THE EU’S NEXT NDC: AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN ENERGY SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS

The report calls for the EU to adopt a 2035 NDC target of at least 72.5% emissions reduction, aligning with a straight-line path toward a 90% reduction by 2040 and net zero by 2050. It emphasizes that a robust, investible target, supported by the Clean Industrial Deal and sectoral policies in energy, transport, and industry, will reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports—which cost the EU EUR 376 billion in 2024—and enhance global competitiveness. The authors advocate for a 'competitive sustainability' approach and strengthened public-private collaboration, citing models from Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands to accelerate the transition.

• The report proposes a 2035 target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 72.5% relative to 1990 levels, which would create a linear trajectory between the 2030 target of 55% and the proposed 2040 target of 90%.
• High dependence on imported fossil fuels remains a significant fiscal and geopolitical risk, with the EU spending EUR 376 billion on these imports in 2024.
• The expansion of renewable energy, specifically wind and solar, has already provided economic benefits by allowing the EU to avoid EUR 59 billion in fossil fuel imports since 2019.
• The EU's land sector, while currently a net carbon sink removing approximately 200 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023, has seen its sink capacity decrease by over 40% since 2010.
• Fossil fuel subsidies in EU Member States surged to nearly EUR 140 billion in 2022 due to the energy crisis, and 48% of these subsidies currently have no end date.
• The report identifies the 'Clean Industrial Deal' as a primary delivery mechanism for the NDC to unlock clean technology opportunities and future-proof business models.
• To achieve a just and inclusive transition in transport, the EU must implement the phase-out of new internal combustion engine vehicle sales by 2035 and address the lack of charging infrastructure.
• The report advocates for a 'competitive sustainability' approach that integrates ESG assets and social benefits into competitiveness metrics, moving beyond traditional GDP.

APA

Briner, G., Giannelli, F., & Pardo, R. (2025). THE EU’S NEXT NDC: AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN ENERGY SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS. We Mean Business Coalition. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/EU-NDCs_Final-report.pdf

Chicago

Briner, Gregory, Francesco Giannelli, and Romain Pardo. THE EU’S NEXT NDC: AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN ENERGY SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS. We Mean Business Coalition, 2025. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/EU-NDCs_Final-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Briner |first1=Gregory |last2=Giannelli |first2=Francesco |last3=Pardo |first3=Romain |title=THE EU’S NEXT NDC: AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN ENERGY SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS |publisher=We Mean Business Coalition |date=June 2025 |url=https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/EU-NDCs_Final-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{briner2025eus, author = {Briner, Gregory and Giannelli, Francesco and Pardo, Romain}, title = {{THE EU’S NEXT NDC: AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN ENERGY SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS}}, institution = {We Mean Business Coalition}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/EU-NDCs_Final-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }