predominantly bilateral, oil-driven relationship with Khartoum to a more complex, multifaceted engagement that included diplomatic and development efforts in Southern Sudan and peacekeeping in Darfur.
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Document type: Research paper
SEMINAR REPORT The Role of Resources in Africa’s future: Towards a vision for the governance of Africa’s natural resources
This seminar report, compiled by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) and the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE), documents a March 2012 meeting in Kampala, Uganda. The event brought together 44 delegates to discuss the governance of Africa's natural resources, focusing on oil, mining, and renewable resources (land, forestry, and fisheries). The report highlights the tension between the potential for wealth generation and the risks of corruption, conflict, and 'elite capture', while emphasizing the need for transparency, local community inclusion, and African-led research and policy solutions.
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Document type: Report
PSC Report
This December 2011 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides security analyses and early warning assessments for the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC). It focuses on the fragile post-election landscape in Liberia, escalating border conflicts and humanitarian crises between Sudan and South Sudan, the expanding threat of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) across the Sahel, and political instability in Burundi. Additionally, it examines the partnership and occasional divergences between the PSC and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
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Document type: Report
Working for Development in Southern Africa: Bridging the Gap Between Government and Business
This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) examines the relationship between the South African government and the private sector regarding economic activity and development in Southern Africa. It argues that while both parties share an interest in regional stability and growth, their efforts are hindered by a domestic legacy of mistrust and ideological differences. The author explores the role of 'economic diplomacy' and the proposal for a business code of conduct to align corporate behavior with national developmental goals.
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Document type: Research paper
South Africa’s Development Partnership Agency: A Burden or Blessing?
This research paper examines the establishment of the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA), which is intended to replace the African Renaissance Fund (ARF) and coordinate South Africa's development assistance and foreign policy impact across the African continent.
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Document type: Research paper
PSC Report
The August 2011 PSC Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides an analysis of early warning issues for the African Union Peace and Security Council, focusing heavily on the security challenges facing the newly independent Republic of South Sudan and the ongoing civil war in Libya. It also reviews outcomes from the 17th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly in Malabo and discusses the development of a common African position on the UN Arms Trade Treaty.
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Document type: Report
Africa in the 21st Century: the view from London
In a statement delivered on 20 June 2011, Dame Nicola Brewer, the British High Commissioner to South Africa, outlines the evolving relationship between the United Kingdom and South Africa. She emphasizes a shift in the UK's perception of Africa from a 'problem' to a 'partner,' highlighting shared democratic values, economic opportunities, and a commitment to mutual growth and regional integration.
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Document type: Statement
PSC Report
The June 2011 PSC Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analysis on security crises in South Sudan, Uganda, and Madagascar, alongside a retrospective on African border disputes and an examination of drug trafficking in West Africa.
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Document type: Report
The Politics of Resources, Resistance and Peripheries in Sudan
This research paper by Petrus de Kock for the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) examines the historical and contemporary drivers of conflict in Sudan, focusing on the relationship between the central state in Khartoum and its marginalised peripheries. Written in June 2011, the document analyzes how the struggle for both high-level resources (oil) and low-level subsistence resources (land and water) has shaped the country's political landscape, leading to two civil wars and the eventual independence of Southern Sudan in July 2011.
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Document type: Research paper
Governance of Oil Resources and the Referendum in Southern Sudan
This policy briefing examines how the governance of oil resources contributed to the secession of Southern Sudan. It argues that the failure of the National Congress Party (NCP) to ensure fair revenue sharing, transparency, and local community development convinced Southern Sudanese that they would benefit more from an independent state than from a united Sudan.
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Document type: Policy brief