Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) identified early indicators of instability in Burundi in 2014, including political intolerance and repressive legislation, prior to President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third term in 2015. Through a special report and ongoing analysis, the ISS provided guidance to diplomats, the African Union, and global leaders, while collaborating with organizations like Amnesty International to keep the crisis on the international agenda. Following the July 2015 elections, the situation escalated into violence resulting in over 450 deaths and the displacement of more than 250,000 people.

• In early 2014, ISS researchers identified several warning signs of instability in Burundi, specifically noting political intolerance, the introduction of repressive legislation, and a decline in the government's commitment to power sharing before the 2015 elections.
• The ISS published a special report on Burundi in 2014 that analyzed the country's historical fragility, current political risks, and the influence of hardliners within the ruling party, preceding President Nkurunziza's announcement of a third-term bid by one year.
• Following the July 2015 re-election of President Nkurunziza, violence between rebels and government security forces killed more than 450 people, and the UN estimated that over 250,000 Burundians were displaced.
• The ISS influenced international stakeholders, including the African Union, diplomats, and The Elders, by providing analysis on the territory and identifying potential leverage against the Burundi government.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2016). Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis. https://issafrica.org/impact/change-story-responding-to-burundis-slow-spiral-into-crisis

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis. 2016. https://issafrica.org/impact/change-story-responding-to-burundis-slow-spiral-into-crisis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis |date=21 September 2016 |url=https://issafrica.org/impact/change-story-responding-to-burundis-slow-spiral-into-crisis |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2016change, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.org/impact/change-story-responding-to-burundis-slow-spiral-into-crisis}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }