Anticipatory tribalism: accusatory politics in the ‘New Gambia’

The research examines the transition from Yahya Jammeh's autocracy to the 'New Gambia' under President Adama Barrow, noting a surge in public accusations of 'tribalism'. The authors argue that these accusations are 'anticipatory and speculative', driven by fears of future ethnic monopolies on power rather than current organised mobilisation. Historically, Gambian politics has largely downplayed ethnicity, with the exception of the late Jammeh era where he used anti-Mandinka rhetoric. In the 'New Gambia', the discourse focuses on the moral character of political actors, where accusing an opponent of tribalism serves to delegitimise them as 'indecent' or 'uncivilised'. The authors conclude that while ethnic identification exists in daily life and is linked to livelihoods, it remains a marginal tool for formal political power compared to the potent use of tribalist slurs as a meta-political weapon.

• The authors propose the concept of 'anticipatory tribalism', where political discourse is driven by the 'recognition of the potential for a tribalist future' and fears that specific groups will monopolise power, rather than by actual present-day ethnic mobilisation.
• Accusations of tribalism in The Gambia function as a 'meta-politics' used to delegitimise political opponents by framing their claims as 'indecent' and 'uncivilised', thereby delineating the boundaries of moral political decency.
• Despite frequent public allegations of 'tribalism' in media and social media, organised political mobilisation on ethnic grounds remains 'marginal' in The Gambia.
• During the final years of his presidency, Yahya Jammeh shifted from a policy of downplaying ethnicity to using inflammatory anti-Mandinka rhetoric, describing Mandinka as 'foreigners' and threatening to 'wipe you out'.
• The 'New Gambia' under President Adama Barrow has maintained a legal silence on ethnicity, with key documents like the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission Act 2017 and the Constitutional Review Commission Act 2017 avoiding ethnic quotas or specific ethnic variables.
• Ethnic identities in The Gambia are described as 'permeable' and 'mutable', often intersecting with livelihoods, caste, and regional divides rather than forming rigid, mutually exclusive political blocs.
• The 2016 presidential election results suggest that ethnic appeals were largely unsuccessful, as the electoral map was 'scrambled' and Jammeh won in many Mandinka-speaking areas, despite his anti-Mandinka rhetoric.
• In the post-Jammeh era, accusations of tribalism are often directed at the Jola and APRC by their opponents, and at the UDP and Mandinka by their opponents, often linked to suspicions of power monopolisation.

APA

HULTIN, N., & SOMMERFELT, T. (n.d.). Anticipatory tribalism: accusatory politics in the ‘New Gambia’. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/cf730b2c-7f49-49ec-b677-63225b347c9e/Anticipatory tribalism accusatory politics in the New Gambia.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

HULTIN, NIKLAS, and TONE SOMMERFELT. Anticipatory tribalism: accusatory politics in the ‘New Gambia’. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/cf730b2c-7f49-49ec-b677-63225b347c9e/Anticipatory tribalism accusatory politics in the New Gambia.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=HULTIN |first1=NIKLAS |last2=SOMMERFELT |first2=TONE |title=Anticipatory tribalism: accusatory politics in the ‘New Gambia’ |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/cf730b2c-7f49-49ec-b677-63225b347c9e/Anticipatory tribalism accusatory politics in the New Gambia.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hultinndanticipatory, author = {HULTIN, NIKLAS and SOMMERFELT, TONE}, title = {{Anticipatory tribalism: accusatory politics in the ‘New Gambia’}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/cf730b2c-7f49-49ec-b677-63225b347c9e/Anticipatory tribalism accusatory politics in the New Gambia.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }