The Democratic Republic of Congo on the Eve of the Second Round of Elections

The report analyzes the transition of the Democratic Republic of Congo toward a new political dispensation, focusing on the run-off election between Joseph Kabila and Jean-Pierre Bemba. It highlights the fragility of the security situation in Kinshasa and the eastern provinces, the role of international forces like MONUC and EUFOR, and the risks posed by slow military reform and political intolerance. The document details the first-round results, the formation of political alliances, and provides four potential scenarios for the election outcome, emphasizing the need for the demobilization of candidate-specific security forces to prevent violence.

• In the first round of presidential elections, Joseph Kabila won 44.81% of the vote and Jean-Pierre Bemba won 20.03%, necessitating a second round on 29 October 2006 because neither reached the "50% + 1 constitutional requirement".
• The security situation in Kinshasa remains precarious despite a pact to make it a "weaponless city", as both candidates maintain significant armed forces in the capital: Kabila has approximately 6,000 GSSP soldiers and Bemba has about 2,000 MLC soldiers.
• Political alliances have shifted following the first round, with Kabila leading the Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) and Bemba leading the Union of the Nation (UN). Antoine Gizenga, who received 13.06% of the first-round vote, is identified as a "kingmaker" who signed an agreement with the AMP.
• Regional instability persists in the east and south, with threats from non-integrated militia members in Ituri, the presence of General Nkunda's 1,200 soldiers in North Kivu, and attacks by FDLR rebels in South Kivu.
• Military reform is lagging, with approximately 85,000 ex-combatants still requiring demobilization. The process is stalled because the CONADER budget of $200 million has been spent, with new funds not expected until after the election in November 2006.
• The media is viewed as a potential catalyst for violence, with most outlets being non-neutral and aligned either with Kabila or Bemba. The Higher Media Authority (HAM) has previously closed stations for "ethnic-related hate speech".
• International security forces are deployed to maintain stability, with EUFOR R.D. Congo operating 1,100 soldiers in Kinshasa and MONUC maintaining a force level of 1,709 in the city.

APA

Boshoff, H. (2006). The Democratic Republic of Congo on the Eve of the Second Round of Elections. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/DRC26-10-05.PDF

Chicago

Boshoff, Henri. The Democratic Republic of Congo on the Eve of the Second Round of Elections. Institute for Security Studies, 2006. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/DRC26-10-05.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Boshoff |first1=Henri |title=The Democratic Republic of Congo on the Eve of the Second Round of Elections |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=26 October 2006 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/DRC26-10-05.PDF |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{boshoff2006democratic, author = {Boshoff, Henri}, title = {{The Democratic Republic of Congo on the Eve of the Second Round of Elections}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2006}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/DRC26-10-05.PDF}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }