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Inside the ‘crystal ball’: Understanding the evolution of military in Botswana and the challenges ahead
The research paper analyzes the development of the Botswana Defence Force (BDF), arguing that the state was initially born without war-making capacity due to a preference for peace and fear of military coups. The BDF was eventually created in 1977 as a reactive response to regional instability and incursions by the Rhodesian government. The authors assess the BDF's professionalism, its challenges regarding the recruitment of women and the impact of HIV/AIDS, and the effectiveness of executive and parliamentary oversight. It concludes that while the BDF is professional and well-integrated into regional peacekeeping, it faces future challenges related to shrinking national resources and the need for a formal national security strategy.
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Document type: Research paper
The Congolese National Army In search of an identity
The document provides a historical analysis of the military forces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, beginning with the Force Publique under King Léopold II and continuing through the Zairian Armed Forces (FAZ) under President Mobutu. It details the systemic politicisation, tribalisation, and de-professionalisation of the army during the Mobutu era, which led to a breakdown in civil-military relations. The text further examines the conflicts involving the AFDL and the 'First African World War,' culminating in the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and the subsequent efforts to integrate government and rebel forces into a restructured, apolitical national army under the 2003 constitution.
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Document type: Report
Africa's Futures
Africa is experiencing rapid population growth and urbanisation, with a projected population of over 1.8 billion by 2035. While the continent shows a positive overall trend, growth is heterogeneous and often outpaced by population increases, leading to a projected rise in the number of people living in extreme poverty. The report highlights a 'demographic dividend' that remains delayed due to high fertility rates, and notes that while global democratic trends are declining, popular support for democracy in Africa remains strong despite fragile foundations. Security is shifting from large-scale interstate conflicts toward more complex, lower-fatality violence, including urban riots and terrorism. Economic growth is hindered by a lack of structural transformation and a significant infrastructure deficit, particularly in basic services like water and sanitation, which the report argues are more critical for poverty reduction than traditional trade infrastructure.
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Document type: Report
CONFLICTS IN AFRICA
The report examines how land tenure insecurity, scarcity, and the tension between customary and statutory legal systems contribute to both the structural and proximate causes of conflict in Africa. It argues that poverty and the loss of livelihoods are central to the conflict-underdevelopment cycle, and that land often serves as a tool for political struggle among elites or a source of ethnic mobilisation. Through case studies of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and Angola, the text highlights the risks of 'formalising' land rights without considering local customs and the importance of multi-sectoral, pro-poor land policies in post-conflict reconstruction.
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Document type: Report
Mono 98 frensh
The document examines disarmament as a critical component of Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) programs in post-conflict African states. It argues that disarmament must be integrated into a broader sub-regional context and a comprehensive national recovery strategy to be effective. By comparing the successful UNAMSIL mission in Sierra Leone with the complex situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the authors highlight the necessity of detailed planning, political will, and the inclusion of 'special groups' such as child soldiers and female combatants. The text emphasizes that the proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) exacerbates regional insecurity and that sustainable peace requires the destruction of weapons and the creation of viable economic alternatives for ex-combatants.
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Document type: Report
Monograph 98
This research paper examines disarmament as a critical pillar of peace-building in Africa, contrasting the successful model in Sierra Leone with the ongoing challenges in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It argues that disarmament must be integrated into broader political settlements and national recovery strategies, emphasizing the need for comprehensive planning, inclusive lead agencies, and the addressing of 'special groups' like child soldiers. The text highlights the shift from traditional peacekeeping to multifunctional peace support operations and the increasing role of regional bodies in managing African conflicts.
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Document type: Research paper
tortuousbibliog-56c8ea322e888047.pdf
The provided text is a detailed list of references, including academic books, reports from international organizations (UN, AU, ECOWAS), human rights briefings (Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch), and legal documents. The bibliography focuses on the geopolitical and security landscape of West Africa, specifically documenting the civil wars and peace processes in Liberia and Sierra Leone, the role of ECOMOG and UNMIL, and the application of international humanitarian law and transitional justice.
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Document type: Research paper
Cadre de suivi, evaluation et apprentissage du Plan National d'Adaptation de la Republique d'Haiti
The document outlines a comprehensive Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) framework for Haiti's National Adaptation Plan (NAP), which targets 340 adaptation measures in agriculture, health, infrastructure, and water resources. It defines a multi-level indicator system (contextual, strategic, sectoral, and operational) and proposes a phased implementation roadmap from 2026 to 2030. The framework emphasizes gender and social inclusion (GESI), institutional coordination through the Ministry of Environment and the National Committee on Climate Change, and the use of digital platforms for data management and international reporting to the UNFCCC.
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Document type: Report
nema_lamu-gas-exploration_tors-3_2017.03.23-6067e85bfbbe7043.pdf
The provided text consists of the professional CVs and qualifications of a consultancy team proposed for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) of gas exploratory drilling in Blocks L4 and L13 in Lamu County, Kenya. It details the expertise of five specialists: an ESIA specialist, a socio-economist, a hydrologist, an environmental chemist, and a GIS specialist, listing their academic backgrounds, professional affiliations, and extensive project histories in the energy, mining, and infrastructure sectors across East Africa and beyond.
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Document type: Report
The African Union and coercive diplomacy: The case of Burundi
The document examines the African Union's (AU) unprecedented attempt to use military compellence against the government of Burundi in December 2015. After diplomatic efforts and targeted sanctions failed to stop violence against civilians, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) issued an ultimatum threatening a non-consensual military intervention under Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act. The authors argue that this threat failed to materialise due to the Burundian government's strategic use of its status as a troop-contributing country, a lack of unity among AU member states, and a regional culture of autocracy where neighbouring leaders were reluctant to challenge the extension of presidential term limits.
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Document type: Research paper
Anticipatory tribalism: accusatory politics in the ‘New Gambia’
The research examines the transition from Yahya Jammeh's autocracy to the 'New Gambia' under President Adama Barrow, noting a surge in public accusations of 'tribalism'. The authors argue that these accusations are 'anticipatory and speculative', driven by fears of future ethnic monopolies on power rather than current organised mobilisation. Historically, Gambian politics has largely downplayed ethnicity, with the exception of the late Jammeh era where he used anti-Mandinka rhetoric. In the 'New Gambia', the discourse focuses on the moral character of political actors, where accusing an opponent of tribalism serves to delegitimise them as 'indecent' or 'uncivilised'. The authors conclude that while ethnic identification exists in daily life and is linked to livelihoods, it remains a marginal tool for formal political power compared to the potent use of tribalist slurs as a meta-political weapon.
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Document type: Research paper
Armed Conflict and Post-Conflict Justice, 1946–2006: A Dataset
The authors present a dataset of 357 armed conflict episodes (1946–2006) to track post-conflict justice (PCJ) processes. PCJ is defined as any process initiated within five years of a conflict's end to address wrongdoings. The dataset identifies six primary tools: trials, truth commissions, reparations, amnesties, purges, and exiles. Preliminary analysis shows that the choice of justice mechanism is influenced by conflict intensity, incompatibility (territorial vs. government control), and the type of termination (victory vs. bargained solution). For instance, trials are more frequent after decisive victories, while amnesties are more common after bargained solutions and in high-intensity civil wars.
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Document type: Research paper
Blocking Resolution: How External States can Prolong Civil Wars
The research argues that external states often intervene in civil wars to pursue objectives separate from those of internal combatants, which makes conflicts harder to resolve. Using Cox regressions on data from 1945 to 2004, the author finds that 'independent interventions' significantly increase war duration compared to 'non-independent' interventions. This is attributed to the introduction of additional demands that shrink the bargaining range, the difficulty of updating beliefs in multi-party conflicts, and the lower costs of fighting for external states compared to domestic actors.
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Document type: Research paper
Diffusion Patterns of Violence in Civil Wars
The authors analyze how violence spreads in space and time during civil wars, distinguishing between relocation diffusion (shifting violence) and escalation diffusion (expanding violence). Using a modified joint count statistic and Monte Carlo simulations on ACLED event data from Bosnia, Kosovo, Burundi, and Rwanda, the study finds that violence typically expands in scope, supporting the theory that irregular warfare lacks demarcated front lines.
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Document type: Research paper
Does Education Lead to Pacification?
The review finds a general scholarly consensus that higher levels of education have a pacifying effect on civil conflict, though this relationship is complex and varies by the type of violence. While low education is often linked to recruitment in civil wars, higher education levels are frequently observed among terrorists and genocide perpetrators. The authors highlight that inter-group educational inequalities—particularly along ethnic and religious lines—significantly increase conflict risks, whereas rapid expansions in tertiary education do not appear to drive destabilization. The document concludes that while education generally promotes peace, its impact is mediated by factors such as regime type, gender equality, and the specific nature of the political violence.
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Document type: Research paper
Education for Peace Building
The report argues that formal education systems can either fuel or mitigate armed conflict depending on their inclusivity, quality, and relationship with the community. Through case studies in Guatemala, Nepal, and Liberia, the author identifies four conflict-transforming concepts: equitable inclusion, positive socialization, the creation of social capital, and the provision of socio-economic benefits. The study finds that educational exclusion and authoritarian teaching methods often mirror and reinforce the structural inequalities that drive conflict, while participatory, child-centered education and equitable resource distribution can raise the opportunity costs of joining rebellions and foster a culture of non-violence. The report recommends that national governments and international donors integrate education into peacebuilding processes, prioritize social justice in curricula, and better link schooling to the labor market to ensure that education provides tangible hope and economic mobility.
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Document type: Report
Effectiveness of Aid on Educational Dropout in Post-Genocide Rwanda
The research examines the long-term effects of the 1994 Rwandan genocide on primary school dropout rates, specifically analyzing whether living near genocide-targeted areas increases dropout risk and if development aid mitigates this effect. Using a sample of 63,892 respondents and spatial data, the study finds that while proximity to genocide events alone does not significantly increase dropout probability, the presence of aid projects in those areas reduces the likelihood of dropout by 20%. This effect is most pronounced in low-income households, where the probability of dropout decreases by 10.6%. The study also identifies that child-headed households and rural residence are associated with higher dropout rates, while female students and those with educated household heads are less likely to drop out.
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Document type: Research paper
Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups
The research examines the determinants of external state support for rebel groups using a new dataset of 403 organizations. It argues that support is not merely a function of the civil war's general characteristics but depends on the specific attributes of the rebel group and the international relations of the target state. The findings indicate that moderately strong groups with transnational constituencies are most likely to receive aid, particularly when the target state is involved in an international rivalry or receives its own external support. Conversely, very strong or very weak groups, and those in democratic states, are less likely to be supported.
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Document type: Research paper
Fighting at Home, Fighting Abroad: How Civil Wars Lead to International Disputes
The research demonstrates that states experiencing civil wars are significantly more likely to be involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Using data from 1946 to 2001, the authors find that this 'civil peace' effect is comparable in magnitude to the 'democratic peace' effect. Analysis of over 400 MIDs reveals that the increased risk is driven by states attempting to influence the outcome of civil wars through direct intervention, externalization (such as cross-border counter-insurgency), and unintended spillovers, rather than by opportunistic attacks on weakened states or diversionary wars to consolidate domestic power.
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Document type: Research paper
Technologie humanitaire : pour un agenda de recherches critiques
The paper argues that while digital technologies offer opportunities for efficiency in crisis response, they are not neutral and can compromise fundamental humanitarian principles. It identifies key analytical prisms—humanitarian space, public-private partnerships, resource distribution (e.g., digital food/cash), human relations, and data-driven vulnerabilities—to guide future academic inquiry into the 'technological turn' of humanitarian action.
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Document type: Research paper