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This report analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), integrating 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast GDP per capita, poverty levels, and carbon emissions by 2043. It highlights the synergistic effects of multi-sectoral reform, projecting significant economic growth and poverty reduction, while noting an inevitable increase in carbon emissions.

This research paper provides a comprehensive geographic, political, and socio-economic introduction to Africa, detailing its physical landscape, colonial history, administrative structures, and immense cultural and linguistic diversity.

The report explores how Africa can 'leapfrog' traditional development stages by adopting decentralised renewable energy, mobile-first digital infrastructure, and AI. It highlights the success of mobile money (e.g., M-Pesa) and the potential for solar mini-grids to close the energy gap. A projected 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario suggests that by 2050, such strategic investments could increase GDP per capita by US$510, reduce extreme poverty by 63 million people, and expand the overall economy by nearly US$1 trillion compared to current trends.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the energy access gap in Africa and the potential for 'leapfrogging' traditional fossil-fuel grids in favor of decentralized renewable energy systems, specifically solar-based mini-grids and off-grid solutions.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines how corruption, political interference, and governance failures have hindered large-scale energy infrastructure projects in South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo, specifically focusing on coal power stations and hydropower schemes.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the role of mobile technology and broadband in Africa's technological leapfrogging. It details the shift from fixed-line to mobile networks, the impact of mobile broadband on poverty reduction, and the emergence of satellite internet solutions to bridge connectivity gaps in remote areas.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the economic and social impacts of a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario for Africa through 2050, comparing it against a 'Current Path' baseline.

The document defines employment according to ILO standards and examines the 'working poor'—employed individuals living in extreme poverty. It highlights that in 2024, 6.9% of the global employed population lived on less than US$2.15 per day, with Africa experiencing higher rates. Specifically, 29.3% of Africa's employed population were working poor, with rates exceeding 70% in Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the historical structural challenges of African agriculture and models an 'Agriculture scenario' to demonstrate how a transition toward high-productivity, technology-driven farming could reduce food insecurity and poverty by 2043.

This report analyzes the projected impacts of a specific 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it against a 'Current Path' forecast. The scenario envisions a significant increase in agricultural production, reduced food import dependence, and substantial poverty reduction, though it notes that these gains depend on technological adoption and climate factors.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the stagnation of African agricultural productivity since independence, highlighting the roles of poor policy, land tenure issues, conflict, and climate change in maintaining a significant yield gap compared to the rest of the world.

This research paper presents an 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa, modeling the potential impact of an agricultural revolution through eight specific interventions using the IFs forecasting platform. The scenario aims to address low productivity, climate vulnerability, and food insecurity to stimulate rural economic transformation and diversification.

This research paper examines the potential for triangular cooperation between the European Union (EU), Indonesia, and African nations in the critical raw materials (CRM) sector. It argues that while the EU and Indonesia currently employ different partnership models in Africa—the EU focusing on supply chain integration and ESG standards, and Indonesia focusing on downstream industrialisation and South-South cooperation—these differences are complementary. The authors propose a framework where EU financial instruments and ESG expertise combine with Indonesia's technical experience in mineral processing to support African goals of local value addition and industrialisation, thereby reducing all parties' dependence on China.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of various global carbon tax scenarios on Africa's energy transition and economic future, specifically highlighting the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario.

This report by Ember and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) argues that falling costs for 'electrotech'—solar, batteries, and electric end-use technologies—provide a faster and cheaper path to energy access and economic development for emerging markets than traditional fossil-fuel-based models. It highlights how many CVF nations are already leapfrogging developed economies in solar penetration and electrification, reducing their dependence on expensive fossil fuel imports.

This research paper analyzes the implications of Rwanda's threat to withdraw its security forces from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province. It argues that the deployment serves Rwanda's political and economic interests while highlighting Mozambique's inability to independently secure its territory and the transactional nature of EU and US energy-driven security strategies.

The April 2026 Peace & Security Council Report examines key African Union (AU) initiatives, including a UN resolution on slavery reparations, the integration of governance intelligence into security actions via the APRM-PSC interface, the precarious stability of South Sudan ahead of 2026 elections, and a review of Angola's tenure as AU chair.

This report evaluates the state of industrialisation in Africa, analyzing the causes of stagnation and premature deindustrialisation while modeling a 'Manufacturing scenario' to forecast the potential economic benefits of scaled-up investment in the sector by 2043.

This research paper examines how climate change exacerbates gender inequalities in Africa, detailing how women's social roles and limited resource access increase their vulnerability across six key impact areas, including health, food security, and gender-based violence.

This introduction to the Africa Manufacturing Forecast examines the continent's struggle with industrialisation, noting a stagnation in manufacturing value added and a decline in global market share. It outlines current strategic efforts to reverse this trend through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the adoption of green and digital technologies, and the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to move Africa up the global value chain.