The M23 Crisis – An Opportunity to Bring Sustainable Peace to the Great Lakes Region?

The resurgence of the M23 rebel movement since late 2021 has displaced 600,000 people and heightened tensions between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. The author argues that current regional efforts—including the East African Community (EAC) Regional Force, the Nairobi Process, and the Luanda Process—are insufficient because they treat symptoms rather than the root causes of instability. The paper recommends a high-level regional political process led by the AU and UN to address long-term drivers of conflict and rebuild trust between the DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi.

• The resurgence of the M23 rebel movement since late 2021 has caused significant humanitarian distress, displacing an additional 600,000 people in 18 months.
• The M23 has demonstrated increased military capability, behaving more like a conventional army than an armed group, and has expanded its control in North Kivu to an area six times larger by the end of 2022 than it held in March 2022.
• There is substantial evidence of support for the M23 by the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF), including the presence of RDF troops in Rutshuru territory and their participation in operations against the FDLR.
• The East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) faces challenges regarding neutrality and efficacy, as troop-contributing countries like Uganda and Burundi have historical roles in the conflict and existential ties to Rwanda.
• The Nairobi Process has seen little tangible progress due to poorly defined objectives and the exclusion of the M23 from early talks.
• The Luanda Process, mediated by Angola, serves as the primary reference for de-escalating tensions, but progress is hindered by a lack of trust and mutual accusations of backtracking between Kinshasa and Kigali.
• President Felix Tshisekedi faces intense domestic pressure and rising anti-Rwandan sentiment, making direct negotiations with the M23 a political risk, especially during an election year.
• South Africa's engagement with Rwanda is complicated by a poor bilateral relationship stemming from sponsored assassinations of exiled opposition leaders on South African soil and Rwanda's military role in Mozambique.
• Current regional interventions are criticized for focusing on symptoms—such as the disarmament of Congolese armed groups—rather than the underlying lack of trust between the DRC, Burundi, Uganda, and Rwanda.

APA

WOLTERS, S. (2023). The M23 Crisis – An Opportunity to Bring Sustainable Peace to the Great Lakes Region? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SAIIA_OP-344_TheM23Crisis.pdf

Chicago

WOLTERS, STEPHANIE. The M23 Crisis – An Opportunity to Bring Sustainable Peace to the Great Lakes Region? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SAIIA_OP-344_TheM23Crisis.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=WOLTERS |first1=STEPHANIE |title=The M23 Crisis – An Opportunity to Bring Sustainable Peace to the Great Lakes Region? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=April 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SAIIA_OP-344_TheM23Crisis.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wolters2023m23, author = {WOLTERS, STEPHANIE}, title = {{The M23 Crisis – An Opportunity to Bring Sustainable Peace to the Great Lakes Region?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SAIIA_OP-344_TheM23Crisis.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }