Search Climate Insights Directory

The briefing assesses the energy transition of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) region, noting that while some countries have reduced gas demand and integrated grids, Russian gas imports rose in 2024 for several members. It warns that planned expansions of LNG and pipeline capacity by 2030 risk creating stranded assets due to declining demand. The author recommends that the 10th Three Seas Summit focus on a 2027 Russian gas phase-out, the creation of a 'Transmission Highway' for clean power, and the development of regional energy hubs.

ClientEarth argues that EU State aid policy currently lacks environmental mainstreaming, allowing for the approval of aid that supports environmentally harmful activities, such as fossil fuels. The briefing asserts that there are no fundamental legal obstacles to integrating environmental requirements and proposes three main pillars: systemic verification of compliance with EU environmental law, horizontal application of the "Do No Significant Harm" (DNSH) principle, and the inclusion of environmental risks when assessing the negative effects of aid on competition and trade.

The document examines the evolution of stabilization clauses in the mining sector, arguing that traditional 'freezing' and 'economic equilibrium' clauses often constrain a state's right to regulate. It promotes the 2020 OECD Guiding Principles, which delegitimize non-fiscal stabilization and advocate for a targeted, commercially justified approach to fiscal stabilization. The guide introduces the concept of 'revenue certainty' for governments and provides specific model clauses for laws and contracts to ensure that investors' needs for predictability are balanced against the state's public interest objectives and the need to prevent tax base erosion.

The report examines the state of green public procurement (GPP) in South Africa, noting that while the country lacks dedicated GPP legislation, the Public Procurement Act of 2024 provides a new opening for sustainable development measures. It highlights successful subnational initiatives in the Western Cape and cities like Cape Town and Tshwane, but identifies systemic barriers including a 'fear of the auditor', high perceived 'green premiums', and limited capacity among small, medium, and micro enterprises (SMMEs). The authors recommend embedding GPP into national law, creating a centralized knowledge platform, and developing a robust monitoring and evaluation framework to track environmental outcomes.

Wind energy growth in Europe has been hindered by inflation, supply chain issues, and permitting delays, but is now showing signs of recovery through increased turbine orders and auction volumes. While onshore costs plateaued or rose slightly since 2021, offshore wind continues to see cost declines, and both remain cheaper than fossil gas generation. Despite this, a delivery gap remains between current forecasts and the 2030 EU targets, requiring further policy implementation and grid reforms.

The IPIE analyzed GenAI usage across 50 countries with competitive national elections in 2024. Findings show that GenAI was reported in 80% of these countries, primarily for content creation (90% of cases). While 69% of instances served malicious ends, 16% were benevolent. The study highlights a significant challenge in actor identification, with 46% of cases remaining unclear, and notes that foreign actors were involved in 20% of reported incidents, all for nefarious purposes.

The document analyzes the strategic and ideological alignment between Benjamin Netanyahu's government and European far-right actors, such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán and the Netherlands' Geert Wilders. It argues that Israel uses these 'illiberal' allies to bypass EU consensus and legitimize its policies in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, while the European parties use the relationship to deflect accusations of antisemitism. This alliance is characterized as a 'quid-pro-quo' based on shared hostility toward Islam, multiculturalism, and international law, ultimately aiming to establish 'illiberal polypore states' that exploit democratic institutions for populist ends.

The document outlines the outcomes of a TSO roundtable held during the 2024 PCI Energy Days, focusing on the need for integrated energy hubs, increased connectivity for landlocked countries, the resolution of financing and regulatory hurdles, and the deployment of short-term flexibility tools to support the energy transition in Central and Eastern Europe.

Climate change is significantly increasing the number of winter days with minimum temperatures above 0°C across the Northern Hemisphere. Analysis of the decade 2014-2023 shows that over one-third of analyzed countries and 44% of analyzed cities experienced at least one additional week of above-freezing days annually. Europe is the most affected region, with some countries like Lithuania and Latvia seeing over 20 additional above-freezing days per year. These shifts impact snowfall, the USD 12.5 billion winter sports industry, water supplies, and ecosystem health.

The report examines Indonesia's GPP landscape, noting that public procurement accounts for over 45% of government spending (approximately 6.6% of nominal GDP). While a legal framework exists, GPP remains effectively voluntary due to a lack of enforcement. Key tools include Type 1 and 2 eco-labels, the Timber Legality Verification System (SVLK), and the Energy Efficiency Saving Label (LTHE). Major barriers include limited stakeholder knowledge, high costs of green products, and procurer risk aversion. The report recommends introducing easy-to-use tools like the CO2 Performance Ladder, enhancing capacity building, providing financial and non-financial incentives, and establishing a formal monitoring and evaluation system.

The report identifies a dual-track narrative strategy: 'Type A' narratives that exploit societal vulnerabilities to sow discord (such as anti-immigrant and gendered disinformation), and 'Type B' narratives that erode trust in democratic institutions (including electoral fraud and anti-West rhetoric). It details the use of advanced Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) based on the DISARM framework, highlighting the role of AI-generated deepfakes, website cloning, and coordinated inauthentic behavior. The findings suggest that despite EU guidelines under the Digital Services Act, voluntary recommendations are insufficient to protect democratic processes from these evolving, often state-sponsored, threats.

The policy brief outlines three core principles for the implementation of the EU's Social Climate Fund (SCF): ensuring meaningful public participation, prioritising structural solutions over temporary relief to avoid fossil fuel lock-ins, and mobilising additional financing beyond the mandatory 25% contribution. It argues that the SCF's budget of EUR 65 billion is insufficient to tackle the root causes of energy and transport poverty and calls for the redirection of ETS revenues and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies to support vulnerable households.

The study examines the drivers and barriers to the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) across five European production systems, incorporating perspectives from a wide range of stakeholders beyond just farmers. The primary drivers for adoption are economic, institutional/policy, and personal/psychological factors, while the main barriers are economic, technology-related, and institutional/policy factors. Stakeholders suggest that overcoming these hurdles requires financial support, policy reform, capacity-building, and improved coordination and communication strategies to make CSA practices more attractive to farmers.

The study evaluates four scenarios—Business-as-usual (BAU), Renewable Methane (REN-Methane), Renewable Hydrogen (REN-Hydrogen), and Cost Minimal (CM)—for the Baltic-Finland region. It finds that a 100% decarbonized gas supply is possible by 2040 under the CM scenario, which is also the most economically advantageous. The transition requires significant scaling of biomethane and renewable hydrogen, supported by substantial onshore and offshore wind capacity. The report recommends regional coordination on infrastructure, harmonized certification for low-carbon gases, and the potential banning of new fossil fuel boiler installations to meet 2050 net decarbonization goals.

The report evaluates pathways to decarbonise the Baltic-Finnish gas market, comparing a business-as-usual approach with renewable methane, renewable hydrogen, and cost-minimising scenarios. It finds that full decarbonisation by 2050 is possible, with the cost-minimising scenario offering the highest economic benefits, including a 44% reduction in total system costs and the creation of over 20,000 jobs. The analysis emphasises the critical role of onshore and offshore wind energy to power hydrogen production and suggests that existing LNG terminals can be repurposed for synthetic methane and bio-LNG. Key recommendations include regional integration of gas markets, harmonised certification for renewable gases, and the potential legal ban on connecting new buildings to the natural gas grid.

The paper evaluates four pathways—Business-as-usual, Renewable Methane, Renewable Hydrogen, and Cost Minimal—to transition the Baltic states and Finland away from fossil gas. It finds that full decarbonization by 2050 is feasible, with the Cost Minimal scenario offering the highest economic benefits and fastest emission reductions. The study details the necessary wind power capacities, investment requirements (EUR 11.3 billion for the CM scenario), and policy actions needed to integrate regional markets and scale up renewable gas production.

Analysis of draft NECPs indicates that while EU member states have significantly increased wind and solar targets since 2019, the current trajectory falls short of REPowerEU goals. Renewables are projected to generate 66% of EU electricity by 2030, missing the 72% target. The report highlights a lack of data transparency in the drafts, particularly regarding power system flexibility and post-2030 decarbonisation pathways.

The 2024 Three Seas Summit emphasized the necessity of regional coordination and private capital to advance energy transition and infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe. Key priorities include strengthening ties with the EU and U.S., supporting Ukraine's reconstruction, and leveraging a portfolio of 143 priority projects—primarily in transportation (51%) and energy (39%)—to build economic competitiveness and climate resilience.

The document evaluates how CEE countries have integrated public consultation and multilevel climate and energy dialogues (MCEDs) into their updated NECPs, finding significant variability in quality and frequent failures to meet European law requirements for early and inclusive engagement.

The report analyzes the energy strategy of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) countries, finding that planned LNG and pipeline capacity will significantly exceed projected gas demand by 2030. It warns that this creates a risk of stranded assets and security vulnerabilities due to global price volatility. The author advocates for shifting investment from gas infrastructure to wind, solar, and grid interconnectors, noting that 3SI countries could reach a 67% renewable electricity share by 2030.