Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance

A conflict in the Middle East in March 2026 caused European gas prices to spike by nearly 50%, increasing the EU's fossil import bill by €2.5 billion in ten days. The report highlights that countries with lower gas reliance, such as Spain, are more insulated from electricity price hikes than gas-heavy markets like Italy. It argues against suspending carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, noting that gas volatility has a far greater impact on bills than carbon pricing.

• The escalation of conflict in the Middle East led to significant global supply disruptions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar, the latter of which produces approximately 20% of global LNG.
• European gas prices (Dutch TTF) rose by nearly 50% in the first week of the conflict, increasing from €31/MWh pre-conflict to an average of €45/MWh between 2 March and 6 March 2026.
• The EU's fossil import costs increased by an estimated €2.5 billion during the first ten days of the crisis compared to pre-conflict price levels.
• Exposure to electricity price increases varies by country based on gas reliance; in 2026, gas influenced electricity prices in 89% of hours in Italy compared to only 15% of hours in Spain.
• The cost of gas-fired power increased by over 50% in ten days, a rise that is twice as large as the cost added by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The carbon cost represents at most 10% of the final EU household electricity bill, which is lower than the average VAT rate of 18%.

APA

Rosslowe, D. C., & Petrovich, D. B. (2026). Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Latest-energy-shock-reminds-Europe-of-its-risky-gas-reliance.pdf

Chicago

Rosslowe, Dr Chris, and Dr Beatrice Petrovich. Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Latest-energy-shock-reminds-Europe-of-its-risky-gas-reliance.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rosslowe |first1=Dr Chris |last2=Petrovich |first2=Dr Beatrice |title=Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance |publisher=Ember |date=13 March 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Latest-energy-shock-reminds-Europe-of-its-risky-gas-reliance.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rosslowe2026latest, author = {Rosslowe, Dr Chris and Petrovich, Dr Beatrice}, title = {{Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Latest-energy-shock-reminds-Europe-of-its-risky-gas-reliance.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }