EU national targets show gas in decline

This report by Ember analyzes the final National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of EU Member States to project the bloc's energy trajectory for 2030. The findings indicate a structural shift toward a cleaner, electrified economy characterized by declining gas demand and rising renewable energy generation, though some targets still fall short of REPowerEU ambitions.

• EU gas demand is projected to decrease by 7% by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, falling from 326 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 302 bcm. This trend suggests that continuing to expand gas infrastructure may lead to oversupply and the creation of stranded assets.
• The electrification rate in the EU is expected to rise from 23% in 2023 to 30% by 2030, approaching the indicative target of 32-33% established in the Action Plan for Affordable Energy.
• Member States target a 66% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030, which is an increase from 47% in 2024 but remains below the REPowerEU target of 72%.
• To meet 2030 targets, the EU aims to double wind and solar capacities, targeting 450 GW of wind and 670 GW of solar. While solar targets are largely achievable based on 2024 installation rates (65 GW), wind targets require a significant increase in annual additions, as the EU has never previously built more than 16 GW of wind capacity in a single year.
• The EU is projected to achieve a 41% share of renewables in gross energy consumption by 2030 and a 54% reduction in total emissions from 1990 levels, nearly reaching the EU's 55% reduction target.
• Ember identifies several failures in the NECP process, including incomplete data reporting by Member States (specifically noting that Belgium, Estonia, and Poland had not submitted plans at the time of writing) and a lack of centralized, digitally accessible data from the European Commission.

APA

Harrison, T. (2025). EU national targets show gas in decline. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Report-EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf

Chicago

Harrison, Tomos. EU national targets show gas in decline. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Report-EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Harrison |first1=Tomos |title=EU national targets show gas in decline |publisher=Ember |date=17 June 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Report-EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harrison2025national, author = {Harrison, Tomos}, title = {{EU national targets show gas in decline}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/Report-EU-national-targets-show-gas-in-decline.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }