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Strengthening strategic approaches for 30x30 investments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
The proposal aims to address the lack of coordination between climate, biodiversity, and development strategies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It proposes a 24-month project to create a 30x30 investment strategy that integrates biodiversity conservation with climate mitigation and adaptation, specifically focusing on the rights and engagement of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPs and LCs). Key activities include spatial modelling to identify priority conservation areas, policy alignment analysis, the development of a business plan for 30x30 implementation, and the submission of a technically sound GCF project concept note.
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Document type: Report
The 2023 Elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Challenges and Opportunities
The 2023 elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo are marked by high voter registration but significant concerns over electoral fraud, institutional corruption, and insecurity in the east. The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) faces accusations of lack of transparency and poor quality voter identification. Security forces have reportedly cracked down on opposition candidates, and the presence of armed groups like M23 in North-Kivu and Ituri threatens to disenfranchise millions. Internationally, the outcome is linked to the control of strategic minerals, particularly cobalt, with China and the West competing for influence, and regional tensions with Rwanda and Angola complicating the political landscape.
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Document type: Research paper
Development pathways for the DRC to 2050
The report analyzes the DRC's development challenges, including endemic corruption, high fertility rates, and severe infrastructure deficits. It argues that while the country possesses immense mineral and agricultural wealth, it suffers from the 'paradox of plenty.' The analysis suggests that a comprehensive strategy combining improved governance, human capital investment, agricultural intensification, and economic diversification could significantly reduce extreme poverty and increase GDP by 2050 compared to the current trajectory.
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Document type: Report
The M23 Crisis – An Opportunity to Bring Sustainable Peace to the Great Lakes Region?
The resurgence of the M23 rebel movement since late 2021 has displaced 600,000 people and heightened tensions between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. The author argues that current regional efforts—including the East African Community (EAC) Regional Force, the Nairobi Process, and the Luanda Process—are insufficient because they treat symptoms rather than the root causes of instability. The paper recommends a high-level regional political process led by the AU and UN to address long-term drivers of conflict and rebuild trust between the DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi.
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Document type: Research paper
DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS FOR THE DRC TO 2050
The report examines the 'paradox of plenty' in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where vast natural resources coexist with extreme poverty and political instability. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform, the document aims to project the country's development path to 2050 and assess how specific interventions could help the government achieve long-term growth targets.
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Document type: Report
Will the DRC’s ‘sacred union’ deliver electoral reform?
The report examines the political shift in the DRC following President Felix Tshisekedi's creation of the 'sacred union' coalition, which granted him a parliamentary majority. While this shift provides an opportunity for electoral reform and improved security in the east, the document highlights significant tensions over the content of these reforms, the independence of the electoral commission (CENI), and whether a proposed population census is a genuine development need or a strategy to delay the 2023 elections.
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Document type: Report
Waking the sleeping giant
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) faces a 'paradox of plenty,' where immense natural resources coexist with extreme poverty and poor human development indicators. On its current trajectory, the DRC is projected to remain a low-income country with stagnant per capita income and high poverty rates through 2050. Key constraints include endemic corruption, a massive infrastructure deficit in electricity and transport, and a high fertility rate that hinders the demographic dividend. The report models several intervention scenarios, finding that while agricultural improvements offer short-term poverty relief, long-term prosperity depends on structural economic transformation and improved governance. A combined comprehensive scenario suggests that concerted action across governance, infrastructure, human capital, and agriculture could reduce the extreme poverty rate to 9.6% by 2050.
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Document type: Report
Les limites au soutien des interventions dans le secteur de la sécurité en RDC
The report analyzes the failure of international interventions in the DRC's security sector between 2003 and 2013. It argues that the 'technocratic interpretation' of violence as a lack of state capacity ignored the neo-patrimonial nature of the Congolese state, where elites benefit from a fragmented and divided military (FARDC). While the 2013 defeat of the M23 rebellion provided a temporary success and a window for reform, the authors warn that the underlying political incentives for maintaining a weak, divided army remain strong. The report critiques the 'train and equip' model of SSR and the early phases of the International Security and Stabilization Support Strategy (ISSSS), suggesting that future efforts must move beyond technical fixes to address local community grievances and the opaque power structures in Kinshasa.
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Document type: Report
Limits to supporting security sector interventions in the DRC
The document examines why international efforts to reform the security sector and stabilise the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) between 2003 and 2013 achieved limited impact. It argues that the FARDC is shaped by a neo-patrimonial system where political and military elites benefit from a fragmented army and weak state institutions to maintain patronage networks. International interventions, including the International Security and Stabilisation Support Strategy (ISSSS), were overly technical—focusing on 'train-and-equip' models—and failed to address the political root causes of violence. While the 2013 defeat of the M23 rebellion provided a temporary success and a window for reform, the authors caution that the underlying incentive structures remain largely unchanged.
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Document type: Research paper
Completing the demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration process of armed groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the link to security sector reform of FARDC. Mission difficult!
The document analyzes the failure to complete multiple phases of the DDR process in the DRC, noting that ongoing violence in the eastern region and a lack of political will have hindered stability. It highlights the tension between 'brassage' (retraining and deployment) and 'mixage' (local integration) and argues that the FARDC's security sector reform cannot succeed without the effective completion of DDR. The report details the roles of international bodies like MONUSCO and the World Bank, while criticizing the Congolese government's preference for operational equipment over institutional accountability and the fragmented approach of bilateral donors.
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Document type: Briefing
The DRC at 50: Confronting the Challenges of Peace and Territorial Consolidation
The DRC faces significant hurdles in establishing state authority and territorial integrity, complicated by a stalled decentralisation process and border disputes over oil and gas deposits. The transition from MONUC to MONUSCO represents a symbolic shift toward stabilisation, while the STAREC programme attempts to restore basic institutional infrastructure in conflict zones. Resource governance remains precarious due to illegal mineral trade, lack of monitoring technology for oil exports, and legal disputes over mining contracts involving international corporations.
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Document type: Policy brief
Between rhetoric and action
The report assesses the ICC's operations in the DRC, highlighting a gap between the government's political support and its actual technical capacity to cooperate. It examines specific cases, such as those of Thomas Lubanga and Jean-Pierre Bemba, and analyzes how domestic politics and the pursuit of peace in the Kivus create tensions with the ICC's mandate. The author finds that while the ICC is viewed as a crucial tool against impunity, victims and civil society express frustration over limited outreach, perceived selectivity in prosecutions, and the Court's low public profile.
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Document type: Report
The Democratic Republic of the Congo: Elections and Beyond
The 2006 elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo ended a three-year transition, resulting in the inauguration of Joseph Kabila. While the process was generally free and fair, it revealed a deep regional divide and was marred by violent clashes in Kinshasa and renewed conflict in North Kivu led by General Nkunda. The document highlights critical needs for military reform and improved state governance to prevent social unrest and ensure long-term stability.
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Document type: Briefing
The Democratic Republic of Congo on the Eve of the Second Round of Elections
The report analyzes the transition of the Democratic Republic of Congo toward a new political dispensation, focusing on the run-off election between Joseph Kabila and Jean-Pierre Bemba. It highlights the fragility of the security situation in Kinshasa and the eastern provinces, the role of international forces like MONUC and EUFOR, and the risks posed by slow military reform and political intolerance. The document details the first-round results, the formation of political alliances, and provides four potential scenarios for the election outcome, emphasizing the need for the demobilization of candidate-specific security forces to prevent violence.
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Document type: Report
Democratic Republic of Congo Update: A second round of elections?
The Democratic Republic of Congo's first democratic elections in 40 years were largely peaceful, though logistical challenges and security threats persist in eastern provinces. While voter turnout was high, the slow counting process by the Commission Electorale Indépendante (CEI) created political tension. The document outlines two primary scenarios: a first-round victory for a candidate with over 50% of the vote, or a second-round runoff likely between Joseph Kabila and Jean-Pierre Bemba, which could lead to significant political alliances and potential instability.
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Document type: Briefing
Future Scenarios for the Democratic Republic of Congo
The report analyzes the Democratic Republic of Congo's transition toward national elections scheduled for 2006. It details the legislative progress, the operational challenges of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), and the critical role of security sector reform. The authors identify significant security threats from armed groups in Ituri, North Kivu, and Katanga, as well as political tensions involving the UDPS. Three scenarios are presented: a successful transition under the current '1+4' leadership, a transition with new leadership, or a total breakdown of order.
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Document type: Report
Update on the status of army integration in the DRC
The document provides a situation report on the military integration and Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) processes in the DRC. It details the FARDC's three-stage strategic plan to establish a national defence force by 2010, starting with light infantry brigades. The report highlights significant obstacles, including a lack of political will, severe funding shortages for equipment and salaries, and the discovery that 30-40% of listed soldiers are 'ghosts'. While coordination between international donors (via the Contact Group and EUSEC) and national bodies has improved, the process remains fragile, evidenced by high desertion rates in brassage centres and threats of re-invasion in the east.
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Document type: Briefing
Is Ituri on the Road to Stability?
The report examines the conflict in Ituri, driven by Hema-Lendu ethnic tensions and exacerbated by Ugandan and Rwandan interests. It details the Disarmament and Community Reinsertion (DCR) process, noting that while robust MONUC operations and an ultimatum from Ambassador William Swing increased disarmament numbers to over 11,000 by late April 2005, the stability remains tenuous. Key risks include delays in UNDP reinsertion projects, the continued activity of the UPC-K, and the predatory behaviour of underpaid FARDC troops.
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Document type: Report
Land, migration and conflict in eastern DRC
The research paper argues that land in eastern DRC has transitioned from a basis of social identity to a currency of political and economic power, fueling ethnic conflict. It details how colonial 'indirect rule' and post-colonial legislation, such as the 1973 General Property Law, created a dual system of tenure that marginalized rural populations and empowered elites. In Masisi and Ituri, this structural insecurity was manipulated by local and regional actors to trigger mass violence, with land becoming a 'resource' for warlords to consolidate power through the control of 'unfree labour'.
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Document type: Research paper
Defence Integration Debates in the DRC Peace Process Experts Workshop Report
The report examines the challenges of defence integration in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), arguing that the process is primarily a short-term political measure to end hostilities rather than a purely military reform. It highlights a history of governance deficits, where military professionalism was replaced by clientelism and ethnic representativity, leading to state collapse. The document advocates for a comprehensive approach to security sector reform (SSR) that integrates defence, public service, and business sector reforms to prevent the recurrence of a destructive 'war economy'. It also details a workshop conducted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and Labor Optimus to encourage the DRC's engagement with the SADC Organ for Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation (OPDSC).
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Document type: Report