Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance

This briefing by Ember analyzes the impact of a March 2026 energy shock caused by conflict in the Middle East, which led to spikes in European gas prices and increased fossil import costs. The document highlights how varying levels of reliance on gas for electricity generation across EU member states create disparate levels of exposure to price volatility, arguing that reducing gas dependency is the only effective way to build resilience against such shocks.

• Conflict in the Middle East involving strikes by Israel and the US on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar. These disruptions affected approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and 20% of global LNG production, respectively.
• European gas prices (Dutch TTF) rose by nearly 50%, increasing from €31/MWh pre-conflict to an average of €45/MWh during the first week of the conflict (2–6 March 2026). This price surge increased the cost of gas-fired electricity generation by more than 50% within 10 days.
• The EU's fossil import costs increased by an estimated €2.5 billion in the first ten days of the crisis. This follows a period of extreme volatility where the EU's total fossil import bill rose from €313 billion in 2021 to €693 billion in 2022, before falling to €376 billion in 2024.
• Exposure to electricity price spikes varies by country based on gas reliance. In 2026, gas influenced electricity prices in Italy for 89% of hours, whereas in Spain it influenced only 15% of hours. Consequently, power prices reached yearly highs in March for Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium, while Spain, Portugal, France, and the Nordics were less impacted.
• The document argues against suspending the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) as a solution to high prices, noting that carbon costs constitute at most 10% of the final household electricity bill, which is lower than the 2024 average VAT rate of 18%.

APA

Ember (2026). Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/latest-energy-shock-reminds-europe-of-its-risky-gas-reliance

Chicago

Ember. Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance. 2026. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/latest-energy-shock-reminds-europe-of-its-risky-gas-reliance.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance |date=13 March 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/latest-energy-shock-reminds-europe-of-its-risky-gas-reliance |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2026latest, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/latest-energy-shock-reminds-europe-of-its-risky-gas-reliance}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }