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The research paper examines 'Africa+1' summits—high-level meetings between African nations and a single external power—as a strategic arena for geopolitical influence. It traces the evolution from early French-led summits to a 'second generation' involving Asian powers like Japan, China, India, and Turkey, and more recent engagement from Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Italy. The author argues that Africa's demographic growth and critical mineral wealth have increased its strategic value, allowing African states to exercise greater agency by leveraging rivalries between global powers. However, the document critiques the summit format as often being performative and asymmetric, noting a gap between multi-billion-dollar pledges and tangible results. It highlights proposals for reform, such as unified AU representation, to move toward more equitable partnerships.

South Africa holds approximately 80% of global Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), which are essential catalysts for PEM electrolysers and fuel cells used in green hydrogen production. While this provides a strategic opportunity for re-industrialisation and decarbonisation, the transition faces severe constraints, including an outdated electricity grid, water scarcity in high-resource areas, and a significant skills gap. The shift also threatens the coal and internal combustion engine automotive sectors, risking large-scale job losses in regions like Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape. Geopolitically, South Africa must navigate competition between China and Western powers, particularly as the US has withdrawn support for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). The paper argues that for the transition to be 'just', the government must integrate mineral beneficiation with social safeguards, regional SADC integration, and comprehensive workforce reskilling.

The author contends that democracy and autocracy are mutually obstructive and that the EU must leverage financial tools like the Global Gateway and the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to build an alliance of democracies, particularly in the Global South, to prevent a global shift toward authoritarian dominance.

The report analyzes the financial needs and current tools supporting the low-carbon transition of China's coal power sector, which is estimated to require over ten trillion yuan in funding. It evaluates existing domestic transition finance catalogs and debt instruments, compares them with international standards—such as those in Singapore and ASEAN—and examines multilateral mechanisms like JETP and ETM. The document concludes with six action recommendations to improve standard systems, optimize financing mechanisms, and leverage the leadership of central enterprises to ensure a credible and just transition.

The document outlines a three-goal approach for climate finance vehicles to manage climate risk and build resilience. Goal 1 focuses on a five-step process to identify and manage physical climate hazards to align with international standards like the ISSB and Paris Agreement. Goal 2 guides the creation of an evidence-backed adaptation thesis to secure investor commitments, particularly for those targeting Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) funding. Goal 3 provides a methodology for designing impact measurement frameworks, including theories of change and indicator tables, to track resilience outcomes and avoid maladaptation.

The report assesses the state of asset management and pension systems across Africa, highlighting a general trend of conservative investment strategies, low retail participation, and uneven regulatory oversight. It identifies a strong prevalence of defined benefit and pay-as-you-go pension schemes, particularly in francophone and lusophone countries, while anglophone nations lean toward funded defined contribution models. Key challenges include low coverage for informal workers and women, limited ESG integration, and a heavy reliance on government securities. The document recommends shifting toward risk-based supervision, expanding micro-pension schemes, and developing national ESG taxonomies to deepen capital markets.

The assessment finds that nature-based solutions (NbS) in Kigali—including afforestation, reforestation, agroforestry, and urban tree planting—are economically viable, with a discounted benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of 2.09 and cumulative net benefits of RWF 17,039 million from 2025 to 2050. The primary economic driver is the avoidance of flood damage to infrastructure, valued at RWF 17,311 million, alongside significant intangible benefits from reduced water pollution and carbon sequestration. Sensitivity analyses indicate that higher valuations for carbon and water pollution further increase the project's economic viability, with BCRs reaching up to 2.94.

The document identifies systemic communication failures across 12 South African municipalities, characterized by top-down messaging, internal silos, and a decline in traditional outreach. It recommends professionalizing communication units, institutionalizing two-way engagement, and integrating knowledge management to move from reactive to citizen-centered systems.

The document identifies structural and operational failures in South Africa's Integrated Development Planning (IDP) process, noting that community participation is often treated as a 'tick-box' exercise. Based on action research across 12 municipalities, it highlights issues such as poor meeting organization, declining youth attendance, and a lack of transparency. The brief recommends reframing the IDP as a developmental tool, improving institutional coordination, and implementing a Community Participation Index to move toward a more people-centered, bottom-up planning approach.

The document identifies systemic failures in South Africa's ward committee system, including poor resourcing, political interference, and a lack of institutional memory. It argues that while trust in these structures has declined, they remain essential for participatory democracy if transformed through better training, standardized reporting, and improved financial support.

The document details the COMPACT Local Government Collaboration Model, which uses a five-step process—Purpose, Making Sense of the Challenge, Vision and Hope, Implementing and Adapting, and Reflection and Learning—to improve municipal governance. The model was piloted in 2025 in the Blue Crane Route and Newcastle local municipalities to address water crises and local economic development, respectively. Key findings emphasize the necessity of immersive problem-understanding, constructive problem framing, and strong local political buy-in for sustainable collaboration.

The document examines how Chinese firms in Zimbabwe are coupling mining investments with energy infrastructure to overcome local power shortages and support mineral beneficiation, particularly in the lithium sector. While this model has increased Zimbabwe's lithium revenues from $70 million in 2022 to over $600 million in 2024, it has raised significant concerns regarding environmental degradation, lack of community consultation, and the risk of perpetuating an extractive 'pit-to-port' model where high-value refining remains in China.

The report examines the challenges of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), noting their tendency to prioritize donor agendas and techno-economic frameworks over local social needs. It proposes South-South cooperation (SSC) as a vital complement to address these gaps through peer learning and context-specific solutions. Using South Africa and Colombia as case studies, the document identifies specific areas for collaboration, including mine closure, green industrialization, and the integration of peace-building experiences into transition planning.

The policy brief argues that for the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), a Just Transition must be a multi-sectoral regional transformation strategy rather than a narrow focus on fossil fuel phase-out. It introduces a framework based on six guiding principles—social justice, effective governance, inclusive participation, economic resilience, alignment with climate goals, and green financing—to mitigate risks in sectors like energy, tourism, and transport, while leveraging growth opportunities in the blue and orange economies. The author recommends institutionalizing social dialogue, strengthening regional policy coherence, and mobilizing scaled concessional finance to ensure the transition is equitable and supports long-term economic diversification.

The report finds widespread concern about climate impacts across the political spectrum, with a strong public demand for government-led adaptation efforts. Respondents primarily link climate change to economic risks, such as the cost of living and job security, and view adaptation as a necessary complement to, rather than a replacement for, emissions reductions.

The document examines the convergence of trade and climate policies, highlighting how unilateral trade measures and green industrial policies in advanced economies create systemic barriers for developing nations. It identifies critical gaps in policy, governance, and knowledge, and proposes a framework for multilateral dialogues under the UNFCCC to ensure a just transition.

The report argues that Africa's food systems are under severe strain from climate volatility, urbanisation, and structural inequality, which marginalise small producers and exacerbate food insecurity. It proposes a multi-level investment strategy for philanthropy—targeting niches (local innovations), regimes (policy and governance), and landscapes (structural reform)—to shift from industrial agriculture toward agroecology. The authors identify the 'regime level' as the priority entry point for systemic change, advocating for the creation of inclusive governance platforms and the removal of barriers that favour large corporations.

The report examines how the green transition is reshaping trade, investment, and geopolitics for Africa. It analyzes the impact of the EU and UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM), the decarbonisation of maritime and aviation sectors, and the potential for Africa to move from raw mineral extraction to EV battery production. It warns that without strategic policy intervention, clean energy exports and critical mineral demand may reproduce extractive economic patterns, while advocating for a unified continental approach to negotiate fairer terms in international climate-trade frameworks.

The report examines country platforms (CPs) as vehicles to integrate climate finance with national development goals in emerging economies. It argues that CPs must be country-led and grounded in macro-fiscal analysis to avoid debt vulnerabilities and ensure social inclusivity. Using the South African Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) as a primary example, the document outlines criteria for effectiveness—including whole-of-government approaches and credible project pipelines—and proposes a four-quadrant analytical framework to guide their design. It also highlights the role of philanthropy in funding early-stage technical work and the necessity of overcoming structural path dependencies to achieve genuine economic diversification.

The report identifies seven recurring patterns where international climate support reproduces structural barriers in the Global South, such as prioritising technical infrastructure over social protection and centralising decision-making power. Based on analysis of Chile, Indonesia, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, and Vietnam, it argues that Just Transition efforts are hindered by labour informality, contested land rights, and a lack of subnational delivery capacity. The framework recommends that the JTWP embed social requirements in finance, strengthen subnational institutions, develop justice-aligned data systems, shift from consultation to co-decision, and address the extractive dynamics of green supply chains.