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Strengthening Poland’s Nuclear Strategy through Financing, Small Modular Reactors, and International Collaboration
The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) recommends that Poland update its nuclear strategy to include a transparent financing model, a clear role for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and a detailed roadmap for its second nuclear power plant (EJ2). The report argues that nuclear power is essential for Poland's decarbonisation, noting that in some modelled scenarios, nuclear capacity could reach 21 GW by 2050. CATF specifically advises against the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel due to proliferation risks and suggests that Poland leverage SMRs to decarbonise industrial sites and district heating. Additionally, the report calls for stronger regional collaboration within Central and Eastern Europe to build a resilient nuclear supply chain and workforce.
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Document type: Report
Solar is EU’s biggest power source for the first time ever
In June 2025, solar power became the largest source of electricity in the EU, generating 22.1% of the total supply. This milestone coincided with record-high wind generation for May and June and a record low for coal's share of electricity. However, the first half of 2025 saw an overall increase in fossil fuel generation, driven by higher gas use and lower hydropower output due to drought.
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Document type: Report
Heat and power: Impacts of the 2025 heatwave in Europe
The June–July 2025 heatwave in Europe increased electricity demand by up to 14% and caused average daily power prices to double or triple in several countries. While record solar generation of 45 TWh in June 2025 helped maintain daytime stability, the heatwave triggered thermal power plant outages, particularly affecting France's nuclear fleet. The report argues for the deployment of battery storage, interconnection, and demand flexibility to mitigate future extreme weather risks.
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Document type: Report
Building Forward Better
The report examines the challenges and opportunities for a 'green recovery' in Ukraine following Russia's invasion, which caused direct damages of USD 176 billion. While Ukraine has established governance structures and transparency tools like the DREAM platform, it lacks a unified national reconstruction strategy, leaving sustainability efforts fragmented. The document highlights the town of Trostianets as a successful local model of sustainable rebuilding and suggests that Ukraine align its recovery with EU standards, such as the EU Taxonomy and the Recovery and Resilience Facility. It recommends the adoption of international green building and infrastructure certifications (e.g., EDGE, Envision) to ensure long-term resilience and climate neutrality.
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Document type: Report
Strategy at the Geopolitical Crossroads: The Imperative for Secure and Clean Energy in Central and Eastern Europe
The policy brief examines the energy landscape of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the region's struggle to balance immediate energy affordability with long-term decarbonisation. It identifies new security risks, specifically China's dominance in clean energy supply chains and conflicting policy signals from the US and EU. The author advocates for a technology-neutral approach—integrating nuclear, renewables, and emerging technologies like CCS—and suggests that CEE can become a clean-tech manufacturing hub. Furthermore, it emphasizes the strategic importance of integrating Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans into the EU energy grid to enhance regional resilience.
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Document type: Policy brief
EU national targets show gas in decline
Analysis of EU National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) indicates a structural shift toward a cleaner, electrified economy, with gas demand projected to fall by 7% by 2030. The EU is targeting a 30% electrification rate and a 66% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030. While solar targets are achievable and potentially conservative compared to market outlooks, wind targets face significant implementation challenges due to grid and permitting bottlenecks. The report recommends that the European Commission enforce more comprehensive and digitally accessible reporting for future NECP cycles.
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Document type: Report
Will OPEC end the US oil boom?
The document reports on a significant shift in the oil market as OPEC+ increases production, leading to lower prices and potential decline in US shale output. It highlights a landmark German court ruling establishing that high-emitting companies can be held liable for climate damages and discusses various challenges facing the LNG and gas power sectors globally, alongside regulatory uncertainties for hydrogen in the US and EU.
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Document type: Newsletter
Fit for 2040
The document argues that the EU ETS1 is fit for purpose until 2035, after which a supply-demand mismatch for allowances may emerge. It strongly warns that integrating international carbon credits (Article 6) or carbon removals into the ETS would undermine the carbon price incentive, risk emissions mitigation avoidance, and divert investment away from domestic decarbonisation. For the upcoming ETS2, the brief recommends allowing the market to function for several years before making adjustments due to high price uncertainty. It also cautions against merging ETS1 and ETS2 due to differences in market actor price sensitivity and suggests maintaining national targets beyond 2030 to support the ETS.
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Document type: Policy brief
UNBOUND THE BATTLE OVER FREEDOM
The document explores the ideological battle over the concept of 'freedom,' contrasting the right-wing's individualistic, consumer-driven 'freedom from constraint' with a proposed 'Green freedom' based on interdependence and ecological limits. It analyzes how this struggle manifests across various domains: the gig economy's algorithmic management, the impact of immersive technologies (XR) on cognitive autonomy, the targeting of gender studies by illiberal regimes, and the need for 'comprehensive security' in the Baltic states that integrates social welfare with military defense. The text argues that for the Green movement to succeed, it must move beyond technical expertise and reclaim freedom as a collective, emancipatory value that decouples wellbeing from economic growth.
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Document type: Report
THE EU’S NEXT NDC: AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN ENERGY SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS
The report calls for the EU to adopt a 2035 NDC target of at least 72.5% emissions reduction, aligning with a straight-line path toward a 90% reduction by 2040 and net zero by 2050. It emphasizes that a robust, investible target, supported by the Clean Industrial Deal and sectoral policies in energy, transport, and industry, will reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports—which cost the EU EUR 376 billion in 2024—and enhance global competitiveness. The authors advocate for a 'competitive sustainability' approach and strengthened public-private collaboration, citing models from Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands to accelerate the transition.
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Document type: Report
The Devil is in the Details: Minerals, Batteries, and US Dependence on Chinese Imports
The report highlights a critical gap in US trade data that obscures the extent of firm-level dependence on Chinese suppliers for battery minerals and components. While China dominates global production—controlling 70% of battery pack assembly and 91% of anode production—current US tracking relies on outdated Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes and allows firms to hide import partners. The authors recommend updating trade codes, enhancing intergovernmental data sharing, expanding reporting requirements for electric vehicle tax credits, and leading international efforts for trade code standardization to enable more nuanced policymaking and supply chain diversification.
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Document type: Policy brief
Modernisation Fund - First evaluation of the monitoring rules
Carbon Market Watch criticizes the EU Modernisation Fund for continuing to finance fossil gas, waste incineration, and biomass projects, noting that at least EUR 4.2 billion (27% of spending) has gone to investments not aligned with the fund's aims. The organization calls for more ambitious emissions avoidance benchmarks and a shift in funding toward grid improvements, renewables, building renovation, and public transport electrification to support lower-income member states ahead of the 2027 ETS2 implementation.
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Document type: Statement
The Tumultuous Path Toward EU-China-Africa Trilateral Cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa
The document analyzes the interdependencies between the EU, China, and Africa regarding critical raw materials (CRMs). While the EU seeks to reduce its reliance on China through initiatives like the Critical Raw Materials Act and the Global Gateway, the paper argues that complete decoupling is unfeasible due to China's dominance in midstream processing and the high costs of establishing independent European supply chains. It highlights that African nations, particularly the DRC and Zimbabwe, are increasingly pushing for local value addition and processing rather than mere extraction. The author proposes a trilateral cooperation model, using a hypothetical cobalt project in the DRC, where the EU provides technical training and financing, China provides refining technology and market access, and the DRC ensures resource ownership and local industrial development.
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Document type: Research paper
Designing decarbonisation pathways for heavy industry in Central and Eastern Europe
The document argues that Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries must implement coordinated national and regional strategies to decarbonise heavy industries like refining and ammonia production. It identifies four priority actions: cost-competitive policy design, targeted deployment in industrial clusters, shared financial risk schemes, and cross-border collaboration for infrastructure. The analysis highlights that CEE accounts for nearly 25% of EU hydrogen consumption, with Poland as the dominant user, and emphasizes that the lack of domestic regulatory frameworks for CO2 storage in Poland currently forces a reliance on more expensive export options.
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Document type: Briefing
Stolen voices: Russia-aligned operation manipulates audio and images to impersonate experts
Operation Overload is a high-volume Russian influence campaign that impersonates over 80 organisations, including media outlets and universities, to sow division in democratic nations. In early 2025, it targeted 10 countries—primarily Germany, France, and Ukraine—using AI-cloned voices and forged logos to spread narratives against Ukraine and destabilise domestic politics. While most content had limited organic reach, one video claiming USAID paid celebrities to visit Ukraine garnered over 4.2 million views. The operation relies on bot networks and commercial services to amplify its content and frequently tags research organisations to distract them with debunking requests.
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Document type: Briefing
CATF’s Recommendations for the PINC Update: A New Vision for EU Nuclear Leadership
The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) argues that the EU must update its Nuclear Illustrative Programme (PINC) to better support nuclear energy through technology-neutral state aid, streamlined regulatory frameworks for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and strengthened domestic fuel supply chains to reduce reliance on Russia.
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Document type: Report
Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment
Ember's response to the ERAA 2025 consultation highlights significant discrepancies between ENTSO-E's proposed commodity prices and market futures, noting that fossil fuel prices are underestimated while CO2 prices are overestimated. The document argues that the ERAA underestimates battery storage and demand flexibility potential, fails to account for battery CAPEX reductions, and underestimates wind and solar capacities in several European countries compared to National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and industry forecasts.
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Document type: Report
10th Three Seas Summit: From gas trap to clean power and connectivity
The briefing assesses the energy transition of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) region, noting that while some countries have reduced gas demand and integrated grids, Russian gas imports rose in 2024 for several members. It warns that planned expansions of LNG and pipeline capacity by 2030 risk creating stranded assets due to declining demand. The author recommends that the 10th Three Seas Summit focus on a 2027 Russian gas phase-out, the creation of a 'Transmission Highway' for clean power, and the development of regional energy hubs.
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Document type: Briefing
Türkiye Elektrik Görünümü 2025
In 2024, Türkiye's combined wind and solar electricity generation reached 62 TWh, surpassing the historical peak of domestic coal production (53 TWh in 2019). While solar generation grew by 39% to reach a 7.5% share of total production, wind growth slowed, maintaining a 10.7% share. Despite a record high in total coal generation (122 TWh), making Türkiye the highest coal-producing country in Europe, the overall share of fossil fuels fell to 55%, the lowest since 1993, driven by a decrease in natural gas use. However, renewable growth has not kept pace with a 5.5% increase in electricity demand, which was driven by record temperatures in June and July. Türkiye's new 2035 targets aim to quadruple wind and solar capacity to 120 GW, which could potentially reduce the fossil fuel share of electricity production to below 20%.
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Document type: Report
Türkiye Electricity Review 2025
In 2024, wind and solar power in Türkiye permanently overtook domestic coal generation for the first time, reaching a combined share of 18% of electricity generation. Solar power saw a record year-on-year increase of 39%, while wind power growth slowed. Despite this, electricity demand grew by 5.5% in 2024, largely driven by record temperatures, meaning renewables are not yet expanding fast enough to fully displace imported fossil fuels. Türkiye has set ambitious 2035 targets to quadruple wind and solar capacity to 120 GW, which could potentially reduce the fossil fuel share of electricity to below 20%. However, the report notes that current 2030 targets are unambitious and that grid connection capacity remains a primary barrier to deployment.
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Document type: Report