Democratic Republic of Congo Update: A second round of elections?

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the aftermath of the Democratic Republic of Congo's first democratic elections in 40 years, held on 30 July 2006. It evaluates the security situation across various provinces, the logistical challenges of the vote-counting process, and potential political scenarios and alliances should a second round of presidential voting be required.

• The elections held on 30 July 2006 were generally peaceful and credible, though marred by pre-election violence in Kinshasa and the Ituri area. The only reported violence on Election Day occurred in Mbuji-Mayi (Kasaï province), where supporters of Etienne Tshisekedi of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) caused some polling stations to close on 30 July and reopen on 31 July.
• Voter turnout showed a geographic divide: it was 90% or higher in the east, with significant support for independent candidate Joseph Kabila, while turnout in the west was estimated between 60% and 90%, with a high percentage of votes for Jean-Pierre Bemba of the Mouvement de Liberation du Congo (MLC).
• The vote-counting process is slow and viewed as a risk factor for stability. As of 13 August, the Commission Electorale Indépendante (CEI) had captured and verified only 9.4% of presidential results, with final results expected by 20 August.
• The electoral calendar specifies that if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a second round is scheduled for 29 October, with the new president assuming office on 10 December. If a candidate wins more than 50% in the first round, they assume office on 10 September.
• Security concerns persist in several provinces despite the peaceful election day. In Ituri, the threat comes from over 15,000 demobilised militia members not yet integrated. North Kivu faces threats from General Laurent Nkunda, the Mai-Mai, and the Forces Démocratic de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR). South Kivu is threatened by FDLR rebels and non-integrated elements of the Mai-Mai and the ex-National Congolese Army (RCD). Katanga's stability is threatened by non-integrated Mai-Mai elements, particularly in the 'triangle of death' between Pweto, Manono and Mitwaba.
• Two primary political alliances are identified for a potential second round: the Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP), supporting Joseph Kabila and consisting of 31 political parties and 26 personalities; and the Tout Sauf Kabila (TSK), an envisioned alliance likely led by Jean-Pierre Bemba's RENACO and including various opposition groups such as CODECO, UREC, and the RCD of Azarias Ruberwa.

APA

Boshoff, H., & Yav, J. (2006). Democratic Republic of Congo Update: A second round of elections? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/16-08-06 DRC.PDF

Chicago

Boshoff, Henri, and Joseph Yav. Democratic Republic of Congo Update: A second round of elections? Institute for Security Studies, 2006. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/16-08-06 DRC.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Boshoff |first1=Henri |last2=Yav |first2=Joseph |title=Democratic Republic of Congo Update: A second round of elections? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=16 August 2006 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/16-08-06 DRC.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{boshoff2006democratic, author = {Boshoff, Henri and Yav, Joseph}, title = {{Democratic Republic of Congo Update: A second round of elections?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2006}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/16-08-06 DRC.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }