Search Climate Insights Directory

The report examines climate variability and projections for Kampala, finding that while annual rainfall has remained stable, temperatures rose by approximately 1ºC between 1979 and 2005. Future projections suggest temperature increases of 1.5ºC (RCP 4.5) to 3ºC (RCP 8.5) by 2095. The study highlights that flooding is the most significant climate impact, exacerbated by the encroachment of human settlements into wetlands and poor urban drainage. Economic estimates indicate that annual flood damages could rise from US$1.3–7.3 million in 2013 to US$33.2–101.7 million by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. The cost of climate-proofing buildings and roads between 2015 and 2050 is estimated at US$3.2 billion (RCP 4.5) to US$3.7 billion (RCP 8.5), with residential buildings accounting for 72% of these costs. A cost-benefit analysis of drainage improvements in four catchments showed mixed results, with only two projects yielding a positive net present value. The report recommends revising building codes and the Kampala Physical Development Plan, strengthening the enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments to protect wetlands, and integrating informality into climate resilience strategies.

The study investigates the 2014/15 drought in southeast Brazil, specifically focusing on the impacts in São Paulo. Using a multi-method approach including historical observations and climate model simulations, the researchers found limited evidence that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions increased the hydrometeorological hazard. Instead, the severe impacts on water supply were primarily attributed to rapid population growth and increased water consumption.

The report uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool to project that Uganda's total water demand will increase from 408 million cubic meters per year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y by 2050. Under a 'business as usual' scenario, total unmet demand is expected to rise from 3.7 MCM/y to 1,651 MCM/y. The estimated economic cost of these shortages in 2050 is 14,558 billion shillings (US$5.5 billion), though this could be ten times higher if income elasticity is considered. The most significant losses are anticipated in the Lake Victoria, Albert Nile, and Lake Kyoga watersheds. The report also highlights the impact of extreme events, noting that droughts in 2005-06 and 2010-11 caused losses of US$250 million and US$1,174 million, respectively. Proposed adaptation measures, including water harvesting, increased supply for production, and Integrated Water Resources Management, are found to be economically viable, with some generating a 10% rate of return even with minimal reductions in damage.

The paper examines the slow progress of sanitation coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa, specifically in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, and Burundi. It identifies a critical disconnect between macro-level policies and micro-level household implementation, driven by institutional inertia and path dependency. The authors argue that sustainable progress requires moving beyond supply-driven subsidies toward demand-driven strategies, private sector involvement, and a better understanding of informal norms and multi-level actor interactions.

The report examines the complexities of service provision in peri-urban areas—the transition zones between rural and urban environments—which often suffer from unclear institutional mandates and rapid, unplanned growth. It argues for a shift from linear to circular nutrient management to enhance food security, a systems-based approach to the water-energy nexus, and the use of inclusive, community-led planning to ensure sustainable and equitable service delivery.

The document details the application of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system to model the La Vieja river basin, covering an area of approximately 2,880 km2 across the departments of Quindío, Valle del Cauca, and Risaralda. The model incorporates 37 watercourses, 16 human consumption demands, and 4 hydroelectric demands. By utilizing a soil moisture rain-runoff method and calibrating parameters such as runoff resistance and hydraulic conductivity, the project established a framework to evaluate 1,728 scenarios involving climate variability and demographic changes. This process aims to support regional environmental authorities in formulating adaptation strategies for water resource planning through 2050.

The document examines the PAARSS programme (1999-2007) in Mozambique, which integrated disaster risk reduction into water and sanitation services to build community resilience in flood-prone districts. It argues that ecosystem management is an undervalued but effective solution for mitigating hazards and reducing vulnerability, particularly as global environmental and climate changes increase disaster trends.

The study utilized IWRM models for Bukoba, Masaka, and Kisii to evaluate water resource sustainability. Findings indicate that all three towns are currently infrastructure-limited, with varying degrees of urgency for investment and different long-term supply outlooks based on local conditions.

The document identifies a significant gap between Rwanda's ambitious national sanitation policies, such as Vision 2020, and the reality of toilet construction and usage in rural areas. Field research in the Burera district reveals that most facilities do not meet government hygiene standards due to socio-economic factors, lack of technical support, and ineffective information transfer. The brief argues that current monitoring methods overstate progress by focusing on the presence of technology rather than its functional use, and recommends a function-based monitoring approach alongside improved community coordination and financial schemes.

The document examines Malawi's use of predominantly fiscal investment incentives, such as tax breaks and industrial rebates, to attract investment. It highlights a tension between the government's need for tax revenue to manage public debt and the private sector's demand for incentives. The author argues that these incentives result in significant revenue loss and may not be the primary driver of investment decisions, suggesting a shift toward improving the overall domestic business environment.

The research analyzes climate change adaptation in Stockholm's water supply and wastewater sector, finding that most measures focus on building adaptive capacity rather than implementing final decisions. The ability of organizations to pursue adaptation options is primarily driven by their capacity to justify additional resources, either through the application of climate knowledge or by citing existing rules and regulations.

The California Water Supply and Demand Model (CWSD) assesses how climate change affects water availability and usage in California, focusing on the energy, urban, and agricultural sectors. The model evaluates scenarios with no adaptation, slow adaptation, and fast adaptation across different climate projections (B1 and A2). Key findings indicate that without adaptation, agricultural water demand will rise due to higher temperatures, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. While slow adaptation may only marginally reduce use, fast adaptation—driven by higher water prices and technological efficiency—could significantly decrease demand. The report also extends its agricultural analysis to other Western U.S. states, noting a general increase in water demand by 2100.

The document examines the vulnerability of the European power sector to climate change, focusing on the interdependence between water supply and electricity generation. It argues that rising temperatures and water scarcity can force power plants, particularly nuclear facilities, to reduce production, which in turn disrupts the European electricity exchange system. Using a theoretical model and scenarios based on IPCC projections, the authors demonstrate that countries heavily dependent on electricity imports, such as Italy and the Netherlands, are particularly vulnerable to production constraints in major exporting nations like France.

The report examines climate change adaptation within the water supply and wastewater (WW) sector of the Stockholm region, focusing on four regional organizations: Norrvatten, Roslagsvatten, Käppalaförbundet, and Stockholm Vatten. Using a framework of organizational learning, the study distinguishes between building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptive decisions. Findings indicate that while the sector is actively building adaptive capacity through regional cooperation and research, there is limited evidence of implementing costly adaptive decisions. The 'actual adaptation space' is primarily constrained by 'price sensitive politics', where the high cost of infrastructure changes and the time lag between investment and benefit make it difficult to justify fee increases to municipal politicians. Additionally, uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of climate impacts lead some organizations to demand higher levels of factual evidence before committing to large-scale investments.

The author contends that current decision-making is 'hard-wired' to historical climate averages and relies on reactive disaster response, which is insufficient for the scale and uncertainty of climate change. Using examples like paddy farming in Indonesia and the 2005 Mumbai floods, the paper illustrates how reliance on 'normalcy' bandwidths and outdated infrastructure creates vulnerability. The author proposes a transition to anticipatory risk management based on a better understanding of risk thresholds, politically-mediated determinations of 'acceptable' resiliency levels, and an integrated approach that considers non-climate shocks such as population growth.

The report examines the evolution of public utility regulation, contrasting legal-based regulation with contract-based concessions. It argues that contract-based systems, particularly in water and sanitation, are prone to opportunistic bidding, under-investment, and frequent renegotiations. The author advocates for the application of common principles of law—including efficiency, good faith, and the ability to implement ex-post regulation—to protect public interests and ensure service sustainability, noting a significant gap between these national regulatory standards and the decisions of international investment arbitration courts.

The report analyzes how global trends in climate change, energy, and biotechnology affect the competitiveness, social priorities, and risk management of Canadian agriculture. It finds that while warming trends may increase yields and competitive advantage, these gains are offset by increased vulnerability to extreme weather and emerging social demands for sustainable and healthy food systems.

The report identifies critical stresses on biodiversity, food and fibre provision, water supply, and fuel provision across Mali, linking these ecological declines to threats in human nourishment, water access, energy, and livelihoods. It highlights the southern regions of Sikasso, Mopti, and Segou as high-priority areas due to the convergence of high population density, poverty, and deteriorating ecosystem services.

The report identifies five critical stressed ecosystem services in Mozambique: biodiversity, food and fibre provision, water supply/purification/regulation, fuel provision, and flood regulation. It links these ecological stresses to threats in human well-being, specifically the ability to be nourished, access clean water, obtain energy, earn a livelihood, and remain secure against extreme events. The analysis highlights that Gaza, Manica, Nampula, Sofala, and Tete are the most critical regions where all five ecosystem services and well-being constituents are threatened. High population density in Nampula and Zambezia also makes them priority areas due to severe chronic malnutrition and poor water access.

The report finds that global progress toward the human development MDGs is inadequate, with Sub-Saharan Africa off track for every goal. It identifies critical bottlenecks in the supply of skilled health and education workers and a disconnect between the need for recurrent personnel funding and the technical assistance provided by donors. The document advocates for pragmatic human resource strategies, such as using paraprofessionals and contract teachers, and calls for a shift toward predictable, budget-aligned donor support and improved public sector accountability to ensure services reach the poorest populations.