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The report finds that while global coal capacity saw a net increase of 34.1 GW in 2019, this was driven almost entirely by China. Excluding China, the global coal industry declined for the second consecutive year. The report highlights a significant shift in financing, with Western commercial banks withdrawing direct funding for new coal, while Chinese and Indian state-backed institutions continue to provide critical capital. Regional analysis shows sharp declines in pre-construction capacity in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, though some countries like Japan and Turkey continue to pursue coal development despite international pressure.

The document assesses the GRP Incubator's approach to scaling resilience solutions, focusing on five grantees: Groundswell, IFPRI, Mahila Housing Trust, MetaMeta, and Producers Direct. It details the Incubator's support mechanisms, including mentoring, leadership training, and financial networking, and evaluates the progress of these grantees across a three-stage scaling framework. Key findings highlight the importance of context-specific adaptation, stakeholder engagement, and the transition from grant-funded projects to sustainable business models.

The Global Resilience Partnership (GRP) has compiled a directory of resilience-focused initiatives, categorising them into funds and financing facilities, networks and alliances, organisations, and specific programmes and projects. The mapping covers a wide array of mechanisms, from large-scale funds like the Green Climate Fund to specialised regional initiatives such as the Africa Risk Capacity and the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility. These initiatives target various sectors including agriculture, urban infrastructure, water management, and financial risk disclosure, with a strong emphasis on supporting Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and vulnerable populations.

The report identifies that financial service providers (FSPs) prioritize economic factors—specifically governance and business management—over environmental and social themes when assessing financial risk for agricultural investments. Key priorities include management experience, existing buyer relationships, land tenure, and projected cash flows. While climate change is the most important non-economic theme, with a preference for adaptation measures, social and biodiversity issues are often viewed as having more impact on sustainability than on financial risk reduction. The document recommends that agricultural producers seek capacity-building in business management and that voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) integrate more economic criteria to help producers become more bankable.

The document argues that healthy ecosystems, such as mangroves and wetlands, act as critical buffers that reduce the physical exposure of African coastal cities to natural hazards. It promotes the adoption of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) as cost-effective, nature-based solutions. While international frameworks like the Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement provide support, the author notes that regional policies in Africa linking biodiversity conservation to disaster risk reduction are virtually non-existent. The brief identifies significant barriers to implementation, including weak governance, fragmented sectoral approaches, and a lack of funding for capacity development, recommending a holistic, multi-sectoral integration of nature-based solutions into national development strategies.

The document examines South Africa's strategic positioning in global nuclear security amidst domestic economic decline and budget cuts to its foreign affairs and defence sectors. It highlights the risks posed by nuclear tensions in Iran and the Korean Peninsula, and suggests that South Africa can maintain its global relevance through 'niche diplomacy' and strategic partnerships. The author recommends using the 2020 NPT Review Conference and AU chairmanship to build a unified African position on nuclear disarmament and exploring informal 'Friends of the Chair' diplomatic models to bypass political impasses.

South Africa introduced a carbon tax in 2019 to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of 34% by 2020 and 42% by 2025. The policy primarily targets the energy sector, which is responsible for approximately 80% of the country's emissions due to a heavy reliance on coal. While the tax aims to incentivize a shift toward renewable energy, it faces challenges including potential conflicts with WTO non-discrimination principles, the risk of carbon leakage due to a lack of border price adjustments, and negative socio-economic impacts such as increased consumer prices and potential job losses in energy-intensive industries like mining and steel. The document argues for a balanced approach that includes worker re-skilling, targeted incentives for renewables, and regional coordination through agreements like the AfCFTA to prevent protectionism and ensure a just transition.

The report finds that low-carbon energy transitions do not automatically improve social equity and can replicate existing structural inequalities if power asymmetries are not addressed. While some technologies like household solar provide benefits, others—particularly large-scale hydropower and biofuel plantations—often lead to land loss, displacement, and precarious employment. The authors argue that institutional frameworks and participatory processes, rather than the technology itself, determine whether a transition is just.

The document examines the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in developing infrastructure in the SADC region, distinguishing them from privatisation and highlighting their potential to overcome budget constraints and technical inefficiencies. It identifies key barriers to PPP uptake in SADC, including political interference, lack of administrative maturity, and the risks of hidden debt through government guarantees. The briefing recommends the establishment of independent PPP units, improved public engagement protocols, and rigorous due diligence on partners to ensure sustainable project delivery.

The AfCFTA is projected to generate $16.1 billion in welfare gains and a 33% increase in intra-African trade, though full tariff-free trade (97%) will take 15 years to realize. Key challenges for investors include non-tariff barriers, stringent rules of origin to ensure domestic value-addition, and the lengthy process of services liberalisation.

The paper outlines three primary areas where South Africa can exert leadership as AU chair: 'Silencing the Guns' by mediating conflicts in Libya and South Sudan; ensuring the timely implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) by July 1, 2020; and revitalizing the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to improve continental governance.

The European Union views the transition to renewable energy as a path toward energy security and industrial power, yet it faces significant strategic hurdles. Internally, the EU lacks a unified vision for its future integrated energy system, leading to risks of redundant spending and a 'multi-speed' transition where Western and Eastern member states have diverging interests. Externally, the shift creates new dependencies on critical materials and intensifies industrial rivalry with the US and China. The author suggests that the EU must move beyond a purely economic approach to a comprehensive industrial and political strategy, potentially supported by the Green Deal and the Just Transition Fund, to ensure long-term stability and competitiveness.

The document reviews the state of adaptation finance as of early 2020, highlighting the Adaptation Committee's projections of rising costs and the Adaptation Fund's operational milestones. It addresses the difficulty of tracking adaptation flows, noting that while finance increased by 35% in 2017-2018, it represents only 5% of tracked climate finance. The brief also contrasts the massive business opportunities in adaptation solutions with the urgent needs of vulnerable populations, arguing that adaptation requires a rethinking of production and equity.

The report details the Green Climate Fund's overall pipeline of 382 projects with a total value of $55.163 billion. It breaks down these figures by sector (Public and Private), region, and theme, while specifically analyzing the subsets of 'Funding Proposals' and 'Concept Notes'.

The global green bond and green loan market reached a record USD 257.7 billion in 2019, a 51% increase over 2018. Growth was primarily driven by Europe, which accounted for 45% of global issuance. The USA, China, and France remained the top-ranked countries, together representing 44% of the market. Energy and Buildings were the dominant sectors for use of proceeds, each holding approximately 30% market share. Certified Climate Bonds grew by 86% to reach USD 45 billion, with cumulative certified issuance surpassing the USD 100 billion milestone. The market also saw increased diversification with debut issuances from emerging markets including Kenya, Barbados, and Saudi Arabia.

The report evaluates global security threats under two warming scenarios: a 'Near Term' scenario (1-2°C) and a 'Medium-Long Term' scenario (2-4+°C). It concludes that even low levels of warming present high to very high risks, while higher warming levels pose catastrophic and potentially irreversible threats to global stability. The analysis is structured around U.S. Geographic Combatant Command areas, detailing how climate-induced physical shocks and social tensions act as threat multipliers that can lead to state failure, resource conflict, and the breakdown of international alliances.

The report analyzes the services sector's role in African development and the implications of the AfCFTA. It identifies Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, Ghana, and Nigeria as the continent's largest services exporters. The study highlights a significant gap in comprehensive services trade data, particularly for Mode 3 (commercial presence), and recommends implementing the 2010 Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services. For South Africa, the report finds that services value added in gross exports is more than double the share of services exports, emphasizing the sector's role as an input for manufacturing. It argues for a developmental trade strategy that integrates services with industrial policy and warns against premature deindustrialization.

The Global Futures project uses a new integrated environment-economy model to quantify the economic risks of biodiversity loss. Under a 'Business-as-Usual' scenario, the loss of six key ecosystem services is projected to reduce annual global GDP by 0.67% by 2050, totaling a cumulative loss of US$ 9.87 trillion. Conversely, a 'Global Conservation' scenario could result in a net annual gain of US$ 490 billion compared to the BAU scenario. The report highlights that low-income countries and coastal infrastructure in high-income nations are most vulnerable, and recommends a 'New Deal for Nature and People' including the protection of 30% of land and oceans.

The document examines Rwanda's engagement with the G20 Compact with Africa (CwA), arguing that Rwanda's 'reform culture capital' makes it an ideal candidate for the initiative. It details Rwanda's transition from a post-genocide foundation stage (1994-2004) to a development stage (2005-2018), leading up to Vision 2050. The brief highlights the CwA's role in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) through public-private partnerships (PPPs) to address infrastructure deficits, such as the $1.3 billion Isaka–Kigali rail project. While noting early successes in tax-to-GDP ratios and FDI, the author warns that the CwA still reflects the interests of developed nations and that Rwanda's small economy limits its ability to drive CwA adoption across East Africa.

The document examines Ghana's engagement with the G20 Compact with Africa (CwA), noting that while the country has a strong appetite for reform, many commitments were already part of IMF programmes. It finds that while FDI generally increased between 2015 and 2018, there is little evidence that this was caused by the CwA, and the level of investment has not been commensurate with the reforms required. The author argues for a more inclusive, all-government approach and stronger engagement with the domestic private sector to unlock meaningful investment.