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The document argues that COVID-19 lockdowns have provided a cover for governments and private entities to suppress environmental and land defenders through harassment, arrests, and the enactment of restrictive laws. It highlights specific instances of repression in the DRC, Uganda, and South Africa, noting that the suspension of normal administrative and judicial functions has limited access to justice and transparency. To counter these threats, the guide recommends that defenders shift toward online engagement, creative protest methods, and encrypted communication, while leveraging regional movements and emergency funds like the African Environmental Defenders’ Fund.

The document identifies a significant untapped market of approximately 5 million refugees and IDPs in the Great Lakes region, specifically focusing on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Research indicates that while these populations have substantial aggregate spending power—with IDPs alone estimated to spend over $1 billion annually on household expenses—they lack access to formal financial products. The briefing highlights opportunities for businesses to provide micro-loans, affordable electricity, improved money transfer services, and more effective utility payment systems, noting that high rates of mobile phone ownership and the possession of formal identification cards facilitate these interventions.

The document examines how COVID-19 disrupted African extractive industries through reduced global demand, supply chain failures, and operational shutdowns. It highlights the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies like Nigeria and the specific challenges facing South Africa's mining sector. Conversely, it identifies a 'silver lining' in the increased demand for gold due to its role in rapid antibody tests. The report argues that the crisis provides a governance opportunity for African nations to diversify their economies, reduce reliance on Chinese demand, and implement structural reforms to protect property rights and broaden tax bases.

The report analyzes the 2020 Burundian elections, highlighting a transition from President Pierre Nkurunziza to Evariste Ndayishimiye within the CNDD-FDD. It describes a political environment marked by an "autocratic drift," systemic repression of opposition parties like the CNL, and a fragile economy where 65% of the population lives below the poverty line. The author argues that the new president faces a "double guardianship" from Nkurunziza and a circle of powerful generals, which may hinder necessary democratic and socio-economic reforms.

Between 1989 and 2019, Africa experienced a complex conflict landscape. While battle-related deaths have remained relatively low and stable since the early 2000s, the number of state-based conflicts reached a record high in 2019. There is a concerning increase in the involvement of the Islamic State and a rise in non-state communal conflicts. UN peacekeeping operations in the region saw a significant increase in troop size from 1999 to 2010.

The document argues that standard lockdown measures are often impractical and potentially more damaging than COVID-19 in Africa due to high poverty levels, weak democratic institutions, and a large informal economy. It highlights risks such as the erosion of democratic processes, food insecurity, and a disproportionate burden on women. The author advocates for localized, flexible responses and calls for wealthier Northern states to provide debt cancellations and aid to prevent regional instability.

The African Union (AU) and Africa CDC reacted quickly to COVID-19, coordinating health responses and establishing an anti-COVID-19 fund. However, the pandemic has exacerbated security threats in West and Central Africa, where fighting against terrorism and internal conflicts continues despite global ceasefire calls. In the Horn of Africa, the virus has disrupted peace processes and created new instabilities, including the politicisation of response measures and the release of thousands of inmates. The report also highlights the extreme vulnerability of Africa's 25.2 million refugees and internally displaced persons, warning that border closures may increase irregular migration and transmission risks.

President João Lourenço has made progress in opening political space and fighting corruption since taking office in 2017, but these gains are offset by a severe economic crisis and the politicisation of the military. While the anti-corruption drive has targeted the former Dos Santos elite, it is accused of lacking transparency and being used for political punishment. Angola faces a deepening recession, with oil production declining and public debt reaching 90% of GDP, leading to austerity measures that increase social tension and poverty. The report highlights risks including potential social convulsion in urban centres, low morale in the armed forces, and ongoing factionalism within the ruling MPLA party.

The analysis finds that while FDI in the SADC region is heavily driven by natural resource endowments and GDP, secondary activities (manufacturing and construction) are the primary drivers of job creation and inclusive growth. The paper highlights a mismatch between export potential and FDI in sectors like aquaculture and meat, while identifying strong growth opportunities in agro-processing and a potential revival in textiles driven by sustainable sourcing. It concludes that while services are growing, they provide significantly fewer jobs than industrial activities, validating the SISR's focus on industrialisation.

The document argues that off-grid solar (OGS) is a critical tool for achieving universal energy access and climate mitigation, particularly by replacing kerosene lamps and reducing black carbon emissions. Despite this, multilateral climate finance institutions have invested only a small fraction of the total capital deployed in the sector. The briefing identifies barriers such as the complexity of projects that combine mitigation, adaptation, and development, as well as a focus on large-scale projects. It recommends strategies including increased concessional financing for early-stage businesses, expanded use of blended finance to attract commercial equity, and the development of a uniform methodology to quantify the climate benefits of OGS, specifically regarding black carbon.

The document analyzes the drivers of zoonotic disease emergence, emphasizing the role of human-animal-environment interfaces. It identifies land-use change, agricultural intensification, and wildlife trade as primary direct drivers that increase human exposure to pathogens. The brief proposes a systems approach to identify leverage points for intervention, such as regulating high-risk wildlife taxa in markets and re-engineering food supply chains, while warning against rushed interventions that could undermine food security or drive illegal trade. It also examines the role of climate change in expanding the range of endemic diseases and explores future scenarios for human health and conservation.

The document examines how COVID-19 exposes weaknesses in global institutions and threatens Africa through economic shocks, reduced development aid, and a retreat from multilateralism. It highlights the risk of increased trade protectionism and the potential for climate goals to be sidelined. The author advocates for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the creation of a continental climate finance fund, and a proactive African role in reforming global governance to mitigate these risks.

The document argues that formal land titles are often used as a proxy for tenure security but frequently fail to provide women with actual control over land due to discriminatory laws, customary norms, and lack of access to resources. It highlights that individual titling can conflict with indigenous collective tenure systems and may even lead to dispossession. To achieve genuine security, the author recommends gender-equitable normative frameworks, the inclusion of women in land governance, and ancillary support such as technical training and credit access.

The report identifies that financial service providers (FSPs) prioritize economic factors—specifically governance and business management—over environmental and social themes when assessing financial risk for agricultural investments. Key priorities include management experience, existing buyer relationships, land tenure, and projected cash flows. While climate change is the most important non-economic theme, with a preference for adaptation measures, social and biodiversity issues are often viewed as having more impact on sustainability than on financial risk reduction. The document recommends that agricultural producers seek capacity-building in business management and that voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) integrate more economic criteria to help producers become more bankable.

The report analyzes Angola's vulnerability to oil market volatility and its low human development outcomes. It argues that while GDP is projected to grow, absolute poverty will increase due to rapid population growth unless the government prioritizes human development. The authors evaluate five sectoral scenarios, concluding that investing in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure provides the most significant economic and health benefits, while prioritizing education and reproductive healthcare for women is the fastest way to boost incomes and reduce maternal mortality.

The PRIO Conflict Recurrence Database reveals that approximately half of all conflict episodes between 1989 and 2018 recurred, often driven by the same or overlapping grievances. The analysis indicates that while actors may change—with new groups emerging or alliances forming—the underlying issues frequently persist, suggesting that peacebuilding efforts often fail to address the root causes of violence. The data shows a high frequency of rapid recurrence, with 90% of recurring conflicts returning within eight years.

The document analyzes how trade facilitation efforts in East Africa affect women informal cross-border traders, who constitute up to 70% of such trade in Africa. Using the Busia One-Stop Border Post (OSBP) as a case study, it evaluates the effectiveness of 'hard' infrastructure (like border facilities) and 'soft' infrastructure (like Simplified Trade Regimes and capacity building). While the Busia OSBP has reduced customs processing times by 80% and improved relations between traders and officials, significant gaps remain, including inadequate sanitation on the Ugandan side, limited access to formal finance, and the persistence of predatory middlemen. The paper recommends gender-sensitive infrastructure, simplified cross-border banking, and the use of the African Continental Free Trade Area to create continent-wide framework STRs.

The document argues that healthy ecosystems, such as mangroves and wetlands, act as critical buffers that reduce the physical exposure of African coastal cities to natural hazards. It promotes the adoption of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) as cost-effective, nature-based solutions. While international frameworks like the Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement provide support, the author notes that regional policies in Africa linking biodiversity conservation to disaster risk reduction are virtually non-existent. The brief identifies significant barriers to implementation, including weak governance, fragmented sectoral approaches, and a lack of funding for capacity development, recommending a holistic, multi-sectoral integration of nature-based solutions into national development strategies.

The document examines South Africa's strategic positioning in global nuclear security amidst domestic economic decline and budget cuts to its foreign affairs and defence sectors. It highlights the risks posed by nuclear tensions in Iran and the Korean Peninsula, and suggests that South Africa can maintain its global relevance through 'niche diplomacy' and strategic partnerships. The author recommends using the 2020 NPT Review Conference and AU chairmanship to build a unified African position on nuclear disarmament and exploring informal 'Friends of the Chair' diplomatic models to bypass political impasses.

The document examines the global issue of CITES document abuse, where permits and certificates are falsified or obtained corruptly to legalize the trade of endangered species. It identifies key methods of abuse, such as counterfeiting and mis-declaration, and highlights the role of corrupt officials as gatekeepers. To mitigate these risks, the brief recommends a combination of prosecuting corrupt officials, implementing e-permitting systems (eCITES), enhancing technical capacity for inspectors, and improving the security of paper documents.