Search Climate Insights Directory

The document examines the debate over South Africa's economic trajectory. While Treasury and business argue that structural reforms in electricity and transport, along with modest growth increases from 0.6% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, signal a recovery, critics argue that growth remains below population growth (1.33%) and is insufficient to address unemployment. The briefing highlights a decline in the investment-to-GDP ratio to approximately 14% and warns that fiscal austerity and contractionary monetary policies may stifle growth. Additionally, it notes that an emerging international crisis involving the war on Iran and rising oil prices threatens the economy with stagflation, potentially exacerbated by a hawkish Reserve Bank and a lack of a major fiscal stimulus package.

The report analyzes the role of renewable energy in shielding Britain from a fossil fuel crisis in March 2026. It finds that new wind and solar capacity reduced gas-fired power generation by 39% compared to 2021, avoiding approximately £7 million in daily gas purchases during the first four weeks of the crisis.

The 2026 Middle East crisis, triggered by conflict in Iran, caused a spike in oil and gas prices and led some Southeast Asian nations to switch from gas to coal for electricity. However, the report argues that coal is not insulated from geopolitical shocks and carries high hidden health and climate costs. Analysis shows that replacing planned gas expansion with solar and storage would save ASEAN USD 4 billion by 2030, whereas replacing it with coal would increase costs. Despite this, ASEAN coal demand is projected to rise by 25% by 2030, driven largely by Indonesia and Vietnam, though Indonesia has committed to phasing out fossil fuels within 10 to 15 years.

Between 2021 and 2024, European banks provided US$41.9 billion to companies developing over 320 new gas power plants globally, with 63% of this funding coming from a small group of French and UK banks. The report links gas reliance to electricity price volatility, air pollution causing premature deaths, and the climate crisis, urging banks to shift funding from gas expansion to renewables.

The report argues that industrial electrification in India is economically viable across all temperature ranges when powered by low-cost solar energy. It finds that switching to electric technologies like heat pumps and thermal batteries can reduce industrial energy use by 22% and cut CO2 emissions by over half. The analysis highlights that solar-powered electrification is already cheaper than petroleum and natural gas across all temperatures and competitive with coal in several bands. To scale this transition, the report recommends streamlining Green Energy Open Access rules, reducing electricity cross-subsidies, and implementing production-linked incentives for clean commodities.

The document details an Iranian-linked information operation, Storm-2035, that deployed four X accounts impersonating Northern Irish residents between August 2024 and February 2026. These accounts used AI-generated content and 'hashtag hijacking' to promote Irish reunification and narratives supportive of the Iranian regime and Palestine. Despite low engagement, the operation demonstrates Ireland's vulnerability to foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI), particularly as it prepares for the EU presidency in 2026.

Carbon Market Watch asserts that CORSIA is a "phantom scheme" due to patchy enforcement and reliance on low-quality offsets. The author highlights that US airlines, including United, Delta, and American Airlines, are unlikely to pay for their emissions under CORSIA, especially under the Trump administration. Consequently, the document urges the EU to expand the EU ETS to all departing EEA flights to generate revenue for transport decarbonisation and ensure airlines are held accountable for their carbon pollution.

The document argues that AI has entered its '1911 Moment,' shifting from experimental curiosity to real-world military and diplomatic application. It defines the spectrum of AI capabilities from Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) to theoretical Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) and details current deployments of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) and AI-driven decision support in conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and elsewhere. The authors contrast the 'normal technology' view of AI with the 'exceptional technology' view, noting that the choice between these frameworks dictates whether policy should focus on governing deployment or controlling the models themselves. Finally, it highlights the use of 'compute diplomacy' and AI chip export controls as modern instruments of economic statecraft.

The report highlights the systemic risks of fossil fuel dependency, noting that three-quarters of the global population live in importing countries that spent $1.7 trillion on imports in 2024. It argues that the current crisis in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, serves as a catalyst for Asia to transition to electric technologies. The document asserts that scaling EVs, solar, wind, and heat pumps could reduce fossil fuel import bills by approximately 70%, with EVs already displacing 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2025.

The CEO of Mighty Earth critiques the continued sale of internal combustion engines and the scaling back of EV investments by US automakers, contrasting this with China's aggressive expansion in EV production, supply chain decarbonization, and market share.

The EU significantly expanded its renewable energy capacity between 2022 and 2025, with solar PV reaching 406 GW and wind reaching 246 GW. This transition reduced the bloc's reliance on imported fossil fuels, saving an estimated EUR 58 billion in coal and gas import costs. While countries like Spain have successfully delinked electricity prices from gas costs, others like Italy remain highly vulnerable due to continued dependence on imported fossil fuels, particularly during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Conflict in the Middle East is disrupting critical energy imports to Bangladesh, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to fuel rationing, power cuts, and industrial shutdowns. ZCA analysis indicates that sustained high prices for oil, gas, and coal could increase Bangladesh's annual fossil fuel import bill by USD 4.8 billion (a 40% increase from 2025 levels), further straining foreign exchange reserves. The document argues that this recurring volatility, echoing the shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war, underscores the urgent need for Bangladesh to pivot toward renewable energy to avoid long-term fiscal distress and energy insecurity.

Vietnam's solar power generation helps the country avoid approximately USD 594 million in fossil fuel import costs during the current energy price surge driven by the Iran war. While Vietnam leads Southeast Asia in solar and wind shares, it continues to prioritize coal and gas in its long-term power planning, increasing its vulnerability to global price shocks.

A conflict in the Middle East involving Israel, the US, and Iran has caused global fossil fuel supply disruptions, leading to a nearly 50% increase in European gas prices in early March 2026. The briefing highlights that the EU's fossil import bill rose by an estimated €2.5 billion in the first ten days of the crisis. It argues that countries with high gas reliance for electricity, such as Italy, are most exposed to price spikes, while those that have decoupled gas from electricity prices, like Spain, are more resilient. The author contends that electricity market reforms or removing carbon costs (EU-ETS) are less effective than investing in renewables and clean flexibility to ensure long-term energy security.

A conflict in the Middle East in March 2026 caused European gas prices to spike by nearly 50%, increasing the EU's fossil import bill by €2.5 billion in ten days. The report highlights that countries with lower gas reliance, such as Spain, are more insulated from electricity price hikes than gas-heavy markets like Italy. It argues against suspending carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, noting that gas volatility has a far greater impact on bills than carbon pricing.

The GCF Accreditation Panel recommends the World Health Organization (WHO) for accreditation under the 'medium' size category and 'medium risk (category B)' environmental and social risk category. The assessment finds that WHO meets basic fiduciary standards, project management standards, and gender policy requirements. While WHO's Environmental and Social Safeguards Framework (ESSF) is considered adequate, the panel noted a gap regarding the lack of an external evaluation of the ESSF, which is set as a condition for accreditation to be resolved within two years of the first funded activity. WHO's track record includes managing large-scale grants, such as a USD 192.92 million project for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and various climate-resilient health projects in the Pacific and Asia.

The Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) asserts that US and Israeli military strikes on Iran are illegal acts of aggression that destabilize the region and cause destruction to both human life and the environment. CIEL argues that these attacks cannot be justified as efforts to promote human rights or democracy, noting that such military actions have already resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths. The organization calls on the international community, including European leaders, to reject the normalization of force and instead prioritize diplomacy, multilateralism, and nuclear restraint to protect the environment and the rule of law.

The Council on Strategic Risks proposes that the US government invest $10 billion annually over 10 years in biodefense, noting that the FY26 request of $4.02 billion is insufficient given threats from Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran. The author suggests that 2% of the proposed $500 billion defense spending increase could fund critical enhancements in wastewater surveillance, medical countermeasure discovery via supercomputing, biomanufacturing, and the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

The briefing examines the US$107 billion in potential investment for LNG terminals and gas pipelines in Southern Asia, specifically India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. While industry forecasts predict strong demand growth, Global Energy Monitor (GEM) finds that these countries have shelved or cancelled 2–3 times as much proposed LNG import capacity as they have brought online over the last decade. The document highlights that LNG remains uncompetitive against falling renewable power costs and that recent geopolitical shocks, such as the March 2026 conflict in Iran affecting the Strait of Hormuz, underscore the energy security risks of LNG dependence. While India continues to promote gas infrastructure, Pakistan has shifted toward domestic power and local gas exploration, and Bangladesh's new government signals a move toward renewables and domestic gas.

The document analyzes how the Iranian regime and its allies used an 'axis of amplification' to frame nationwide protests as foreign-backed riots. It details the roles of state actors, regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and Western far-right and far-left accounts in spreading disinformation, promoting antisemitic tropes, and accusing the US and Israel of orchestrating the unrest to justify state repression.