Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment

Ember's response to the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) 2025 consultation argues that the proposed input data underestimates the potential of clean flexibility and renewable energy while misrepresenting commodity prices, which could lead to overinvestment in fossil assets.

• Ember asserts that the commodity prices proposed by ENTSO-E for the ERAA 2025—based on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2024 Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)—are inconsistent with futures prices and European Commission (EC) projections. Specifically, for 2030SS, IEA APS fossil fuel prices are significantly underestimated, while CO2 prices are overestimated. Compared to futures prices, the proposed natural gas and hard coal prices are 26% and 35% lower respectively, while the CO2 price is 53% higher. Furthermore, IEA APS fossil fuel prices are 40% lower than those in the EC 'With Additional Measures' (WAM) scenario, while CO2 prices are 34% higher.
• The ERAA 2025 preliminary values for demand-side flexibility (DSF) and battery storage are significantly lowerCS lower than industry assessments. Ember notes that ERAA 2025 estimates 39 GW of implicit and explicit DSF potential by 2030, whereas industry assessments anticipate 160 GW of upward and 130 GW of downward flexibility. Additionally, ERAA 2025 assumes 136 GW of battery storage by 2030, while the latest EASE outlook projects 163 GW. Ember highlights that for most EUS EU countries, the ERAA assumes zero demand shifting potential from heat pumps and EVs by 2030.
• Ember criticizes the ERAA 2025 for using conservative default values for battery storage CAPEX that do not account for ongoing cost reductions. The document notes that the average price of lithium-ion battery packs dropped by 20% in 2024 compared to 2023 and is 84% lower than a decade ago. Ember argues that the current default values fail to reflect market efficiency gains and exhibit significant divergence across different countries.

APA

Cremona, E., Petrovich, B., & Geneletti, G. (2025). Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/04/Ember_ERAA2025_consultation_response.pdf

Chicago

Cremona, Elisabeth, Beatrice Petrovich, and Gianluca Geneletti. Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/04/Ember_ERAA2025_consultation_response.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cremona |first1=Elisabeth |last2=Petrovich |first2=Beatrice |last3=Geneletti |first3=Gianluca |title=Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment |publisher=Ember |date=23 April 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/04/Ember_ERAA2025_consultation_response.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cremona2025embers, author = {Cremona, Elisabeth and Petrovich, Beatrice and Geneletti, Gianluca}, title = {{Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/04/Ember_ERAA2025_consultation_response.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }