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The report explores how a differentiated global carbon tax—where rates are based on a country's income classification—could reduce fossil fuel emissions and foster economic growth in Africa. Under the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, the African economy is projected to be 58% larger by 2050 than the 'Current Path', with significant reductions in extreme poverty and near-total electricity access, despite a larger economy. The document also highlights Africa's potential as a carbon sink through reforestation and land management to attract investment and carbon credits.

The document analyzes a hypothetical 'Demographics and Health scenario' for Africa, projecting that aggressive improvements in health and WaSH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) infrastructure would lead to a healthier, wealthier population by 2043. Key projections include a significant increase in safely managed sanitation and water access, a reduction in infant mortality and fertility rates, and a decrease in the disease burden. Economically, the scenario suggests that these health improvements would boost GDP per capita, particularly in low-income countries, and reduce the number of extremely poor Africans by 41 million compared to the current path, despite a smaller overall population.

The report details a strategic scenario for Africa to improve health and demographic outcomes by 2050. Key interventions include increasing modern contraceptive use to 75% in sub-Saharan Africa and 85% in North Africa, reducing mortality for the top five disease types by 20 percentage points, and expanding safely managed water and sanitation access. The scenario also targets a 20% reduction in under-five stunting in 39 countries. These improvements require an additional US$18.9 billion in health spending continentwide, with infrastructure spending peaking at US$4.7 billion per annum in 2037. The model is based on empirical benchmarks from countries like Ethiopia, Malawi, Ghana, and Kenya, and mirrors historical progress in South America and South Asia.

The report finds that while the percentage of Africans living in extreme poverty has declined since the 1990s, the absolute number of poor people continues to rise due to rapid population growth. Africa is projected to miss the 2030 SDG goal of eliminating extreme poverty, with several countries likely to maintain poverty rates above 50% by that date. The document attributes these challenges to high inequality, over-reliance on natural resources, and bad governance, noting that Sub-Saharan Africa carries the largest global burden of extreme poverty.

The Manufacturing scenario projects a structural economic transformation for Africa by 2043, increasing the manufacturing sector's GDP share to 18.1% and adding US$282.8 billion to the continent's total GDP. This shift is expected to generate 34.6 million additional jobs, primarily unskilled roles in agro-processing and services, while increasing government revenue by US$81.6 billion. The scenario forecasts a reduction in extreme poverty, lifting 19.11 million more people out of poverty by 2043 than the Current Path, and predicts a long-term decrease in income inequality through the expansion of the middle class.

Since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, Russia has restructured its African security engagements, moving from the high-profile combat deployments of the Wagner Group to a more centralised model controlled by the Kremlin and the GRU. This new approach prioritises 'regime survival' services, including elite protection, training, and intelligence sharing, while expanding covert information warfare through entities like Russia House and the African Initiative. Despite these efforts, Russia's footprint is constrained by the resource demands of its war in Ukraine and risks of 'blowback' from African governments due to human rights abuses and deceptive recruitment schemes like 'Alabuga Start'.

The report details the disproportionate risks faced by women environmental and human rights defenders (WEHRDs) in Africa, including gender-based violence, criminalization, and digital surveillance. It highlights a significant gap between the actual violence experienced and official data, which often underreports attacks against women. Through country spotlights on Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria, the document illustrates how patriarchal norms and corporate-state collusion exacerbate the vulnerability of WEHRDs. It concludes with recommendations for African states and international donors to implement gender-responsive protection frameworks, end the criminalization of activism, and provide flexible, long-term funding for women-led grassroots initiatives.

The report argues that the African Union Commission's reform, which reduced commissioners from eight to six, has led to institutional imbalances where crisis response overshadows conflict prevention. It highlights a significant funding gap for the new structure, costing an additional US$53 million. The document also analyzes the rise of military coups, attributing them to 'democratic subversions' such as the removal of term limits, and discusses the strain on Africa's humanitarian system due to conflict and climate shocks.

The report examines how Egypt, South Sudan, and Chad manage the influx of Sudanese refugees, highlighting a systemic gap between international legal commitments and the lived realities of displaced persons. It identifies specific failures in each country—Egypt's security-heavy approach, South Sudan's operational fragility, and Chad's institutional weakness—and recommends regional coordination through the AU and IGAD to establish a predictable protection framework.

The report finds that while 98% of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) mention education, there is a significant gap in systemic integration. Only 40% include the education sector in impact and vulnerability assessments, and only 11% consulted Ministries of Education during the design process. While curriculum changes are common priorities (71%), school infrastructure (34%) and educational continuity (26%) are frequently overlooked. Furthermore, only 27% of NAPs provide cost estimates for education-related adaptation measures, hindering the transition from planning to implementation.

The report finds that while 98% of analyzed National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) mention education, there is a significant gap in substantive integration. Only 40% include the education sector in risk and vulnerability assessments, and only 27% provide cost estimates for education-related measures. The analysis highlights a lack of systemic involvement from education ministries during the design phase, with only 11% being consulted, despite the sector's critical role in building community resilience and protecting millions of students from climate-driven disruptions.

The report finds that while 98% of analyzed NAPs reference education, there is a significant gap in systemic integration. Only 40% include the education sector in impact, risk, and vulnerability assessments, and only 16% address all three components of a climate-resilient education system: curriculum change, resilient infrastructure, and educational continuity. While 84% of NAPs include education-related priorities, only 27% provide cost estimates for these actions. Institutional gaps are prominent, with only 11% of NAPs showing evidence that education ministries were consulted during the design process. The report also notes that while 94% of NAPs mention children and youth, only 23% reference their rights.

The document argues that Africa's critical raw materials (CRMs) have triggered a resurgence of transactional deals where external powers provide security or infrastructure in exchange for resource access. It contrasts Russia's use of private military companies, the US's transactional 'peace-brokering' model, and China's 'infrastructure-for-resources' strategy, noting that these arrangements often prioritize foreign strategic gains over African long-term stability and sovereignty.

The document examines the evolution of National Youth Policies (NYPs) in Africa, noting a steep increase in adoption that peaked in 2020. While these policies frequently address education, employment, and health, they often neglect youth political participation and face significant implementation gaps. Adoption is driven more by political and institutional factors, such as democracy and administrative capacity, than by demographic needs.

Deforestation in the Congo Basin risks reducing regional rainfall by up to 40%, which could lead to cumulative cocoa yield losses of 3.06 million tonnes across nine African countries by 2050. This supply shock is projected to drive cocoa prices to USD 68.1 per kilogram by 2050, with deforestation accounting for 40.2% of that price. EU importers could face cumulative additional costs of USD 256 billion by 2050. The report argues that investing in forest conservation, particularly community-led restoration, is more cost-effective than inaction, offering avoided costs of USD 1.8 to USD 6 for every dollar invested.

The document analyzes the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI) and Gabon's 2023 debt-for-nature swap as models for mobilizing climate finance in Africa. CAFI, a multi-donor effort focused on REDD+, has achieved emission reductions in the DRC and Gabon but faces challenges regarding national ownership and a lack of explicit adaptation targets. Gabon's blue bond swap reduced sovereign debt by $125 million to fund marine conservation, demonstrating the potential of capital markets for conservation, though it is criticized for high transaction costs and limited transparency. The author recommends integrating adaptation objectives into CAFI, expanding the use of blended finance, and standardizing oversight for debt-for-nature swaps to prevent 'bluewashing'.

The strategy aims to make climate adaptation options visible and foster societal ownership of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) in the Central African Republic by 2030. It identifies nine target groups, including the public sector, private sector, and indigenous peoples, and outlines four strategic axes: political and financial appropriation, public awareness of best practices, information sharing among stakeholders, and coordination/monitoring. The plan includes a wide array of activities such as community radio broadcasts, mobile applications, and educational outreach, with an indicative budget of 479,225,000 FCFA. Implementation is led by the National Climate Coordination (CNC) under the supervision of a steering committee.

The report finds that human-caused climate change significantly increased the frequency and intensity of extreme heat globally from May 2024 to May 2025. Approximately 4 billion people experienced at least 30 additional days of extreme heat, and 195 countries saw the number of such days at least double compared to a world without climate change. All 67 significant heat events analyzed were influenced by climate change, with some becoming dozens of times more likely. The authors emphasize that while adaptation strategies like City Heat Action Plans are vital, comprehensive mitigation through the phasing out of fossil fuels is the only way to limit future harms.

The paper analyzes the civil war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), arguing that the conflict has become a proxy war for Middle Eastern powers. It details how external military support from countries like the UAE, Egypt, and Iran sustains the fighting and how a proliferation of uncoordinated, ad hoc mediation initiatives—often led by these same regional actors—has marginalized civilian political actors and hindered a comprehensive peace agreement.

The report argues that low-income countries face a systemic balance of payments crisis rather than a simple liquidity or solvency problem, driven by a rise in expensive, short-maturity non-guaranteed private debt and reversed capital flows. It proposes the Debt for Resilience (D4R) initiative, which would provide a standardized 50% reduction in the net present value (NPV) of official bilateral and multilateral debt for IDA-eligible countries. Participation would be contingent on an active IMF program and the development of nationally determined growth plans supported by the United Nations and World Bank to avoid austerity. The report also evaluates existing proposals like the Bridge Initiative and the Debt Relief for a Green and Inclusive Recovery (DRGR), arguing they rely on a flawed binary between liquidity and solvency and fail to account for the heterogeneity of countries' credit compositions.