The African Union and coercive diplomacy: The case of Burundi

The document examines the African Union's (AU) unprecedented attempt to use military compellence against the government of Burundi in December 2015. After diplomatic efforts and targeted sanctions failed to stop violence against civilians, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) issued an ultimatum threatening a non-consensual military intervention under Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act. The authors argue that this threat failed to materialise due to the Burundian government's strategic use of its status as a troop-contributing country, a lack of unity among AU member states, and a regional culture of autocracy where neighbouring leaders were reluctant to challenge the extension of presidential term limits.

• In December 2015, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) took the unprecedented step of threatening military intervention in Burundi without the government's consent, invoking Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act to protect civilians.
• The threat of intervention via the proposed African Protection and Prevention Mission in Burundi (MAPROBU) failed because the AU lacked a reputation for such actions, failed to maintain public unity, and faced significant legal and material hurdles.
• The Burundian government successfully resisted the AU's coercive diplomacy by leveraging its role as a major contributor of peacekeepers to AU and UN operations, specifically AMISOM in Somalia.
• Regional dynamics within the East African Community (EAC) undermined the AU's efforts, as neighbouring autocrats were unwilling to set a precedent against the extension of presidential term limits.
• The AU's approach to the Burundi crisis followed a gradual escalation of conflict management tools, moving from preventive diplomacy and special envoys to targeted sanctions before attempting coercive military threats.

APA

WILÉN, N., & WILLIAMS, P. D. (n.d.). The African Union and coercive diplomacy: The case of Burundi. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/28c99fe9-eccf-4a2a-91e3-67cb7fc648c6/Accepted Manuscript- The African Union and Coercive Diplomacy- The Case of Burundi.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

WILÉN, NINA, and PAUL D. WILLIAMS. The African Union and coercive diplomacy: The case of Burundi. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/28c99fe9-eccf-4a2a-91e3-67cb7fc648c6/Accepted Manuscript- The African Union and Coercive Diplomacy- The Case of Burundi.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=WILÉN |first1=NINA |last2=WILLIAMS |first2=PAUL D. |title=The African Union and coercive diplomacy: The case of Burundi |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/28c99fe9-eccf-4a2a-91e3-67cb7fc648c6/Accepted Manuscript- The African Union and Coercive Diplomacy- The Case of Burundi.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wilnndafrican, author = {WILÉN, NINA and WILLIAMS, PAUL D.}, title = {{The African Union and coercive diplomacy: The case of Burundi}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/28c99fe9-eccf-4a2a-91e3-67cb7fc648c6/Accepted Manuscript- The African Union and Coercive Diplomacy- The Case of Burundi.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }