Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis

This case study describes how the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) provided early warning analysis and reporting on the political crisis in Burundi, specifically regarding President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third term and the subsequent violence and displacement.

• In early 2014, ISS researchers identified indicators of instability in Burundi, including political intolerance, repressive legislation, and a decline in government commitment to power sharing prior to the 2015 elections.
• The ISS published a special report on Burundi in 2014, one year before President Pierre Nkurunziza announced his bid for a third term, which analyzed the country's historical fragility, political risks, and the influence of hardliners within the ruling party.
• Following President Nkurunziza's re-election in July 2015, violence between rebels and government security forces resulted in over 450 deaths, while the UN estimates more than 250,000 people were displaced.
• The ISS collaborated with organizations such as Amnesty International, the International Crisis Group, and Crisis Action to maintain international attention on the crisis and ensure the flow of reliable information.
• ISS analysis and guidance were sought by various stakeholders, including diplomats, special envoys, The Elders, and the African Union, to understand the crisis and determine effective leverage against the Burundi government.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2016). Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis. https://issafrica.org/impact/change-story-responding-to-burundis-slow-spiral-into-crisis

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis. 2016. https://issafrica.org/impact/change-story-responding-to-burundis-slow-spiral-into-crisis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis |date=21 September 2016 |url=https://issafrica.org/impact/change-story-responding-to-burundis-slow-spiral-into-crisis |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2016change, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.org/impact/change-story-responding-to-burundis-slow-spiral-into-crisis}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }