EU national targets show gas in decline

Analysis of EU National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) indicates a structural shift toward a cleaner, electrified economy, with gas demand projected to fall by 7% by 2030. The EU is targeting a 30% electrification rate and a 66% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030. While solar targets are achievable and potentially conservative compared to market outlooks, wind targets face significant implementation challenges due to grid and permitting bottlenecks. The report recommends that the European Commission enforce more comprehensive and digitally accessible reporting for future NECP cycles.

• EU gas demand is projected to decrease by 7% by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, falling from 326 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 302 bcm. This trend follows a sharp decline already observed between 2021 and 2023, when demand dropped from 404 bcm to 326 bcm.
• The EU's electrification rate—the share of electricity in the final energy demand across all sectors—is planned to rise from 23% in 2023 to 30% by 2030.
• Member States collectively target a 66% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030, an increase from 47% in 2024. This target remains below the REPowerEU ambition of 72%.
• To meet 2030 targets, the EU aims to install 670 GW of solar and 450 GW of wind capacity. Solar targets are considered achievable, as 65 GW was built in 2024 alone. However, wind targets require a significant increase in effort, as the EU has never exceeded 16 GW of wind capacity installations in a single year.
• Market outlooks suggest a divergence between national plans and industry expectations: SolarPower Europe forecasts solar capacity will reach 816 GW by 2030, exceeding NECP plans. Conversely, WindEurope forecasts only 350 GW of wind power by 2030, roughly 100 GW lower than NECP and REPowerEU targets.
• The EU plans to reduce total emissions by 54% from 1990 levels by 2030, nearly reaching the overall EU target of a 55% reduction.

APA

Harrison, T. (2025). EU national targets show gas in decline. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Report-EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf

Chicago

Harrison, Tomos. EU national targets show gas in decline. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Report-EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Harrison |first1=Tomos |title=EU national targets show gas in decline |publisher=Ember |date=17 June 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Report-EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harrison2025national, author = {Harrison, Tomos}, title = {{EU national targets show gas in decline}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Report-EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }