Analysing post-transition violence in Burundi

The report argues that Burundi's post-transition period has been marked by cyclical patterns of state-led repression and political violence. While early post-transition violence was primarily intra-ethnic among Hutu, the 2015 crisis began as a crackdown on peaceful protesters and evolved into an insurgency involving diverse armed groups. The authors highlight the failure of the Arusha Agreement to establish a separation of powers and transitional justice, which allowed the ruling CNDD-FDD to centralise power and maintain impunity for security forces.

• Since the end of the political transition, violence in Burundi has followed cyclical patterns of repression, with a significant portion of power struggles and violence occurring intra-ethnically among Hutu, such as the 2005-2006 and 2010-2011 episodes.
• The 2015 crisis differed from previous episodes because it began as a state crackdown on peaceful protesters rather than a response to an existing rebellion, though it eventually led to an insurgency.
• The armed opposition following the 2015 crisis is composed of diverse actors, including police and army deserters and former combatants from both Hutu and Tutsi backgrounds, with increased Tutsi participation linked to recruitment in Rwandan refugee camps.
• The Burundian government has systematically obstructed efforts for an inclusive political resolution, refusing to negotiate with the exile-based opposition platform CNARED and rejecting the deployment of an AU peacekeeping force (Maprobu).
• The Arusha Agreement's focus on ethnic power-sharing quotas rather than the separation of institutional powers allowed the ruling CNDD-FDD to centralise authority and use regional patronage to exclude opponents.
• A critical failure of the post-transition peace-building process was the neglect of transitional justice and the rule of law, which fostered a culture of impunity and the continued instrumentalisation of the police by the ruling party.

APA

Bouka, Y., & Wolters, S. (2016). Analysing post-transition violence in Burundi. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CentralAfricaReportNo6.pdf

Chicago

Bouka, Yolande, and Stephanie Wolters. Analysing post-transition violence in Burundi. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CentralAfricaReportNo6.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bouka |first1=Yolande |last2=Wolters |first2=Stephanie |title=Analysing post-transition violence in Burundi |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CentralAfricaReportNo6.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bouka2016analysing, author = {Bouka, Yolande and Wolters, Stephanie}, title = {{Analysing post-transition violence in Burundi}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = jul, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CentralAfricaReportNo6.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }