A Just Transition Framework for CARICOM Trade

The policy brief argues that for the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), a Just Transition must be a multi-sectoral regional transformation strategy rather than a narrow focus on fossil fuel phase-out. It introduces a framework based on six guiding principles—social justice, effective governance, inclusive participation, economic resilience, alignment with climate goals, and green financing—to mitigate risks in sectors like energy, tourism, and transport, while leveraging growth opportunities in the blue and orange economies. The author recommends institutionalizing social dialogue, strengthening regional policy coherence, and mobilizing scaled concessional finance to ensure the transition is equitable and supports long-term economic diversification.

• For CARICOM, the Just Transition is structural rather than sector-specific, as the region faces acute climate vulnerability, high reliance on imported fossil fuels, and deep exposure to global trade rules, despite contributing minimally to global emissions.
• Trade is a central channel for transition risks and opportunities, with measures like the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and sustainability provisions in trade agreements linking decarbonization directly to market access.
• The proposed Just Transition framework for the Caribbean is built on six guiding principles: Social Justice & Equity; Effective Governance & Policy Coherence; Inclusive Participation & Stakeholder Engagement; Economic Resilience & Diversification; Alignment with Developmental, Climate, and Environmental Goals; and Investment & Financing for the Green Transition.
• The energy sector is a primary risk area where nine CARICOM member states rely on fuel imports for over 80% of electricity needs, with some importing up to 90%, leading to some of the highest electricity tariffs globally (exceeding $0.30 per kilowatt-hour).
• Tourism is a foundational but vulnerable pillar, contributing up to 83% of GDP in countries like Antigua and Barbuda; it faces risks from climate-driven asset degradation and shifting global preferences, as 83% of global travellers now consider sustainable travel essential.
• The transport sector is structurally inefficient, with logistics costs absorbing 16–26% of GDP—significantly higher than the OECD average of 9%—and faces high compliance costs from International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission targets.
• The 'blue economy' and 'orange economy' (creative and cultural industries) are identified as key alternative growth pathways; the blue economy generated U$407 billion in 2012, while the global market for cultural and creative goods reached $524 billion by 2020.
• The waste sector is a high-potential pathway for the circular economy, as SIDS generate 2.3 kg of municipal solid waste per day (48% higher than the global average), and the Caribbean produces 13 million tonnes of solid waste annually.
• Current Just Transition efforts in CARICOM are fragmented and donor-driven; while Jamaica and Belize have published Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS), there is no regional coordination mechanism to align trade, labour, and climate policies.
• A successful transition requires closing a multi-billion-dollar investment gap, including an estimated $11 billion for energy over the next decade and $4 billion for agriculture production, processing, and logistics.

APA

Wilson, P.-G. F. (2026). A Just Transition Framework for CARICOM Trade. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-SRC-Policy-Brief-A-Just-Transition-Framework-for-CARICOM-Trade.pdf?dm=1769598739

Chicago

Wilson, Peta-Gay Facey. A Just Transition Framework for CARICOM Trade. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2026. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-SRC-Policy-Brief-A-Just-Transition-Framework-for-CARICOM-Trade.pdf?dm=1769598739.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wilson |first1=Peta-Gay Facey |title=A Just Transition Framework for CARICOM Trade |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=January 2026 |url=https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-SRC-Policy-Brief-A-Just-Transition-Framework-for-CARICOM-Trade.pdf?dm=1769598739 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wilson2026just, author = {Wilson, Peta-Gay Facey}, title = {{A Just Transition Framework for CARICOM Trade}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2026}, month = jan, url = {https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-SRC-Policy-Brief-A-Just-Transition-Framework-for-CARICOM-Trade.pdf?dm=1769598739}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }