Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment

Ember's response to the ERAA 2025 consultation highlights significant discrepancies between ENTSO-E's proposed commodity prices and market futures, noting that fossil fuel prices are underestimated while CO2 prices are overestimated. The document argues that the ERAA underestimates battery storage and demand flexibility potential, fails to account for battery CAPEX reductions, and underestimates wind and solar capacities in several European countries compared to National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and industry forecasts.

• The commodity prices proposed by ENTSO-E for the ERAA 2025, based on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2024 Announced Pledges Scenario, are inconsistent with futures prices and European Commission projections. Specifically, fossil fuel prices for 2030 are significantly underestimated, while CO2 prices are overestimated.
• The ERAA 2025 underestimates the potential for demand-side flexibility and battery storage. The preliminary value for demand flexibility by 2030 (39 GW across the EU) is far lower than industry assessments of 160 GW upward and 130 GW downward flexibility. Additionally, the ERAA's projected 136 GW of battery storage by 2030 is lower than the EASE outlook of 163 GW.
• The ERAA 2025 preliminary default values for battery storage CAPEX are too conservative because they do not account for rapid cost reductions in lithium-ion battery packs, which fell by 20% in 2024 compared to 2023.
• Draft ERAA generation capacities for solar and wind are lower than both policy targets in National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and market forecasts from SolarPower Europe and WindEurope in several countries. For solar, discrepancies are noted in Spain, France, Poland, and Portugal; for wind, discrepancies appear in France, Croatia, Latvia, Sweden, and Türkiye.

APA

Cremona, E., Petrovich, B., & Geneletti, G. (2025). Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/04/Ember_ERAA2025_consultation_response.pdf

Chicago

Cremona, Elisabeth, Beatrice Petrovich, and Gianluca Geneletti. Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/04/Ember_ERAA2025_consultation_response.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cremona |first1=Elisabeth |last2=Petrovich |first2=Beatrice |last3=Geneletti |first3=Gianluca |title=Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment |publisher=Ember |date=23 April 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/04/Ember_ERAA2025_consultation_response.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cremona2025embers, author = {Cremona, Elisabeth and Petrovich, Beatrice and Geneletti, Gianluca}, title = {{Ember’s response to the public consultation on European Resource Adequacy Assessment}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/04/Ember_ERAA2025_consultation_response.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }