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This February 2011 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analysis and country updates for the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC). It focuses on the political instability in Tunisia following the ousting of President Ben Ali, the security and minority rights challenges surrounding the South Sudan referendum, the electoral stalemate and potential for civil war in Côte d’Ivoire, and the long-standing territorial dispute over Western Sahara. Additionally, it discusses the AU's focus on 'shared values' as a foundation for continental integration.

This research paper analyzes the geopolitical and economic complexities surrounding the potential independence of Southern Sudan following its 2011 referendum. It highlights the critical interdependence between Juba and Khartoum, particularly regarding oil infrastructure, border demarcation, and regional stability in the Nile Basin.

This report summarizes a roundtable seminar hosted by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) on January 13, 2011, regarding the political implications of the Southern Sudan referendum. The discussion focused on the interdependence of Northern and Southern Sudan, specifically concerning oil revenues, water resources in the Nile basin, and the challenges of state-building and border security.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the security challenges and potential scenarios surrounding the January 9, 2011, referendum on South Sudan's right to secede from Sudan. It examines the political dynamics between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM), the risks of a return to war, and the roles of regional and international actors in maintaining stability during the transition.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies discusses the status of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction (BTWC) in Africa during the Seventh Review Conference in December 2011. It advocates for the universalisation of the treaty across the continent, the strengthening of the BTWC's Implementation Support Unit (ISU), and the alignment of the convention with Africa's specific developmental and public health needs.

This conference report, compiled by the Institute for Security Studies, examines the political dynamics and institutional structures that influence decision-making within the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), as well as their interactions with the European Union (EU).

This workshop report, compiled by Eric Scheye for the Institute for Security Studies, details discussions held in March 2011 regarding the promotion of the rule of law (RoL) in Africa. The document critiques traditional donor-led 'institutional capacity development' models, arguing that RoL is primarily a political rather than technical challenge. It advocates for a shift toward service-delivery and problem-solving approaches that recognize legal pluralism, the role of non-state justice providers, and the specific needs of marginalized groups, particularly women.

This report summarizes an expert roundtable held on September 30, 2010, regarding the potential secession of Southern Sudan following its scheduled January 2011 self-determination referendum. It examines the unresolved issues between Northern and Southern Sudan, the internal challenges facing a potential new state, and the resulting security and economic implications for the Horn and central Africa regions.

This briefing analyzes the upcoming January 9, 2011, referendum in Sudan and the separate plebiscite in the Abyei region to determine whether South Sudan will secede. It examines the tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the challenges of state viability for a potential new South Sudanese state, and the role of international mediators in preventing a return to armed conflict.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines the cycle of disarmament campaigns in Jonglei state, South Sudan, specifically comparing the failed 2006 effort with the 2009-2010 campaign. The author argues that the government's reliance on disarmament as the sole response to endemic violence ignores structural failures in local governance, the lack of civilian protection by the SPLA, and a cattle-based economy that incentivizes raiding and child abduction.

This briefing examines the risks and logistical challenges surrounding Sudan's first multi-party elections since 1986, scheduled for 11 April 2010. The authors argue that the elections, mandated by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), are occurring too late in the interim period to effectively influence the January 2011 self-determination referendum for Southern Sudan. The document highlights significant political risks, including the boycott of the presidential race by Yassir Arman, disputes over the 2008 population census, restrictive security laws, and the extreme complexity of the voting process for a largely illiterate population.

The National Chairman's Annual Statement 2010 from the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) reviews the global and regional geopolitical landscape following the global financial crisis. It highlights South Africa's role in the G20 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit, discusses political instability in Africa—specifically in Zimbabwe, Niger, Nigeria, DRC, and Sudan—and outlines the Zuma administration's foreign policy priorities, including strengthened ties with Angola, Brazil, and the UK.

This seminar report analyzes the African Union High-Level Panel on Darfur's recommendations for peace and justice. It highlights the need for a combination of hybrid courts, truth commissions, and national legal reforms in Sudan, while noting significant political hurdles including the 2010 elections and the 2011 Southern Sudan referendum. The report also critiques the AUPD's silence on specific ICC indictments and the AU's decision not to surrender President al-Bashir.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies provides an update on the stalled Juba peace talks between the Government of Uganda (GOU) and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). It analyzes the regionalization of the conflict across Uganda, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the Central African Republic (CAR), while evaluating the tension between military solutions and the pursuit of a final peace agreement hampered by International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments and internal LRA feuding.

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the fragile implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan as of May 2007. It details significant failures in security arrangements, the lack of a functioning population census, and the political tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of planned national elections.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers of the Institute for Security Studies examines the relationship between the United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU) regarding peace and security. It argues against a 'layered response'—where the AU assumes primary responsibility for peacekeeping to reduce UN costs—and instead advocates for an 'interlocking system' of shared logistics, staffing, and strategic management to ensure sustainable conflict prevention and reconstruction in Africa.

The National Chairman's Annual Statement 2007 from the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) discusses South Africa's role as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and the challenges of balancing its aspirational, human-rights-based foreign policy with the realities of global realpolitik.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the precarious security situation in southern Sudan following the May 2004 IGAD framework agreement. It argues that widespread breaches of existing security agreements, a profound lack of trust between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), and the failure of monitoring mechanisms threaten the long-term viability of the peace process.

This report analyses the South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF), a conglomerate of government-supported militias, and argues that its exclusion from the IGAD-sponsored peace process between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) threatens the stability of southern Sudan.

This research paper analyzes the IGAD Peace Initiative in Sudan as it approached a signed agreement between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) in 2004. The author argues that while the first stage of the process successfully identified core conflict issues, the subsequent transitional period requires a shift from elite-driven negotiations to a transparent, inclusive, and democratic process to avoid implosion. The paper emphasizes that internal stability in Sudan is inextricably linked to the rehabilitation of its contentious bilateral relations with neighboring states in the Horn of Africa.