Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019

The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.

• In 2019, the number of state-based conflicts reached a record high since 1946, with a total of 54 conflicts recorded.
• The expansion of the Islamic State (IS) has been a primary driver of the increase in conflicts since 2013. Despite reports of defeat in Syria, IS conflicts increased from 12 in 2018 to 16 in 2019, expanding into Somalia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Mozambique.
• Battle-related deaths have steadily decreased over the past 20 years, with approximately 50,000 deaths recorded globally in 2019. Afghanistan and Syria were the two deadliest conflicts in 2019, with Afghanistan seeing an escalation to nearly 30,000 deaths.
• Internationalized civil conflicts have seen a sharp increase since 2014, and the share of battle deaths in these conflicts has surpassed those in non-internationalized civil conflicts over the last five years.
• Conflict recurrence is most prevalent in Africa and Asia, suggesting that underlying grievances and incompatibilities in these regions remain unresolved.
• Since 2010, there has been a considerable increase in humanitarian ceasefires, particularly in Syria and Yemen, which the authors suggest may indicate the increasing severity of recent conflicts.
• The number of peace agreements has declined between 2015 and 2018, falling from 13 to 5. Africa has recorded the highest total number of peace agreements (187) between 1975 and 2018.
• Non-state conflicts have stabilized at a higher level than a decade ago. While Africa and the Middle East have high levels of such conflict, Latin America experiences the most violent non-state conflicts, largely due to drug cartel violence in Mexico.
• One-sided violence has decreased globally since the mid-2000s, but Africa is the only region that has seen an increase in the number of groups perpetrating such violence.

APA

Rustad, S. A., Palik, J., & Methi, F. (n.d.). Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/88d2a9d8-3007-4b37-b57b-745e413d0b47/Palik Rustad Methi - Conflict Trends A Global Overview 1946-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rustad, Siri Aas, Júlia Palik, and Fredrik Methi. Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/88d2a9d8-3007-4b37-b57b-745e413d0b47/Palik Rustad Methi - Conflict Trends A Global Overview 1946-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rustad |first1=Siri Aas |last2=Palik |first2=Júlia |last3=Methi |first3=Fredrik |title=Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/88d2a9d8-3007-4b37-b57b-745e413d0b47/Palik Rustad Methi - Conflict Trends A Global Overview 1946-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rustadndconflict, author = {Rustad, Siri Aas and Palik, Júlia and Methi, Fredrik}, title = {{Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/88d2a9d8-3007-4b37-b57b-745e413d0b47/Palik Rustad Methi - Conflict Trends A Global Overview 1946-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }