Strategy at the Geopolitical Crossroads: The Imperative for Secure and Clean Energy in Central and Eastern Europe

The policy brief examines the energy landscape of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the region's struggle to balance immediate energy affordability with long-term decarbonisation. It identifies new security risks, specifically China's dominance in clean energy supply chains and conflicting policy signals from the US and EU. The author advocates for a technology-neutral approach—integrating nuclear, renewables, and emerging technologies like CCS—and suggests that CEE can become a clean-tech manufacturing hub. Furthermore, it emphasizes the strategic importance of integrating Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans into the EU energy grid to enhance regional resilience.

• The war in Ukraine exposed the vulnerability of the EU's dependence on Russian natural gas, which accounted for approximately 45% of pipeline and LNG imports in 2021. While the EU reduced this to less than 15% by the end of 2023, the shift to LNG from the U.S. and Qatar has increased costs and created new affordability challenges in CEE.
• Energy security has evolved into three layers: domestic resource availability, the ability to maintain international trade connections, and the availability of critical raw materials and clean technology production. China currently holds a dominant structural position in the third layer, controlling the value chain for critical minerals and clean energy technologies like solar PV and batteries.
• CEE nations face conflicting pressures from the U.S. and the EU; while the EU pushes for climate-driven transition, some U.S. officials encourage 'energy freedom' over 'enforced climate policies,' tempting CEE states with affordable U.S. LNG that may risk long-term technological lock-in and dependency.
• The EU's enlargement process involving Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans presents both a geopolitical necessity and a structural challenge to decarbonisation, as these candidate nations often rely on aging infrastructure and fossil fuels.
• To ensure reliability, the CEE region should adopt a technology-neutral strategy that combines variable renewables with 'clean firm' power, specifically utility-scale and small modular reactors (SMRs), advanced geothermal, and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• The CEE region has the potential to transition from an energy consumer to a clean-tech manufacturing hub, leveraging skilled labor and EU strategies like the Critical Raw Materials Act to re-shore value chains and reduce reliance on China.

APA

Covatariu, A. (2025). Strategy at the Geopolitical Crossroads: The Imperative for Secure and Clean Energy in Central and Eastern Europe. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/resource/strategy-geopolitical-crossroads-imperative-secure-clean-energy-central-eastern-europe/

Chicago

Covatariu, Andrei. Strategy at the Geopolitical Crossroads: The Imperative for Secure and Clean Energy in Central and Eastern Europe. Clean Air Task Force, 2025. https://www.catf.us/resource/strategy-geopolitical-crossroads-imperative-secure-clean-energy-central-eastern-europe/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Covatariu |first1=Andrei |title=Strategy at the Geopolitical Crossroads: The Imperative for Secure and Clean Energy in Central and Eastern Europe |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=30 June 2025 |url=https://www.catf.us/resource/strategy-geopolitical-crossroads-imperative-secure-clean-energy-central-eastern-europe/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{covatariu2025strategy, author = {Covatariu, Andrei}, title = {{Strategy at the Geopolitical Crossroads: The Imperative for Secure and Clean Energy in Central and Eastern Europe}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://www.catf.us/resource/strategy-geopolitical-crossroads-imperative-secure-clean-energy-central-eastern-europe/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }