Search Climate Insights Directory

The brief argues that Southern Africa can leverage geopolitical instability in the Middle East by establishing a 'Cape Corridor Assurance Framework'. This framework would integrate regional maritime coordination and national Vessel Traffic Services to provide risk bulletins and performance KPIs for insurers. Key recommendations include a 'Clean-Corridor Compliance Code' to deter shadow-fleet activity, protecting subsea cable infrastructure, and enhancing green-fuel bunkering at specific ports to ensure the route is visible, managed, and insurable.

The paper proposes a six-step intersectional framework for climate risk assessments (CRAs) to move beyond general geographic or sectoral analysis. It emphasizes identifying 'intersecting systems of inequity'—such as racism, ableism, and patriarchy—to understand why specific groups face disproportionate or unique climate impacts. The framework is currently being tested through action research in Nepal and South Africa.

The document explains that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural cycle of water temperature in the equatorial Pacific that drives global temperature and precipitation trends. It warns that a strong El Niño is likely by mid-summer 2026, which may boost global temperatures already elevated by human-caused climate change. The guide advises reporters to avoid storm-related terminology, consult local experts to understand regional 'teleconnections', and recognize that climate change is making ENSO swings more pronounced while ENSO simultaneously amplifies climate impacts like flooding and drought.

The report argues that public development banks (PDBs)—including national, regional, and multilateral institutions—are uniquely positioned to overcome structural and market barriers to climate risk insurance in EMDEs. It identifies key barriers such as data gaps, underdeveloped local capital bases, and fragmented regulatory frameworks. The document proposes a tiered approach where National Development Banks (NDBs) focus on local market development and project pipelines, Regional Development Banks (RDBs) coordinate risk pooling and shared data infrastructure, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) provide catalytic capital and credit enhancement. Key recommendations include the use of targeted premium subsidies with sunset clauses, the bundling of insurance with loans, and the creation of regulatory sandboxes to foster innovation in parametric insurance.

The document outlines a framework for a voluntary circular textile initiative in South Africa, facilitated by GreenCape. It argues that shifting from a 'take-make-waste' model to a circular economy will reduce import dependency, create local jobs, and mitigate environmental degradation. The proposed initiative follows a four-phase roadmap (2025–2032) moving from a 'coalition of the willing' to the eventual development of informed mandatory Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) regulations. Key focus areas include data collection, circular design, and supply chain decarbonisation, with a governance structure comprising core members (producers), supporting members, and an advisory committee.

The Public Affairs Research Institute (PARI) argues that South Africa's Public Procurement Act (2024), specifically sections 30 and 31, provides a statutory mandate for civil society to monitor procurement. To translate this into practice, PARI proposes piloting civic observers for high-risk contracts, expanding community-led social audits for local service delivery, and adopting the Open Contracting Data Standard (OCDS) for machine-readable transparency. The paper emphasizes that these measures shift oversight from retrospective audits to real-time risk mitigation and suggests that National Treasury can begin implementation using existing powers under the PFMA and MFMA even while the new Act is challenged in court.

The Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) assessment of the SUNCASA project in Johannesburg's Jukskei River catchment finds that nature-based solutions—including riparian restoration, invasive species removal, and urban tree planting—provide significant net benefits. Over 25 years, these interventions are projected to generate USD 8.6 million in net benefits, with a return of USD 3.06 for every USD 1 invested and a cost recovery period of 7 years. The most significant economic return stems from improved water quality, which is expected to save USD 3.7 million in avoided health costs over 25 years.

Natural Justice, The Green Connection, and the Aukotowa Primary Fishing Cooperative are challenging an Environmental Authorisation granted in 2023 to TotalEnergies EP South Africa S.A.S for ultra deep water exploration drilling in the Deep Water Orange Basin, approximately 200 km off South Africa's west coast. The organisations are asking the Western Cape High Court to set aside the authorisation and the dismissal of internal appeals, with hearings scheduled for 23 and 24 March 2026 in Cape Town.

The report identifies a significant gap in climate finance reaching South African local governments, noting that less than 10% of international public climate finance flows directly to them. Municipalities face technical capacity limitations, low creditworthiness, and rigid donor requirements, which prevent them from leveraging private debt or concessional loans. While frameworks like the Climate Change Act (2024) and the National Green Finance Taxonomy (2022) provide a basis for engagement, the report argues that a lack of bankable projects and misalignment between national policies and local capabilities stall progress. It recommends structured capacity-building, improved tracking of climate finance flows, and the development of cost-reflective tariff structures to improve municipal creditworthiness and attract private investment.

The report argues that South Africa must elevate the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in its strategic planning, as the region is critical for global climate regulation, food security, and maritime safety. While South Africa is the only African state party to the Antarctic Treaty, its diplomatic engagement has been inconsistent. The document highlights rising risks from climate change, such as sea-level rise threatening African coasts, and geopolitical tensions, including Russia's seismic surveying and the blocking of Marine Protected Areas by China and Russia. It suggests South Africa leverage its non-claimant status and role as a logistical gateway to enhance its influence, while warning that its under-resourced navy may struggle with increasing search and rescue demands from growing Antarctic tourism and rerouted shipping traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.

The document analyzes the transition of South Africa from dominant-party rule to a coalition-based political landscape. It examines the formation and fragility of the 10-party Government of National Unity (GNU), provincial coalitions in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Northern Cape, and the chronic instability of municipal coalitions. The authors argue that while coalitions can broaden representation and introduce checks and balances, South Africa's current reliance on informal, non-binding agreements leads to gridlock and a reliance on courts for dispute resolution. The paper recommends formalizing coalition pacts, limiting motions of no confidence, and establishing transparent monitoring mechanisms to restore public trust.

The briefing identifies critical areas of focus for the 2026 Mining Indaba, specifically the impact of US, EU, and Chinese geopolitics on critical minerals, the struggle to establish domestic mineral value chains in Africa, the role of transport infrastructure like the Lobito Corridor, the viability of regional battery value chains between the DRC and Zambia, and the potential for engagement between the main event and the civil society-led Alternative Mining Indaba.

The Western Cape presents a total investable renewable energy opportunity of R37.4 billion across approximately 2.35 GW of new capacity by 2030. While severe grid constraints on the Eskom network have limited new connections, the 2025 NERSA approval of a 4% congestion curtailment mechanism is expected to unlock 1,180 MW of wind capacity, attracting R20.1 billion in investment. An additional R14 billion is tied to 926 MW of wind and solar projects currently in the budget quote (BQ) phase. Behind-the-meter (BTM) solar PV and battery energy storage systems (BESS) for businesses represent a resilient R3.3 billion market, driven by rising electricity tariffs and corporate decarbonisation pressures, although projects over 1 MW face high compliance costs. Long-term growth is expected following transmission upgrades on the Cape Corridor scheduled for 2028–2031.

The Succulent Karoo is identified as the world's only entirely arid biodiversity hotspot, characterized by high species richness and specific rainfall patterns in the Northern Cape.

The paper examines how AI tools for climate adaptation, primarily designed and governed by global North institutions, impose top-down risk representations that exclude the lived experiences and indigenous knowledge of global South communities. Using Cape Town's informal settlements as a case study, it illustrates how algorithmic abstraction can lead to ineffective policies and epistemic injustice. The author calls for a paradigm shift toward data sovereignty, participatory design, and epistemic pluralism to prevent 'smart' adaptation from replicating historical colonial patterns of exclusion.

The document argues that climate-risk mapping in the global South is currently split between 'precisionism'—the reliance on standardized indices and models—and 'groundtruthing'—the use of lived narratives and ethnography. Precisionism often creates a 'metrics mirage' that obscures social inequalities and justice claims, while groundtruthing struggles to gain policy traction in indicator-driven bureaucracies. To resolve this, the authors introduce 'epistemic diplomacy,' a power-aware procedural approach for integrating mixed evidence. This framework includes five guiding principles, a ten-step operating model, and specific governance safeguards to ensure community co-production and prevent knowledge extraction. The paper provides practical method pairings, such as combining heat sensors with social diaries, to create 'boundary objects' that maintain both technical precision and social meaning for policymakers.

The document argues that while South Africa's social grant system is perceived as rife with fraud, the majority of high-value fraud is perpetrated by government officials and predatory third parties rather than beneficiaries. It criticizes the government's current 'crackdown'—which includes biometric verification, credit bureau checks, and automated algorithms—as being ineffective and exclusionary, often wrongly branding eligible poor people as fraudsters. The author recommends moving away from narrow poverty targeting and focusing on rooting out public sector corruption to protect the rights of vulnerable citizens.

The document examines the nature of social grant fraud in South Africa, asserting that while the government focuses on policing beneficiaries, the majority of high-value fraud is perpetrated by government officials and contractors. It critiques current automated and biometric verification systems for creating barriers to access for the poor, elderly, and disabled, effectively excluding eligible recipients from essential support.

The document argues that while the South African government frames social grant fraud as a problem caused by beneficiaries, data indicates that the most significant fraud is perpetrated by state officials and predatory third parties. It criticizes the National Treasury and SASSA for implementing automated monitoring and verification tools—such as risk algorithms, bank account checks, and biometric verification—which the author claims are ineffective and lead to the wrongful exclusion of thousands of eligible poor, elderly, and disabled people.

The report examines climate change perceptions in Majuba Village, Eastern Cape, finding that while residents are acutely aware of environmental decline, they often explain it through spiritual or moral frameworks due to a lack of local, trusted scientific information. It identifies radio as the most critical medium for communication due to high data costs and limited internet access. The study highlights that disinformation fills the void left by institutional silence and recommends establishing community radio in local dialects (isiXhosa, Sesotho, and Hlubi) and training local facilitators to bridge the gap between science and traditional beliefs.