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This research paper argues that Burundi's transition to peace is precarious because the focus has remained on political power-sharing and elections while neglecting the socio-economic reconstruction outlined in Protocol IV of the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Accords. The author asserts that failure to address structural causes of conflict—specifically extreme poverty, land scarcity, and unequal resource distribution—could lead the country back into a 'conflict trap'.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the risks surrounding Burundi's scheduled November 1, 2004, elections. The author argues that the country is caught between the contradictory demands of peace-making and electioneering, with significant technical, security, and political preconditions remaining unmet. The document highlights a dangerous trend toward 'win-lose' politics and the growing influence of militarized political power, warning that without a genuine national consensus and inclusive reforms, the elections could trigger a return to the ethnic violence seen after the 1993 elections.

This situation report from the Institute for Security Studies provides an update on the military and political progress in Burundi as of March 2004, focusing on the implementation of the November 2003 cease-fire agreement and the potential for a United Nations peacekeeping mission to succeed the African Union's Mission in Burundi (AMIB).