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The study compared CFSR climate data against conventional weather data using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow in the Lake Tana basin. While conventional data performed better overall, CFSR data is identified as a valuable alternative for hydrological predictions in remote, data-scarce areas where gauges are unavailable.

The document identifies significant barriers to integrating climate science into African policy-making, including systematic biases in climate models, a decline in observational data networks, and a lack of technical capacity to interpret data. It emphasizes that current climate information is often too coarse in resolution for local decision-making and is poorly communicated to policy-makers. To address these gaps, the authors recommend promoting African-led science, improving the translation of research into non-technical formats, and engaging influential finance and development ministries rather than relying solely on environment ministries.

The report argues that there is no single blueprint for a green economy, but rather multiple pathways driven by local communities. It critiques 'green growth' for focusing on GDP and resource efficiency while often ignoring social justice, structural power asymmetries, and the needs of the poor. The document emphasizes the need to connect international financial and policy mechanisms with ground-level realities, suggesting that developing countries can 'leapfrog' industrialised pathways by investing in low-carbon infrastructure. Key recommendations include 'greening' existing financial flows like Official Development Assistance (ODA), integrating social justice goals from the outset of policy design, and diversifying political narratives to include indigenous and non-Western knowledge.

The analysis reveals a significant increase in trade between Ethiopia and BRICS, particularly with China and India, though the relationship remains characterized by a 'North-South' pattern. Ethiopia primarily exports primary products and crude materials while importing manufactured goods and machinery. While there are signs of diversification in the leather industry, the paper argues that Ethiopia must prioritize commodity-based transformation and value chain development to maximize the benefits of its trade with BRICS.

A coalition of social movements and NGOs argues that the FAO's current forest definition is reductionist and primarily benefits industrial timber, pulp, paper, and rubber companies. The authors contend that by defining forests simply as land with a certain percentage of tree cover, the FAO erroneously classifies large-scale monoculture plantations as 'reforestation' and ignores the structural and cultural importance of forests to the 300 million people who depend on them for their livelihoods. The letter calls for a new, community-led definition process that recognizes the role of forests in food sovereignty and biological diversity.

The report establishes a framework for evaluating the financial viability of power sectors through four key criteria: cost recovery, ability to meet demand, investment capacity, and adherence to social and environmental norms. It details specific metrics such as Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), system losses, and the 'price-gap approach' for measuring subsidies. The analysis highlights global variances, noting that 82% of 87 analyzed countries provided electricity subsidies in 2011 and that power outages cause significant economic losses, averaging 19% of annual sales for affected firms. The framework also emphasizes the tension between achieving full cost recovery and maintaining affordability for low-income households, particularly in African nations.

The document outlines a qualitative participatory scenario development (PSD) approach used to help stakeholders in developing countries anticipate climate change consequences and identify robust adaptation pathways. By combining backcasting—working backward from a desired future—with the introduction of climate and socioeconomic boundary conditions, the process identifies integrated 'hard' (infrastructure) and 'soft' (governance and training) adaptation measures. Key findings emphasize that place-based discussions bridge the gap between abstract global climate models and local policy needs, and that adaptation must be integrated with broader socioeconomic development to be credible and pro-poor. The authors highlight challenges including the cognitive difficulty of imagining long-term futures and the necessity of local collaboration to ensure ownership and relevance.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies presents three plausible scenarios for South Africa's economic and political trajectory up to 2030: 'Bafana Bafana' (continued underachievement), 'Mandela Magic' (high growth and vision), and 'Nation Divided' (political instability and populist decline). Using the International Futures forecasting system, the author analyzes how leadership choices, particularly within the African National Congress (ANC) and its alliance with COSATU, will impact GDP, employment, and social stability.

The paper analyzes the funding of African governance institutions, such as anti-corruption commissions and the APRM, and processes like constitutional reform and the EITI. It argues that while government funding is ideal for ensuring national ownership, a mix of donor and state funds is common. The author highlights that funding can be used as a reward for good governance (e.g., US Millennium Challenge Account) or as a tool for donor control (e.g., EU funding of PEFA). The document concludes that mitigating external influence requires a combination of self-assessment processes, adherence to continental or global standards, and the mainstreaming of governance actions into national budgets.

The document evaluates the transition from the OAU to the AU, noting that while the AU has improved peace and security through supranational norms, it struggles to implement democratic governance reforms. It highlights a disconnect between Africa's recent economic growth and the persistence of poverty and unaccountable leadership. The authors argue that the AU must operationalise the African Governance Architecture and strengthen the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to ensure that economic gains are sustainable and that the vision of 'Agenda 2063' is realised.

The paper examines the tension between 'positive' and 'negative' governance values in Africa. While the African Union has established comprehensive frameworks like the APRM and ACDEG to promote transparency, accountability, and human rights, the author argues that a lack of political will and moral leadership hinders their implementation. The document highlights persistent issues such as systemic corruption, political clientelism, the marginalisation of women, and electoral manipulation, while noting that a small group of countries has made significant progress toward democratic governance.

The document outlines that Africa is experiencing significant warming and increased extreme weather, which threatens food security, health, and economic growth. It argues that while Africa has contributed little to historic emissions, it is highly vulnerable and must integrate adaptation and mitigation into long-term development planning. Key opportunities for the region include adopting decentralized renewable energy, implementing conservation agriculture, and planning low-carbon urban growth to avoid fossil fuel lock-in.

The document outlines the observed and projected climate impacts in Africa, emphasizing that warming is already occurring and will likely accelerate. It argues that while global mitigation is essential to avoid catastrophic outcomes, immediate investment in adaptation is critical to protect food security, health, and economic growth. The report highlights opportunities for Africa to adopt low-carbon development pathways and calls for international cooperation and financial support to build resilience.

The document posits a correlation between domestic climate laws and international ambition, suggesting that national legislation provides the confidence and evidence needed for negotiators to defend ambitious global commitments. It identifies several factors influencing a country's negotiation position, including economic competitiveness, national interest, and leadership goals, while noting that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) serves as the primary system for these negotiations.

The document examines the potential for low-carbon technologies to address energy poverty in Africa, highlighting that while grid expansion is suitable for urban areas and some rural zones, off-grid and mini-grid renewables are increasingly viable for remote regions. It identifies significant barriers to adoption, including high upfront capital costs, lack of local technical capacity, and the political influence of fossil fuel reserves. Using Morocco's rural electrification programme as a success story, the briefing argues that low-carbon options must be integrated into broader development objectives—such as job creation for youth, health improvements from reduced air pollution, and national energy self-sufficiency—to become politically and economically competitive.

The workshop concluded that low-carbon options have not yet fundamentally changed the barriers to energy access in Africa, such as high supply costs and weak financing. Participants argued that energy access must be framed as a tool for inclusive development rather than just a grid connection, and that national governments must lead the transition by creating enabling environments and sustainable business models. While the emissions impact of basic energy access is considered negligible, there is a call for stronger evidence linking low-carbon pathways to job creation to convince policymakers.

The document examines the food-energy-water nexus in Ethiopia's Lake Tana and Beles River basins, using the SEI nexus toolkit (WEAP-LEAP) to model three development scenarios. It finds that agricultural intensification and energy transitions are interdependent and potentially competitive, noting that Ethiopia has reached a "biomass ceiling" where demand for fuel, food, and fodder equals primary productivity. The analysis highlights trade-offs between hydropower production and maintaining critical water levels in Lake Tana, suggesting that a coordinated nexus approach is essential to meet the targets of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) and the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) without compromising environmental sustainability.

The document outlines SEI's approach to climate adaptation, emphasizing that vulnerability is driven more by socioeconomic conditions than by climate exposure. It argues that adaptation and development are inextricably linked and that adaptation has inherent limits, meaning it cannot replace mitigation. The briefing also details SEI's global initiatives, such as the weADAPT platform and the Asia Adaptation Knowledge Platform, and identifies future research priorities including the role of gender, culture, and the private sector in adaptation.

The document proposes a 'nexus approach' to move away from sectoral 'silos' in the development of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By focusing on the interdependencies between water, energy, and food, the authors suggest that a bottom-up process starting with concrete targets—rather than overarching goals—can better identify trade-offs and synergies. The brief illustrates this through three analytical approaches: screening for interactions, exploring the nature of those interactions (interdependencies, constraints, and reinforcements), and mapping 'nexus targets' that serve multiple sectors. Case studies from Ethiopia, China (Ningxia), and the United States (California) demonstrate how these cross-sectoral tensions manifest in real-world resource management.

The document outlines SEI's interdisciplinary approach to the water-energy-food nexus, emphasizing the need to integrate cross-sectoral interactions, ecosystem services, and multi-scale governance. It highlights the use of analytical tools like WEAP and LEAP to identify synergies and trade-offs in resource management. SEI advocates for participatory processes and the identification of policy 'entry points' to ensure scientific research translates into practical, sustainable solutions for resource scarcity.