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The document analyzes electoral trends in Africa between 2015 and early 2016, identifying four negative trends: constitutional alterations to extend term limits, manipulation of electoral calendars, harassment of opposition candidates, and low voter turnout. It highlights a gap between the existence of continental democratic frameworks, such as the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), and the political will of governing elites to implement them. The authors recommend structural reforms, respect for electoral calendars, and the adoption of social media codes of conduct to protect freedom of expression.

The document forecasts that Africa's population will grow to over 1.8 billion by 2035, potentially compounding poverty if economic growth and job creation do not keep pace. While economic growth is expected, it will be heterogeneous, with oil-dependent nations remaining vulnerable to price shocks. The region faces significant infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity and water, and rapid urbanisation that may increase social instability. Despite a rise in riots and protests, high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s. Popular support for democracy remains strong, although actual democratic governance remains fragile and limited in scope.

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a leading 'norm entrepreneur' in Africa during the Mandela and Mbeki eras to a state currently facing a 'crisis of expectations' under President Jacob Zuma. While South Africa historically exported its model of democratic transition through mediation in Burundi and the DRC and the reform of continental institutions like the AU and SADC, it is now criticized for failing to oppose democratic reversals and human rights abuses. The brief highlights contradictions in South Africa's current approach, including its controversial withdrawal from the International Criminal Court and its reluctance to vote on country-specific human rights issues in the UN. It recommends that South Africa leverage its soft power and financial influence within the AU and SADC to regain its status as a champion of peace and governance.

The document analyzes Kenya's foreign policy across four presidencies, noting a historical tendency to 'punch below its weight' despite economic strength. It highlights a significant shift in 2011 with the military incursion into Somalia and the subsequent pan-African focus under Uhuru Kenyatta. The paper examines Kenya's role in regional integration through the EAC and LAPSSET project, its complex relations with South Africa, and the introduction of a new Foreign Policy Framework based on five pillars of diplomacy.

The document argues that while South Africa has been instrumental in the DRC's peace processes and initial state-building, its current approach is failing to ensure long-term institutional stability. The author contends that South Africa's 'quiet diplomacy' and reluctance to demand adherence to democratic values and the rule of law have allowed the DRC's political transition to stall, specifically regarding the postponement of presidential elections.

The project, completed in 2015 and funded by the European Union, installed off-grid PV systems in 40 health centres and a 20 kWp system at Kynyinya Hospital in Burundi. The initiative aimed to improve vaccine preservation and maternity conditions, benefiting at least 30,000 people. The total cost was approximately 1,300,000 EUR, with technical implementation led by ENERSOL (Belgium) and ETRAVE (Burundi).

The document analyzes the state of democracy in Africa, arguing that while electoral democracy has increased since 1989, it is often constrained by neopatrimonialism and a lack of governance capacity. It explores the 'sequencing debate' regarding whether democracy precedes or follows economic development, noting that while authoritarian models have sometimes delivered rapid growth, long-term human development is robustly linked to high-quality electoral democracy. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, the author forecasts that a 'Fourth Wave' of democracy could significantly increase Africa's GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2070 compared to an 'Authoritarian Regress' scenario.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) identified early indicators of instability in Burundi in 2014, including political intolerance and repressive legislation, prior to President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third term in 2015. Through a special report and ongoing analysis, the ISS provided guidance to diplomats, the African Union, and global leaders, while collaborating with organizations like Amnesty International to keep the crisis on the international agenda. Following the July 2015 elections, the situation escalated into violence resulting in over 450 deaths and the displacement of more than 250,000 people.

The document examines the integration of women into the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), highlighting a disconnect between constitutional mandates for 30% female representation and the actual experience of female soldiers. While Kenya has established a National Action Plan for UNSCR 1325 and seen the appointment of its first female brigadier, women remain underrepresented in leadership and are frequently excluded from combat roles due to patriarchal societal norms and a masculinist institutional culture. The report argues that 'gender-neutral' policies often fail to address substantive inequalities, leading to career stagnation and the persistence of sexual harassment within the military.

The document evaluates a capacity development programme on water security and climate resilient development involving 140 participants and 30 mentors across eight African nations. While it notes that the capacity to integrate climate change into national planning remains limited in most of these countries, the programme successfully fostered individual and institutional learning and sparked ongoing initiatives to include climate considerations in national development. The brief suggests that future iterations of the programme would be more cost-effective due to existing investments in learning materials and training of trainers.

The East African Community (EAC) took a lead role in managing the 2015 Burundi crisis, but its efforts were largely unsuccessful due to internal divisions among member states and a lack of binding implementation mechanisms. While the EAC initially attempted preventive diplomacy through a 'Delegation of the Wise', subsequent summits and facilitation efforts by leaders like Yoweri Museveni and Benjamin Mkapa failed to prevent violence or secure an inclusive political dialogue. The report highlights how geopolitical tensions between Rwanda and Tanzania further undermined regional cohesion, ultimately allowing the Burundian government to resist international pressure and proceed with contested elections.

The study examines bioscience innovation in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, focusing on crop improvement, agro-industrial waste conversion, value-added sorghum and millet products, and industrial enzymes. It finds that while R&D knowledge is generally strong, the transition to market is hindered by weak policy guidance, insufficient market creation, and limited resource mobilization. The authors argue that the region's R&D is 'demand-driven, but not business-driven', and recommend strengthening public-private partnerships, establishing business incubators, and creating national bioeconomy strategies to bridge the gap between research and commercialization.

The study finds that ethnic civil wars have indeed declined since the mid-1990s, supporting Ted Robert Gurr's projections. The authors demonstrate that this pacifying trend is associated with increased government accommodation, specifically through the granting of group rights, power-sharing, and democratization, which reduce the probability of conflict onset. Additionally, regional autonomy and peacekeeping operations are found to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict termination. Out-of-sample predictions show that a theory-driven model based on accommodative politics far outperforms a simple time-trend model in predicting the actual decline of ethnic conflict from 2000 to 2013.

The report examines the 2015 crisis in Burundi, arguing that while President Pierre Nkurunziza's attempt to secure an unconstitutional third term was the immediate trigger, the situation was underpinned by a long history of government intransigence, systemic repression of the opposition, and corruption. It details the CNDD-FDD's strategy of consolidating power through the 'nyakurisation' method of dividing opposition parties and the use of legislative tools to restrict civil liberties. The document also analyzes the internal fractures within the ruling party, the failure of the Arusha Agreement's power-sharing framework, and the subsequent violent crackdown on protestors, the media, and civil society following a failed coup attempt in May 2015.

The report argues that Burundi's post-transition period has been marked by cyclical patterns of state-led repression and political violence. While early post-transition violence was primarily intra-ethnic among Hutu, the 2015 crisis began as a crackdown on peaceful protesters and evolved into an insurgency involving diverse armed groups. The authors highlight the failure of the Arusha Agreement to establish a separation of powers and transitional justice, which allowed the ruling CNDD-FDD to centralise power and maintain impunity for security forces.

The policy brief examines how domestic xenophobia contradicts South Africa's 'diplomacy of ubuntu' and its aspirations for African leadership. It highlights specific incidents of violence and government failures, suggesting that South Africa must address the root causes of intolerance domestically and regionalise its policy responses to reclaim its international standing.

The report examines the relationship between human migration and ecosystem degradation in the Great Lakes Region of Africa, focusing on case studies in Uganda, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It argues that while migration is not the primary cause of environmental pressure, it acts as an exacerbating factor that increases habitat destruction and unsustainable resource use. The document provides a framework for conservationists to integrate migration trends into land-use planning and natural resource governance.

The report examines the precarious lives of women linked to rebel and militia groups in eastern DRC, arguing that these women are often less dependent on their partners than assumed and instead rely on opportunistic coping strategies. It highlights their role in the illegal trade of natural resources and the failure of national disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) policies to account for female dependants, which perpetuates a cycle of conflict for subsequent generations.

The report details how two Kenyan financial institutions, Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA) and Jubilee Insurance, integrated executive coaching to address leadership gaps and workforce demographic shifts. CBA focused on creating a sustainable internal coaching culture by certifying managers and training line managers in coaching skills. Jubilee Insurance implemented a three-phased leadership programme involving self-assessment, 360-degree feedback, and planned internal coach development. Both institutions reported improvements in staff engagement, leadership cohesion, and a shift toward solution-focused management, with Jubilee specifically noting increases in revenue and productivity per employee.

The document highlights that 76% of Kenyans rely on traditional biomass for cooking, leading to significant public health crises and economic losses. It argues that while Kenya is a leader in clean cookstove distribution, large-scale transformation requires removing market barriers, such as high import duties, and regulating the charcoal sector. The brief recommends a shift from end-user subsidies to upstream value chain support and the adoption of human-centered design to ensure long-term stove usage.