Search Climate Insights Directory

The report examines the complexities of humanitarian intervention in the post-Cold War era, where internal conflicts predominate over interstate wars. It argues that these conflicts are often driven by economic and political injustice and manipulated by 'conflict entrepreneurs' who mobilize ethnic identity for power. The text analyzes the ethical dilemmas of intervention through the Just War tradition, the systemic coordination failures between the UN and NGOs, and the specific dynamics of Russian interventions in the former Soviet south and emergent peace-keeping efforts in Africa.

A coalition of European civil society organisations (CSOs) is protesting a campaign of disinformation led by some Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from the European People’s Party (EPP) and far-right groups. The attack specifically targets the legitimacy of public funding for environmental NGOs under the LIFE programme. The statement argues that independent CSOs are essential for a functioning democracy and a fully informed decision-making process, contrasting the modest public grants received by NGOs with the high spending of corporate lobbyists in Brussels.

The document outlines mandatory requirements and recommendations for several GCF funding proposals across various countries. General requirements for all proposals include signing a funded activity agreement (FAA), completing legal due diligence, and confirming internal approvals. Project-specific conditions vary, including requirements for solar power financing in Mongolia, grievance mechanisms in Senegal, co-financing and budget increases for forest conservation in Bhutan, and water-balance studies in Ethiopia. Recommendations focus on gender-sensitive training, biodiversity protection in Egypt, and women's participation in water committees in Colombia.

The GCF approved USD 3.7 billion for 76 projects across 79 developing countries, targeting a reduction of 1.3 billion metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Key operational developments include the launch of the Simplified Approval Process (SAP) Pilot Scheme, the adoption of an Indigenous Peoples Policy, and the establishment of an Environmental and Social Policy. The fund is also preparing for its first formal replenishment process and expanding its private sector engagement through dedicated pilot programmes for MSMEs and resource mobilization at scale.

The document is a collection of essays and interviews exploring the concept of borders in Europe. It argues that while the Schengen Agreement created a symbolic and practical 'common home' for Europeans, the refugee crisis has triggered a return to national borders and 'cognitive barriers.' Contributors discuss the failure of the Dublin Regulation, the need for a common European asylum system, and the potential for 'borderless solidarity.' The volume also extends the analysis of borders to the maritime domain, arguing for the ocean to be treated as a 'global nation' or common good to prevent resource exploitation and conflict.

The author argues that the South African Army's current force design, based on a 'core force' approach and non-offensive posture from the late 1990s, is inadequate for the realities of 'war among the people'. The analysis highlights the rise of China's influence in Africa, the failure of multilateral institutions, and the necessity of shifting toward intelligence-led, psychological operations to avoid the failures seen in peacekeeping missions like Srebrenica. Locally, the army faces challenges from an ageing force structure, loss of key skills, and the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

The study examines whether ethnic civil war increases ethnonationalism and if direct exposure to violence strengthens these attitudes. Using data from 1989 and 2003, the author finds that while ethnonationalism increased significantly in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia, it remained stable in Kosovo and Macedonia. Individual war exposure only significantly increased ethnonationalism in Croatia, suggesting that the relationship between conflict and nationalism is context-dependent rather than deterministic.

The authors analyze how violence spreads in space and time during civil wars, distinguishing between relocation diffusion (shifting violence) and escalation diffusion (expanding violence). Using a modified joint count statistic and Monte Carlo simulations on ACLED event data from Bosnia, Kosovo, Burundi, and Rwanda, the study finds that violence typically expands in scope, supporting the theory that irregular warfare lacks demarcated front lines.

The report details a conference in Brussels where representatives of Greek Cypriots (GCs) and Turkish Cypriots (TCs) discussed the legal, normative, and economic challenges of property restitution and compensation. Key tensions include the GCs' emphasis on the right of the legal owner to choose the remedy and the TCs' focus on the rights of current users and the principle of bizonality. The proceedings explore the role of the Immovable Property Commission (IPC), the impact of European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) rulings, and the financial impossibility of full market-value compensation, suggesting alternative market-based exchange mechanisms and the need for social reconciliation.

The study examines the link between civil war exposure and authoritarianism using survey data from Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Croatia. It finds that while direct personal loss does not consistently increase authoritarianism, symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are strongly associated with a more authoritarian value orientation across all three countries. The author argues that the individual's ability to cope with trauma, rather than violence itself, is the primary driver of these values, which may hinder democratic consolidation in the region.

The authors argue that International Financial Institutions (IFIs), such as the IMF and World Bank, exercise extraordinary leverage in post-conflict states to impose neoliberal reforms that often exacerbate gendered insecurity. By introducing the concept of 'gendered circuits of violence,' the paper demonstrates how macroeconomic policies—including austerity, debt-based financialization, and extractive resource economics—disproportionately burden women and marginalized groups. The text highlights that while IFIs have adopted the rhetoric of gender equality as 'smart economics,' these efforts are often superficial and fail to address the material realities of unpaid care work and structural violence. Case studies from Ukraine, East Timor, and the Western Balkans illustrate how IFI-mandated reforms can lead to increased household debt, the erosion of social welfare, and even the incitement of physical violence against women.

The report argues that formal education systems can either fuel or mitigate armed conflict depending on their inclusivity, quality, and relationship with the community. Through case studies in Guatemala, Nepal, and Liberia, the author identifies four conflict-transforming concepts: equitable inclusion, positive socialization, the creation of social capital, and the provision of socio-economic benefits. The study finds that educational exclusion and authoritarian teaching methods often mirror and reinforce the structural inequalities that drive conflict, while participatory, child-centered education and equitable resource distribution can raise the opportunity costs of joining rebellions and foster a culture of non-violence. The report recommends that national governments and international donors integrate education into peacebuilding processes, prioritize social justice in curricula, and better link schooling to the labor market to ensure that education provides tangible hope and economic mobility.

The research argues that transnational ethnic ties increase the risk of civil war, but this effect is conditional on the domestic demographic size of the marginalized group. Using a triadic model and geocoded data, the authors find that larger excluded groups with kin in neighboring states are significantly more likely to engage in conflict than those without such ties, while the governmental status of the external kin group does not have a statistically significant impact.

The research demonstrates that states experiencing civil wars are significantly more likely to be involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Using data from 1946 to 2001, the authors find that this 'civil peace' effect is comparable in magnitude to the 'democratic peace' effect. Analysis of over 400 MIDs reveals that the increased risk is driven by states attempting to influence the outcome of civil wars through direct intervention, externalization (such as cross-border counter-insurgency), and unintended spillovers, rather than by opportunistic attacks on weakened states or diversionary wars to consolidate domestic power.

The authors use geo-coded data from 31 federal states to argue that both relatively rich and relatively poor regions are more prone to secessionist conflict than those with average wealth. The study also finds that the presence of politically excluded ethnic groups and the existence of regional autonomy further elevate the risk of violent secessionist conflict.

The author examines the challenges of gathering data on sexual violence in war, noting that it is often used as a political tool to demoralize enemies and reinforce masculinity. The text highlights historical examples from Nanking, Berlin, Rwanda, and Bosnia to illustrate the systemic nature of these crimes. It argues that current data collection is hindered by victim stigma, lack of uniform definitions, and poor baseline data. To move from 'overview to insight,' the author suggests that researchers must analyze how sexual violence interacts with national and gender identities, noting that victims who view themselves as 'ethnic victims' often find more social support than those who view themselves as 'female victims.'

The paper examines the implementation of the United Nations' Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda in Bosnia and Herzegovina, focusing on the localization of gender equality norms. Through focus group interviews, the authors identify two primary narrative responses: 'narratives of support' and 'narratives of resistance'. Support is articulated at the macro level, framing gender equality as a legacy of the socialist past, a marker of Western modernization, or a space for religious manoeuvrability. Conversely, resistance occurs at the meso and micro levels, driven by deep-rooted patriarchal traditions and ethno-nationalist divisions. The authors argue that effective implementation of UNSCR 1325 requires moving beyond state-centric policies to address these interpersonal and intrapersonal psychological barriers.

The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.

The research examines the causal chain from formal (de jure) power-sharing institutions to peace, arguing that institutions operate primarily by inducing specific behavioral practices (de facto power-sharing). Using a global dataset of 180 countries from 1975 to 2010, the authors find that inclusive institutions increase the share of ethnic groups in government, which reduces the likelihood of rebellions by excluded groups but increases the risk of infighting among coalition partners. Dispersive institutions, such as federalism, are found to decrease the risk of ethnic conflict by increasing regional autonomy for minorities, although this effect is less statistically robust than that of inclusive institutions.

The document examines the contested nature of 'power sharing,' noting that it is often implemented as a tool for conflict resolution but yields contradictory results in research. It identifies four primary types of power sharing: political, military, territorial, and economic. The author argues that findings vary based on whether researchers view power sharing as a means to achieve stable democracy (consociationalism) or as a tool for postconflict conflict management. While some studies suggest inclusive institutions prolong peace by addressing rebel security concerns, others argue they reward violence, strengthen ethnic divisions, and hinder democratic accountability by marginalizing opposition.